Fantasy Football 2023: WR Projected Strength of Schedule says arrows up for Chris Olave & Christian Watson

Not all young receivers have a smashable schedule, so target those who do

I've always believed that Fantasy Football is all about the matchups, and I've always hated the concept of Strength of Schedule.

One day about four years ago, I thought about what it would take to make a Strength of Schedule that would be beneficial to Fantasy managers.

Obviously it meant analyzing each defense. Because, hello, defenses are what make the matchups.

But it had to be more than that. It meant having to dig into every single defensive player, how they fit into the defensive scheme they're playing in, who they're playing for, who's backing them up, how each team defends certain positions, and so on.

That seemed like a lot of work.

But I tried it. And it wasn't perfect, it did help.

In the years since I've perfected the process, and while injuries and surprising play -- both in a good way and in a bad way -- will alter how defenses do, I like the concept of what I've built: The Projected Strength of Schedule (or PSoS) for every position on every team. At minimum, it will give you a potential tiebreaker when debating between two players in your drafts. At most, it's a warning sign to avoid certain position groups across the league.

If you're reading this, you're on the page that breaks down the PSoS for wide receivers. You'll find out about the players who have easy projected schedules, difficult projected schedules, and everyone in between. If you're interested in the methodology behind these numbers, you should read this. 

For now, here's a look at how each offense's wideouts rank in term of PSoS, with 1 being the easiest and 32 being the toughest. There's a table for the whole season, the first four weeks of the season (who might get off to a hot start?!) and Weeks 15 through 17 (Fantasy playoffs).

• Full PSoS rankings by position: QB | RB | WR | TE  

I'll highlight some players after these ranks so please remember to scroll all the way through.

Season-long PSoS for WRs

GB	1	JAX	17
NO	2	MIN	18
HOU	3	DEN	19
ATL	4	LV	20
CLE	5	KC	21
IND	6	LAC	22
CHI	7	ARI	23
SF	8	LAR	24
CIN	9	DAL	25
PIT	10	PHI	26
TB	11	WAS	27
DET	12	NYJ	28
CAR	13	MIA	29
TEN	14	NE	29
BAL	15	BUF	31
SEA	16	NYG	32

Weeks 1-4 PSoS for WRs

SF	1	PHI	17
JAX	2	LAR	18
IND	3	CLE	19
HOU	4	DET	19
GB	5	NO	21
LAC	6	BUF	22
SEA	7	NYG	23
KC	8	WAS	23
CAR	9	CHI	25
DEN	10	TEN	26
BAL	11	MIN	27
CIN	11	LV	28
TB	13	MIA	29
PIT	14	ARI	30
ATL	15	NYJ	31
DAL	16	NE	32

Weeks 15-17 PSoS for WRs

ATL	1	TB	17
IND	2	NYG	18
CHI	3	LAR	19
PHI	4	WAS	19
SF	5	JAX	21
NO	6	DEN	22
LV	7	SEA	23
CIN	8	ARI	24
CLE	9	DET	24
GB	9	MIN	24
TEN	11	BAL	27
CAR	12	NE	28
PIT	13	NYJ	29
HOU	14	DAL	30
KC	15	BUF	31
LAC	16	MIA	32

Biggest winners

D.J. Moore, Bears: Loaded with the seventh-easiest PSoS among receivers, Moore was already expected to collect more targets than anyone else in Chicago. Now he'll do so without seeing many tough projected pass defenses other than the Packers, Broncos, Saints and Browns. To be fair, he'll see a slew of above-average pass defenses, so it won't be a walk through Grant Park, but it should at minimum be easier than what he would've had to deal with if he were still in Carolina.

Christian Watson & Romeo Doubs, Packers: None of the top 10 toughest projected pass coverage units are on the Packers schedule this year. Not one. That's a great help to Love's development, but it should also pave the way for Watson and Doubs to make a bunch of quality plays.

