Fantasy Football Believe It or Not: Gus Edwards must-start, drop Golden Tate?
After Week 11 Heath Cummings looks at whether you should drop one highly owned player.
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Gus Edwards is a must-start running back.
You'll be forgiven if your initial response is "who?" but you need to get familiar with Edwards before Tuesday's waiver wire. He was an undrafted running back who played his college ball at Miami and Rutgers. Follow college ball and don't remember him? He never topped 800 yards in a season in college. So yeah, he came out of nowhere. But he's here now.
Edwards ran the ball 17 times Sunday and picked up 115 yards and a touchdown against the Bengals. He was used far more than Alex Collins, and he took advantage of a great matchup to post top-10 numbers at running back. The first step is to add Edwards, but then you need to get him into your starting lineup.
Verdict: Believe it.
I was really excited about Collins this week because of the holes I expected Lamar Jackson to open up for him. The process was right, but the running back was wrong. The Ravens ran the ball 54 times against Cincinnati on Sunday and it worked. They came away with a very important win. Now they face the Raiders in a game that may not require a pass. Expect the Ravens to feed Edwards and him to deliver against another fantastic matchup.
You should drop Golden Tate.
Doug Pederson told us Tate was going to be more involved, and he was, but it didn't help much in Fantasy. Tate scored four points in a non-PPR league and didn't reach double digits in PPR. In two games in Philadelphia he has a total of seven catches for 67 yards. It's simply too late in the year to reserve a roster spot for a player who has given you so little as of late.
Verdict: Don't believe it.
In his second game with his new team, Tate led the Eagles in targets. I do not expect this offense to be this bad the rest of the year (more on that later), and you don't drop a target leader for a good offense because of a bad game. Forget about his first game with the team, it's clear now he was just getting his feet wet. Tate should be held, and probably started in most PPR leagues this week.
You can't trust any Titans with Blaine Gabbert under center.
To be clear, we don't yet know the extent of Marcus Mariota's elbow injury, but initial reports sound a lot like his previous injury, which resulted in Mariota losing feeling in his fingers. Gabbert came in to replace him and it went about how you'd expect. The Titans backup has now played a part of four games this year and has posted 5.9 Y/A and thrown as many interceptions and touchdowns. You'd like to cite the small sample size and hope for something more, but those numbers match his career marks almost perfectly. You can't trust any Titans until Mariota returns.
Verdict: Believe it.
The one positive of a Gabbert start would be for the running backs. The Titans went extremely run-heavy the last time he started. Unfortunately, this week they face a Texans defense that has been the third-best in the league in terms of yards per carry. With Dion Lewis and Derrick Henry sharing carries, you can't view either as more than a flex. I'll hold on to Corey Davis until we get more details about Mariota's future, but if the Titans shut Mariota down, I'll be dropping Davis.
You should buy back into Jordan Reed.
Colt McCoy took over after a gruesome injury to Alex Smith and anyone who was still trusting Reed could not have been pleased. But it turned out pretty well. Reed had his best game of the season, catching seven passes for 71 yards and scoring for the second time this year. That touchdown came from McCoy, who completed seven of 11 passes for 128 yards. If Reed was sitting on your bench for this performance, you should get him back in your lineup for Week 12.
Verdict: Believe it.
I had a hard time ever giving up on Reed because the target numbers had been so good. For the season, he's now fourth at tight end in targets. It hasn't resulted in much in the way of Fantasy points, but there's reason to think his success could continue this week. Reed faces a Cowboys team that has given up double-digit Fantasy points to the position three straight weeks including a massive 14-145-2 line to Zach Ertz. Plan on starting Reed unless you have an elite alternative.
It's time to bench Carson Wentz.
That was a terrible performance. Facing one of the best matchups a quarterback can find, Wentz threw for just 156 yards, zero touchdowns and three interceptions. I'm going to assume if you started him, you lost (you'd have been better off starting Nick Foles, who didn't play) but hopefully you're still in the playoff race. It was made quite clear you can't trust Wentz with your season on the line. Especially since his Week 12 matchup is more difficult.
Verdict: Don't believe it.
You know better than this. Wentz (and his offensive line) ran into a buzz saw. It was an awful performance. But you're not benching him at home against the Giants. This is a near perfect situation for Wentz. His defense is so beat up it isn't going to be able to stop anyone, and he has the best set of weapons he's ever had. The one major problem for this offense is pass blocking, and the Eagles are facing a Giants team that has 11 sacks all season. Only the Raiders have fewer. Wentz will have to time he needs in the pocket in Week 12, and he'll pick this Giants defense apart. Stick with him.
So who should you sit and start? And what shocking QB could win you Week 12? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy football rankings for every single position, and see which shocking QB finishes in the top 10 this week, all from the model that out-performed experts big time last season.
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