Fantasy Football ADP Review: Leonard Fournette set to plummet, while Joe Mixon turning into a value
Here's whose stock is up and down heading into the final draft weekend.
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2 min read
Leonard Fournette's Average Draft Position in CBS Fantasy football leagues was already trending in the wrong direction before the Jaguars released him Monday. Now, expect his ADP to plummet until we find out his new team. And the ADP for the guys left in Jacksonville — Ryquell Armstead and Chris Thompson in particular — should be on the rise.
As of Monday morning, Fournette's ADP was at RB21 at 41.6 overall. That was always too early, and I wasn't drafting him until Round 5 at the earliest in any format. He was a bust candidate from earlier this offseason, and it wasn't that shocking that Jacksonville released him. The only shock was that it happened with just two weeks left before Week 1.
He could still sign with a team and get a decent role, of course. Chicago makes some sense given Fournette's history with Bears quarterbacks coach John DeFilippo in Jacksonville and David Montgomery's groin putting him in doubt for Week 1. Fournette would be solid depth behind Montgomery and Tarik Cohen.
But we're now in wait-and-see mode with Fournette, and hopefully he doesn't sign somewhere and wreck a favorable backfield (Philadelphia comes to mind). If you're drafting before he ends up with a new team, it has to be in the Round 10 range, similar to where you're selecting guys like Chase Edmonds, Alexander Mattison and Tony Pollard as handcuffs/lottery tickets.
In Jacksonville, we're left with what looks like a committee, so don't overvalue anyone. Thompson is my favorite option in PPR given his expected role on a bad team that will likely be chasing points, and he has a track record with new offensive coordinator Jay Gruden from their days in Washington. The earliest I would consider Thompson is Round 9, and he currently doesn't have an ADP on CBS Sports.
I would draft Armstead after Thompson in PPR (Armstead slightly ahead in non-PPR leagues), but he also doesn't have an ADP on CBS Sports yet. But don't be surprised if Armstead is sharing carries with Devine Ozigbo and James Robinson in what could be a messy backfield, however.
The ADP for Fournette and all of the running backs left in Jacksonville will change. For now, let's take a look at some recent changes in ADP as the season is getting loser.
ADP Review
Risers and Fallers
QB Riser
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I had Minshew in this spot prior to the Fournette news, but he should benefit as a Fantasy quarterback with the running back situation potentially falling apart. We saw last year that Minshew can be a capable Fantasy passer, and he also has the ability to be a top-five rusher at his position. You can draft Minshew with one of your last selections, and he could emerge as a low-end starter in all leagues.
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Other quarterback risers: Matthew Stafford (up to QB14) and Ben Roethlisberger (up to QB17)
QB Faller
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Wentz is having everything fall apart around him with Jalen Reagor (shoulder) now expected to be out 3-4 weeks. Along with that, Wentz lost two offensive linemen for the season in Andre Dillard (biceps) and Brandon Brooks (Achilles); Miles Sanders (hamstring) is hurt too, and Alshon Jeffery (foot) might not be ready for Week 1. Oh, and Wentz is now battling a back injury of his own. I dropped Wentz from QB8 to QB11, but his ADP is lower than that as QB12 at No. 90.7 overall. Wentz is still a No. 1 Fantasy quarterback, but his stock is on the decline.
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Other quarterback fallers: Cam Newton (down to QB15) and Baker Mayfield (down to QB18)
RB Risers
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The rookie has seen his ADP rise to RB27 at No. 66.8 overall because teammate Darrell Henderson (hamstring) is missing time in training camp. Henderson can still be ready for Week 1, and Malcolm Brown will be a factor for the Rams, but Akers has top-20 upside this season, and he could emerge as a weekly starter sooner rather than later in all leagues.
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Cohen is another running back who has benefited from an injury with Montgomery (groin) going down in training camp. Cohen is better in PPR than non-PPR leagues, but his ADP is on the rise to RB31 at No. 86.0 overall. In fact, he's one spot behind Montgomery now, but that could change if Montgomery misses the first week of the season. I like drafting Cohen as a high-end flex in PPR as early as Round 6.
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Reports out of Denver suggest that Lindsay and Melvin Gordon could be in an equal timeshare this season, which makes drafting Lindsay as RB33 at No. 87.7 overall a good value. It was even better when you got Lindsay at a discount prior to the start of training camp. I still expect Gordon to lead the Broncos in touches this season, as well as receptions and touchdowns, but Lindsay might not be far behind. He's a good flex option to open the year in all leagues.
