After a couple of excellent weeks of Fantasy production, Week 11 was a bit of a letdown. At least part of that was because we didn't have the Dolphins, Jaguars, Seahawks, or Buccaneers available. While those offenses have had their ups and downs, there's no doubt the rosters are chock full of Fantasy starters we've come to rely on. The good news is that we don't have any teams on a bye this week. The bad news is that we still have the Week 14 byenado with six teams on a bye looming.
While there was certainly some disappointment, there were some monster performances. And none were larger than Tony Pollard's 36.9-point outburst against the Vikings. Let's start with him.
Tony Pollard is a top-12 RB rest of season
The Case: In Ezekiel Elliott's first game back, both of the Cowboys' running backs saw 15 carries, and Pollard out-targeted Elliott six-to-one (and caught all six targets). They also both scored a pair of touchdowns in a 40-3 trouncing of the Vikings.
While most weeks won't be this easy, the Cowboys face approximately one good offense the rest of the season, the Eagles in Week 16. That's the same Eagles defense that allowed Elliott and Pollard to combine for 138 yards and a score in a loss earlier this year. Both Pollard and Elliott are starting backs the rest of the season, but Pollard is clearly the best.
The Verdict: Believe it
It was one thing for all of us to speculate as to how much better Pollard was than Elliott when he was working as a complementary back. But he now has 464 total yards and six touchdowns in his last three games. Even Jerry Jones can't ignore that.
The schedule is set up such that 30 touches per game for these two should be the expectation and their performance dictates that Pollard should see no fewer than half of those touches. At his career efficiency, 15 touches per game would net 88.9 yards per game.
Tony Pollard is a top-12 RB rest of season
— Heath Cummings (@heathcummingssr) November 21, 2022
Donovan Peoples-Jones is a must-start WR
The Case: Peoples-Jones has five straight games of at least 11.4 PPR Fantasy points and he's only scored one touchdown in that stretch. He's also one more week away from getting Deshaun Watson back. That week comes against a Tampa Bay defense that has suddenly been elite against the run once again, holding the Rams and Seahawks backs to a combined 85 yards in their last two games and not surrendering a touchdown on the ground to a running back since Week 7. There should be plenty of volume for Peoples-Jones this week and
The Verdict: Believe it
First, we'll start with a caveat. If you only start two wide receivers and you don't have a flex, then this is a bridge too far, at least until we see Watson show that he's the same guy he was two years ago. Otherwise, Peoples-Jones should be in your lineup. It's partially because of all the things I saw above, but may be more heavily influenced by the wide receiver landscape.
Brandin Cooks, D.J. Moore, Adam Thielen, and Diontae Johnson have all fallen off a cliff. Deebo Samuel isn't far behind. Cooper Kupp, Mike Williams, Michael Thomas, Jerry Jeudy, and JuJu Smith-Schuster are all hurt. We still don't know when we're going to see Marquise Brown and Ja'Marr Chase at full speed again. And there are many more disappointments I haven't named.
Donovan Peoples-Jones is a must-start WR
— Heath Cummings (@heathcummingssr) November 21, 2022
Antonio Gibson will be the leading rusher for the Commanders rest of season
The Case: For the first time since Brian Robinson was activated in Week 5, Antonio Gibson led the Commanders in rush attempts. And it's not hard to see why. Robinson is averaging 3.4 yards per carry on the season and he does not have one game this year where he's averaged more than 3.8. That's not all his fault, the Commanders do not have a good run game right now. But their inability to run the ball may be exacerbated by the fact that Robinson is not a factor in the passing game, he only has four targets all season. He can still be used in short yardage and to spell Gibson, but he shouldn't be the lead running back any longer.
The Verdict: Believe it
This could have huge implications for Gibson, who has also taken over as the primary pass-catching back with J.D. McKissic on Injured Reserve. Gibson has at least three catches in seven of his last eight games. And he has 32 carries in the past two games as well. He may just be a 20-touch back the rest of the season, and his next three games are against the Falcons and the Giants (twice).
Antonio Gibson will be the leading rusher for the Commanders rest of season.
— Heath Cummings (@heathcummingssr) November 21, 2022
Saquon Barkley will not be a top-10 RB rest of season
The Case: Barkley has averaged 26.5 touches and 19.1 PPR FPPG in the Giants seven wins this season. He's averaging 19.3 touches and 14.4 PPR FPPG in their three losses. Looking at their schedule its hard to see how they'll be favored in more than two of their remaining games and it's possible they are underdogs in all of them. Barkley is still a very good No. 2 running back, he may even sneak into the top 12, but he won't be the guy he's been the first half of the year.
The Verdict: Believe it
There was always a bit of smoke and mirrors to the Giants start, but recent injuries on defense could mean they simply aren't very good down the stretch. Couple that with a schedule that was backloaded in the worst way and you have a recipe for disaster. The Colts are the only team left on the Giants schedule with a losing record. The Eagles and Vikings are the only teams left that rank as even above-average matchups for running backs and they could both put up a big enough number that the Giants don't take advantage of that.
Barkley made a remarkable return to open this season and should still be a solid starter, but he no longer looks like a league winner.
Saquon Barkley is not a top-10 running back rest of season
— Heath Cummings (@heathcummingssr) November 21, 2022
