With the way things looked on Saturday afternoon, you've gotta feel pretty fortunate we even got to see as much football as we did Sunday. While that was great, it was definitively not great to lose Austin Ekeler and Nick Chubb from our Fantasy rosters — or to have to consider who to replace them with on waivers. As of Sunday night we don't know how severe their injuries are, but you can check back here for updates throughout Monday. Until then, let's take a look at some of the other major happenings of Week 4 and try to figure out which narratives you can believe and what you can ignore.
"You should sell high on Joe Mixon."
First things first, that was a relief. After three straight duds to open the season, Mixon finally delivered with 181 total yards and three touchdowns against the Jacksonville Jaguars. And you know what? You should do what you can to see if that was enough to convince anyone that Mixon is once again worthy of first-round value in trade
Verdict: Believe it.
Admittedly, this may be difficult. We've lost a lot of running backs in the first month of the season, so if Mixon is your only reliable running back, I understand. But I'd sure like to try to move him after this game. Mixon is still a talented back stuck on a bad team with a very bad offensive line. He's still going to share passing downs with Giovani Bernard. Maybe most importantly, he's still facing the Ravens and Colts in the next two weeks. He has two games with the Steelers left on the schedule as well.
So who do you target if you're looking to move Mixon? If you're one of the few teams in the league with running back depth, I'd aim for Michael Thomas, Julio Jones, or Davante Adams. If you don't have the luxury of giving up a running back without getting one back, I'd be checking in with the Miles Sanders manager. Josh Jacobs too. If I was somehow 3-1 with Mixon on my roster, I would check in with the Christian McCaffrey manager, too.
Bottom line, I expect Mixon will finish the year around RB12 if he plays 16 games. He's just not going to be the RB12 very often, and there are several more landmine games ahead. If you can get out after his best performance of the season, I would.
We recapped Week 4 and took an early look at the waiver wire on Fantasy Football Today Sunday night. Listen below and head to Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts to subscribe:
"Odell Beckham is back as a top-12 Fantasy receiver."
Not far behind Mixon's big day was the resurgence of Odell Beckham. He had nearly as many yards rushing (73) as he did receiving (81) and scored three touchdowns in the Browns victory over the Cowboys. Simply put, Beckham looked like the superstar we knew in New York. He was flying all around the field and moving like he did several years ago. He's back a Fantasy No. 1 in Kevin Stefanski's new offense.
Verdict: Don't believe it.
The Browns ran the ball 40 times in this game. While it was awesome to see this performance from Beckham, he scored on a 50-yard reverse and a 37-yard pass from Jarvis Landry. This was not the type of performance you'd call sustainable. Which is perfectly fine, Fantasy players should still enjoy it. But much like Mixon, I'd be selling if anyone thought Beckham was back as a truly elite No. 1 receiver.
Baker Mayfield is averaging fewer than 30 pass attempts per game, and through four games, it's working; the Browns are 3-1. When Beckham was at his best in New York, he was consistently a 10-target per-game receiver. I'd expect he's 75% of that the rest of the season. He'll have some boom games and he'll have plenty of single-digit PPR performances. He's not a must-sell, and like Mixon he'll finish as a No. 2 if he stays healthy, but you should be willing to deal him to anyone who views him as more than that.
For the second game in a row Anderson out-targeted Moore and now has 10 more catches for 90 more yards than Moore on the season. He also has one touchdown, which is one more than Moore. Most importantly, Anderson has scored 23 more Fantasy points. While it's certainly not what I expected, and I'm not enjoying it at all, it sure looks as though Moore has been relegated to second fiddle in this receiving corps. And with the way the Panthers use their running backs, that makes him third in priority in the passing game.
Verdict: Don't believe it.
I will admit it's getting more difficult to maintain this line. But the Panthers play the Falcons next week, so I'm not jumping off the Moore bandwagon quite yet. It's still a bit baffling how Carolina is employing these two, with Moore seeing more deep shots (career-high 13.5 aDOT entering Week 4) and Anderson dominating the short-area targets (career-high 80% catch rate through Week 4).
The thing is, Moore is still averaging eight targets per game and he's still averaging nine yards per target. That's still an 1,152-yard pace. Even if he only scores four touchdowns like he did in 2019, that's a No. 2 Fantasy receiver. So if I have to bet on Moore settling for his floor and Anderson maintaining career-best efficiency, I'm going to bet against it ... at least until after they play the Falcons.
"T.Y. Hilton is droppable."
For the fourth consecutive week, Hilton fell short of five receptions and 60 receiving yards. And he did not score a touchdown. There's only so many times in a row those three things can happen before you have to at least have the conversation. The Colts aren't throwing much, Philip Rivers isn't an accurate passer at this point, and Hilton isn't doing his part when Rivers delivers a good ball. it's time to look for answers somewhere else.
Verdict: Believe it.
This not a spite drop situation. There has to be someone I really want on the waiver wire or I have to be really desperate for a starter. Maybe that doesn't happen for you until the first Bye-nado, in Week 6. Maybe it's Week 7 when Hilton's Colts have a bye. Or maybe it's Week 5 for a desperate 1-3 team that must win. Regardless, the current Colts offense is not one that is going to produce a must-start wide receiver. Hilton is still getting enough almost-touchdowns and pass interference calls that he's a boom-or-bust flex if he hits one of those big plays instead, but he's also not a most-roster player.
"DeVante Parker is the only Dolphin you can trust as a Fantasy starter."
I'm not sure if this mea culpa is about telling you to draft Preston Williams or telling you to stream Ryan Fitzpatrick in Week 4. Both seem pretty dumb right now. It's become pretty clear through the first month that the Dolphins are a one-man show in Fantasy, and Parker is that man.
Verdict: Believe it.
Williams has five targets in the Dolphins past two games. He is not the same wide receiver we saw in his rookie year, and he's more droppable than Hilton or even A.J. Green for that matter. Mike Gesicki is a terribly frustrating tight end who has one game with 130 yards and 60 yards combined in his other three. I can't imagine starting that profile next week at San Francisco. Maybe you choose to stream Fitzpatrick again in the future, but it kinda seems like they should be getting ready for Tua time in Miami.
The one guy we haven't discussed yet is Myles Gaskins, and I don't really know what to make of him. He has 13 touches in three of his four games. That is right on the border of a start-able player if you're scoring touchdowns and catching three to four passes per game. But he's not getting short yardage work and the Dolphins figure to lose a lot more than they win. Gaskins is a fine flex, but not a starting running back until one of Howard or Breida is gone.