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Other running backs risers: Zack Moss (up to RB38), Chase Edmonds (up to RB48), Damien Harris (up to RB49)
RB Fallers
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My colleague Pete Prisco spoke to Bengals coach Zac Taylor on Monday for CBS Sports HQ, and Taylor said Mixon would return soon from his absence due to migraines. There was some speculation Mixon was sitting out due to ongoing contract negotiations, but hopefully Mixon is back on the field and shows he's ready to go for this season. He's down to RB13 at No. 19.4 overall, and I would love to get him at the value in Round 2.
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Singletary is down to RB24 at No. 56.5 overall, and he should continue to slide based on everything we've heard out of Bills camp. Zack Moss is having a strong camp, while Singletary has struggled, especially with fumbles. It seems like Moss is going to make this an even timeshare, and Singletary may end up as the lower part of this duo. I'd much rather wait for Moss than target Singletary in Round 5.
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Swift was able to return to practice Monday on a limited basis, but he's a lot of time in training camp with a leg injury. That has dropped his ADP to RB29 at No. 74.0 overall, and it's helped the stock for Kerryon Johnson. I would still rather have Swift than Johnson, but it's closer now because of the injury. Hopefully, by the middle of the season, Swift is leading the Lions in touches and is able to be a starting Fantasy option.
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Other running back fallers: David Montgomery (down to RB30 at No. 81.7 overall, Antonio Gibson (down to RB42), Darrell Henderson (down to RB45))
WR Risers
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McLaurin is up to WR23 at No. 63.4 overall, and that's a steal if you can get him in that spot. I'm expecting a huge sophomore season for McLaurin, and I like him as a top-20 Fantasy receiver in all leagues. I would draft McLaurin as early as Round 4.
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Gallup is up to WR31 at No. 81.0 overall, and he's a great No. 3 Fantasy receiver to target in all leagues in this range. While other Fantasy managers are chasing Amari Cooper or waiting on CeeDee Lamb, you can make the smart move and draft Gallup, who still has top-20 upside. He's a third-year receiver in 2020, and a breakout campaign could still happen despite playing in a crowded receiving corps.
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Williams is flying up draft boards with an ADP at WR47 at No. 123.3 overall, and I would expect him to be closer to the Round 7 or 8 range by this weekend. The Dolphins are counting on Williams to play a prominent role as the No. 2 receiver behind DeVante Parker, but he could prove to be better than Parker this season. Williams could be a low-end starter in all leagues this year.
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Other wide receiver risers: Stefon Diggs (up to WR25), Golden Tate (up to WR54), DeSean Jackson (up to WR55)
WR Fallers
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Johnson is down to WR41 at No. 110.7 overall, and the time he's missed time in training camp due to a leg injury isn't helping. When healthy, Johnson should be the No. 2 receiver for the Steelers behind JuJu Smith-Schuster, and he has the chance to be a low-end starter in all leagues. But any absence will help the cause for guys like James Washington and rookie Chase Claypool, which should hurt Johnson as a Fantasy asset. That said, if you get him at a cheaper price, he could deliver a better reward this season.
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Slayton is down to WR46 at No. 122.1 overall, and he's becoming a great value pick in this spot. I can see Sterling Shepard being better than Slayton in PPR, but Slayton has the highest ceiling of the Giants' receivers in 2020 after the way he performed in his rookie campaign. Slayton is a great No. 4 Fantasy receiver in all leagues, especially at this price.
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Reagor is going to continue to fall after the shoulder injury he suffered over the weekend is expected to keep him out as long as a month. He's at WR52 and No. 133.1 overall, and even that could be too soon given his absence. I had high hopes for Reagor this year, but he's not someone I plan to draft much now given his injury.
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Other wide receiver fallers: Julian Edelman (down to WR34), Marvin Jones (down to WR37), Jerry Jeudy (down to WR42)
TE Riser
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Henry is up to TE8 and No. 80.8 overall, and he should benefit with Mike Williams dealing with a shoulder injury because he should see some additional targets. Henry has the chance to be a top-five Fantasy tight end in all leagues, even with Tyrod Taylor replacing the departed Philip Rivers. This could be a huge season for Henry, who is in a contract year and looking for a big payday.
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Other tight end risers: Blake Jarwin (up to TE17) and Chris Herndon (up to TE18)
TE Faller
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Cook was being drafted as the TE9 as recentily as last week, but he's now down to TE11 at No. 100.3. That's still too soon for me, and I'd rather have guys like Herndon and Jarwin ahead of Cook this year, along with T.J. Hockenson and Noah Fant. Cook benefited from plenty of touchdowns in 2019, and I don't expect him to perform at the same level in 2020.
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Other tight end fallers: Austin Hooper (down to TE12) and T.J. Hockenson (down to TE15)
Which players are poised for breakouts, which sleepers do you need to jump on, and which busts should you avoid at all costs in your Fantasy football league? Visit SportsLine now to get early rankings, plus see which WR is going to come out of nowhere to crack the top 10, all from the model that out-performed experts big time last season.