Chris Olave & Michael Thomas, Saints: Playing with the best pass defenses in the NFC South has its privileges. Facing the AFC South is a bonus. Only two of the Saints' games in 2023 are against projected top 10 pass coverage units (Green Bay in Week 3, New England in Week 5). You have two opportunities here: You could draft Olave or Thomas and hope to get some good numbers early, or you could pass on them on Draft Day and potentially steal them in trade after Week 5 when their schedule gets even easier.

Biggest losers

Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, Commanders: After a terrific matchup versus the Cardinals in Week 1, the Commanders will see the Broncos, Bills and Eagles, then later have a stretch that includes showdowns against the Eagles, Patriots, Cowboys and Dolphins. In total Washington will play nine games against projected top 7 pass coverage units. McLaurin is no stranger to beating tough matchups including in division, and Dotson should take a step forward, but neither should be reached for.

Marquise Brown, Cardinals: Fantasy managers might be fine with Brown's first two games against the Commanders and the Giants, but he figures to be smothered against the Cowboys, 49ers and Bengals after that. Overall he has the 10th hardest projected schedule for the year and the third toughest in Weeks 1 through 4 ... and this is before considering any quarterback problems he might have to deal with.

Gabe Davis, Bills: Never mind how Davis may have wasted his shot to be a standout target in Buffalo last year, this year the Bills receivers will see the second-toughest projected set of matchups. That includes early-season dates with the Jets and Dolphins and a late-season finish with the Cowboys, Chargers and Patriots. This is easy to ignore for a target magnet like Diggs, but particularly in the wake of Buffalo adding to its offense this spring, it could mean trouble for Davis' production.

Don't draft them, trade for them

Garrett Wilson, Jets: Look, the Jets' entire schedule is difficult in part because they're in the AFC East. But Wilson's first three games are against top-six projected pass coverage squads in the Bills, Cowboys and Patriots, then a date with the Eagles in Week 6. His talent is unbelievable so he could post some major numbers even against top-shelf squads, but I don't love his chances to do so in his very first few games with Aaron Rodgers. If you don't draft him, you should be able to acquire him cheaply if he starts slowly. 

Treylon Burks, Titans: That second-year breakout for Burks might have to wait a month since the Titans open the year against the Saints, Chargers, Browns and Bengals, each of whom have quality cornerbacks capable of keeping Burks from breaking away for big gains. Tack on a low-volume passing game and you may need to exercise some serious patience when dealing with Burks.

Jordan Addison, Vikings: The rookie's first four games come against the Bucs, Eagles, Chargers and Panthers. The Eagles rank elite and the other three earned decent grades; only the Panthers are thin on multiple quality cornerbacks. It's just a difficult start for someone who should be a good contributor for the year.

Draft them, then consider selling high

DK Metcalf, Seahawks: We're assuming rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba will play a lot in the slot, forcing Tyler Lockett to play out wide. It means Lockett will vie with Metcalf for those perimeter throws from Geno Smith --- and do not forget that Lockett out-scored Metcalf per game in Fantasy over each of the past two seasons. Both could feel a small target crunch with Smith-Njigba coming aboard, but a tougher slate starting in Week 8 against Cleveland could make life tougher for Metcalf, whose name recognition might fetch him more value if he starts off strong.

Calvin Ridley & Christian Kirk, Jaguars: Everyone's excited about these two catching passes from Trevor Lawrence but they have the second-easiest projected schedule through Week 4 and then a below-average projected schedule after. It's because one-third of their weak divisional schedule and a game against the Falcons all happen at the start of the season.

Mike Williams, Chargers: Week 1 won't be easy against the Dolphins, but games against the Titans, Vikings and Raiders after that could be fertile ground for a huge early-season start like he had in 2021. I'd move off of him immediately if that happens -- not only do the Chargers schedule toughen up after that, but eventually rookie Quentin Johnston will take hold in the offense and cost Williams (and Keenan Allen) some upside.