In many ways, Week 2 is far more dangerous than Week 1. Even the most novice Fantasy manager can be convinced that something that happened Week 1 was just a fluke. When it happens two weeks in a row, that's twice as difficult, at least. This appears to be especially true if it's negative and it's resulted in an 0-2 start. And I'd guess there's a very good chance that's exactly where some people who drafted Robert Woods and Mike Davis are.
While it is true that we know more than we did a week ago, that still doesn't mean that knowledge should overrule everything we believed coming into the season. With that in mind, Woods is a great place to start.
Robert Woods is no longer a must-start WR
The Case: Through two weeks (before Monday Night Football), Robert Woods is WR40 in full PPR. He has scored exactly the same number of Fantasy points as Braxton Berrios and 40% of the Fantasy points of his teammate, Cooper Kupp, who is the No. 1 receiver in Fantasy. Speaking of teammates, Van Jefferson has more receiving yards than Woods.
It seems clear that with Matthew Stafford under center the offense will lean more on Kupp and the big play. And right now, Woods is not involved in the big plays. Until he is, you should leave him on your bench.
The Verdict: Don't believe it.
Woods had nine targets in Week 2. He has a 23.6% target share on the season and he's seen 26.3% of the Rams air yards. Those are the numbers of a starting wide receiver, especially in an offense that looks as prolific as this one.
We have seen stretches in Sean McVay's offense where one guy dominates touches. There were multiple Todd Gurley stretches, the infamous Tyler Higbee stretch, and even a couple of Woods stretches last year. While I would expect Kupp to be better than Woods rest of season, I have little doubt there is another Woods stretch coming in 2021. Keep him in your lineup unless you have multiple top-20 receivers to replace him.
Time for Week 2 Believe It or Not.— Heath Cummings (@heathcummingssr) September 20, 2021
Robert Woods is no longer a must-start wide receiver.
Courtland Sutton is a top-24 WR rest of season
The Case: In his first game without Jerry Jeudy, Sutton set career highs with nine catches for 159 yards on 12 targets against Jacksonville. It was a far cry from his 14-yard performance in Week 1, as Sutton was constantly being targeted downfield, accumulating a league-best 258 air yards. Sutton is the clear alpha in Denver until Jeudy returns and this time building rapport with Bridgewater will be valuable even when Jeudy returns.
The Verdict: Believe it.
While at least some of the success can be attributed to the (lack of) defense, Teddy Bridgewater treated Sutton like a true No. 1 receiver and Sutton erased any doubts about whether he was 100% recovered from his torn ACL. What was perhaps most encouraging was the aggressiveness displayed by Bridgewater. He looked very much like a quarterback Sutton could thrive with.
Until Jeudy returns, Sutton is a high-end No. 2 receiver who will have top-12 weeks. Once Jeudy is back to full speed, I'd expect the two will be less reliable low-end No. 2 options. Either way, Sutton looks like a great profit where you drafted him.
Courtland Sutton is a top-24 wide receiver rest of season.— Heath Cummings (@heathcummingssr) September 20, 2021
Sony Michel is a must-start RB if Darrell Henderson is out
The Case: Through two weeks, Rams running backs have combined for 217 total yards and two touchdowns. What's even better is that almost all of those touches went to Darrell Henderson until he was hurt and then to Michel when Henderson left the game. Through two games no other running back on the team has logged a carry or a catch.
That type of workload, in this type of offense, is worth a start no matter what your name is.
The Verdict: Don't believe it.
Everything I said above is true, but Michel and the Rams face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 3. And it looks like, once again, almost no running back should be considered must-start against them. Yes, Cordarrelle Patterson just scored two touchdowns against them (more on him below), but I would not want to bet on that type of role in the passing game for Michel.
He's a must-add and a flex in a pinch in Week 3 if Henderson can't play. If the absence stretches into Week 4 against the Cardinals we can talk about must start.
Sony Michel is a must-start running back if Darrell Henderson is out.— Heath Cummings (@heathcummingssr) September 20, 2021
Alvin Kamara is the only Saint worth rostering in 1-QB leagues
The Case: A week after destroying the Packers, the Saints looked like one of the worst offenses in the NFL against the Carolina Panthers. Jameis Winston completed just 50% of his passes, the team averaged 2.8 yards per carry, and no one had even 30 yards receiving. The only spark they received at all was when Taysom Hill ran twice for 16 yards.
You're obviously not going to panic about Kamara, but the rest of this offense looks completely lost. Winston can be dropped in any one-QB league and there's no reason to hold Juwan Johnson, Marquez Callaway, or Adam Trautman either. Michael Thomas, in an IR spot, is the only other Saint who deserves a roster spot.
The Verdict: Don't believe it.
While he did nothing in Week 2, Tony Jones is absolutely worthy of a roster spot at least until we get to the byes. And many leagues still don't have IR spots, in those leagues Michael Thomas is 100% worth one of your five bench spots. While I wouldn't argue with dropping the rest of those guys, I fully expect Winston will be back on our radar in a week or two and if he's not then Taysom Hill may be.
Alvin Kamara is the only Saint who belongs on active one-QB Fantasy rosters.— Heath Cummings (@heathcummingssr) September 20, 2021
Cordarrelle Patterson will score more points than Mike Davis
The Case: What a gross start to the season for Davis. He's turned 24 carries and 13 targets into 135 total yards. His 3.7 yards per target is only slightly better than his 3.6 yards per target. It would be easy to cite Davis' touch schedule as a reason for his struggle if not for how much better Patterson has performed.
Patterson has 136 yards and two touchdowns on just 14 carries and eight targets. He's been far more efficient on both a per carry and per target basis and he was heavily involved in the red zone in Week 2. I know it's hard to believe in Patterson as a Fantasy option, but he's a better option than Davis.
The Verdict: Don't believe it...yet.
I want to be clear. I do think Patterson should be rostered everywhere and I don't think you can start Mike Davis in any format right now. But the team is still throwing the ball to Davis a lot and I think Patterson has had a little bit of good fortune in his early production.
In other words, I don't buy this yet, but I also wouldn't rule out that Arthur Smith or Dave Ragone is starting to buy it. If that happens, and Patterson starts getting 15 touches per game, we won't have any choice. Both Davis and Patterson should be on your bench until we find out more, but I'd still bet on Davis being the better option rest of season.
Cordarrelle Patterson will score more Fantasy points this season than Mike Davis.— Heath Cummings (@heathcummingssr) September 20, 2021