Analyzing Fantasy Football is about studying offense. The schemes, the coaches, the players. You get it.
But for one large assignment every offseason, I study defense: the schemes, the coaches, the players. You'll get why.
Since I started working on Fantasy Football as a young lad in 2003 I've passionately believed that weekly lineup decisions are all about the matchups. Great players are must-starts every week, but everyone else should be subjected to who they play and how they might dominate or get dominated weekly.
So instead of waiting to see which defenses will be good, or leaning on some weak "strength of schedule" story that uses old information, I dig into the weeds on every single team.
I crunch stats and review film. I study their scheme and their tendencies based on who's coaching, and I also spend a lot of time looking at how defenders play in specific situations -- against the run, rushing the quarterback, playing against the pass, covering tight ends and running backs. I don't just study the starters either; I'll look at the backups too because injuries are sure to happen and teams with bad depth get burned.
It all leads to grades that I give every defense in each of those five categories. You'll be able to see those below and react to them either via email (drichard@cbs.com) or on X (@daverichard) or Instagram (@DaveRichardNFL).
Once that's done I apply the grades to each team's schedule to form a cumulative grade. That creates a Projected Strength of Schedule (PSoS) that considers current rosters, current schemes and a subjective, researched opinion. And it's not one singular grade to cover an entire defense -- it's a blended grade based on those aforementioned five categories that are applied specifically to each team's offensive skill positions.
The blends to determine grades:
- QUARTERBACK: 50% of the pass rush grade and 50% of the pass coverage grade.
- RUNNING BACK: 85% of the run defense grade and 15% of the pass coverage against RBs.
- WIDE RECEIVER: 80% of the pass coverage grade and 20% of the pass rush grade (because pass rushes impact pass catchers).
- TIGHT END: 85% of the TE pass coverage grade and 15% of the pass rush grade (most tight end targets are short and thus aren't affected as much by a pass rush).
Teams are slightly penalized for three-game road trips, playing in Europe or, new for this year, playing multiple Thursday night games on a short week (through Week 13; the NFL will flex Thursday night games starting in Week 14).
The higher the grade, the tougher the schedule. Instead of listing some number between 94 and 122, I rank them based on the cumulative total -- the lowest number is 1, the next lowest is 2, and so on.
If your team is ranked No. 1, your team's specific skill position has the easiest PSoS. If your team is ranked No. 32, your team's specific skill position has the hardest PSoS.
Full PSoS rankings by position: QB | RB | WR | TE
You should also benefit from the in-season version of the Projected Strength of Schedule rankings, exclusively on SportsLine. Each week I update the database and reveal which players have favorable or unfavorable matchups down the line. It's a cheat code for trades. Sign up now (or whenever) and use the promo code DAVE for a special deal on your first month, plus you can cancel anytime.
Now you know how I came up with a Projected Strength of Schedule for every position on every team. If you're reading this and feel exhausted, I don't blame you. Imagine doing the research for it!
Defensive grades: Pass rush
| CLE | 10 | JAC | 7.5 |
| KC | 10 | NYG | 7.5 |
| SF | 10 | CHI | 7 |
| GB | 9.5 | MIA | 7 |
| PIT | 9.5 | MIN | 7 |
| HOU | 9 | NE | 7 |
| BUF | 8.5 | NO | 7 |
| DAL | 8.5 | DEN | 6.5 |
| LAC | 8.5 | SEA | 6.5 |
| NYJ | 8.5 | TB | 6 |
| PHI | 8.5 | ATL | 5.5 |
| BAL | 8 | WAS | 5.5 |
| IND | 8 | LAR | 5 |
| LV | 8 | TEN | 5 |
| CIN | 7.5 | CAR | 4.5 |
| DET | 7.5 | ARI | 4 |
Defensive grades: Pass coverage
| CLE | 9 | SEA | 7 |
| NYJ | 9 | ATL | 6.5 |
| SF | 9 | DEN | 6.5 |
| BAL | 8 | HOU | 6.5 |
| CHI | 8 | LAR | 6.5 |
| DAL | 8 | NE | 6.5 |
| TEN | 8 | DET | 6 |
| BUF | 7.5 | IND | 6 |
| CIN | 7.5 | MIN | 6 |
| LAC | 7.5 | TB | 6 |
| NO | 7.5 | JAC | 5.5 |
| PHI | 7.5 | LV | 5.5 |
| GB | 7 | NYG | 5 |
| KC | 7 | CAR | 4.5 |
| MIA | 7 | ARI | 4 |
| PIT | 7 | WAS | 3.5 |
Defensive grades: Pass coverage vs. RB
| SF | 8.5 | HOU | 6 |
| TB | 8 | SEA | 6 |
| ATL | 7.5 | CAR | 5.5 |
| BAL | 7.5 | GB | 5.5 |
| BUF | 7.5 | KC | 5.5 |
| DET | 7.5 | NYJ | 5.5 |
| LAR | 7 | CHI | 5 |
| NO | 7 | LAC | 5 |
| PHI | 7 | MIN | 5 |
| PIT | 7 | NE | 5 |
| CLE | 6.5 | CIN | 4.5 |
| IND | 6.5 | NYG | 4.5 |
| JAC | 6.5 | DAL | 3.5 |
| LV | 6.5 | TEN | 3.5 |
| MIA | 6.5 | DEN | 3 |
| WAS | 6.5 | ARI | 2.5 |
Defensive grades: Pass coverage vs. TE
| PIT | 8.5 | NE | 6 |
| BUF | 8 | TB | 6 |
| NYJ | 8 | CIN | 5.5 |
| SF | 8 | CLE | 5.5 |
| LAC | 7.5 | KC | 5.5 |
| ATL | 7 | MIN | 5.5 |
| BAL | 7 | NYG | 5.5 |
| NO | 7 | SEA | 5.5 |
| CHI | 6.5 | TEN | 5.5 |
| DET | 6.5 | CAR | 5 |
| HOU | 6.5 | LV | 5 |
| IND | 6.5 | PHI | 5 |
| GB | 6 | DAL | 4.5 |
| JAC | 6 | DEN | 4 |
| LAR | 6 | WAS | 4 |
| MIA | 6 | ARI | 3.5 |
Defensive grades: Run defense
| SF | 9 | TB | 7 |
| BAL | 8.5 | BUF | 6.5 |
| CLE | 8 | DET | 6.5 |
| IND | 8 | LV | 6.5 |
| NYJ | 8 | MIN | 6.5 |
| PHI | 8 | NO | 6.5 |
| PIT | 8 | LAR | 6 |
| ATL | 7.5 | NYG | 6 |
| DAL | 7.5 | WAS | 6 |
| GB | 7.5 | CAR | 5.5 |
| KC | 7.5 | SEA | 5.5 |
| NE | 7.5 | JAC | 5 |
| CHI | 7 | MIA | 5 |
| CIN | 7 | TEN | 5 |
| HOU | 7 | DEN | 4.5 |
| LAC | 7 | ARI | 4 |
