Fantasy Football: Dangerous Chiefs among prime plays for divisional-round DFS
Jamey Eisenberg helps make DFS lineup choices for what projects to be a typically tasty divisional round weekend.
There were plenty of big performances from several players in the wild-card round of the NFL playoffs, including Deshaun Watson, Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook and D.K. Metcalf. Hopefully, we get more players stepping up in the divisional round.
The nice thing is you get a lot of additional firepower now that the teams that were on a bye are ready to play. That means you can use Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Aaron Jones and Davante Adams, among others, for DFS this week.
There are great players to use on DraftKings and FanDuel -- and several players to avoid. Let's take a look at the good plays and bad plays on each site, as well as some potential lineups.
Hopefully, these recommendations will be successful for you this weekend.
Good plays on DraftKings
Patrick Mahomes $7,500
Russell Wilson $6,600
Mahomes went for 273 passing yards, three touchdowns and one interception in Week 6 against Houston, and the Texans have allowed multiple touchdowns to five of the past six opposing quarterbacks, including Josh Allen in the wild-card round. Mahomes is the No. 2 quarterback on DraftKings, but he's worth it.
Wilson has scored at least 20.2 DraftKings points in each of his past two games, and he's running more with at least 29 yards in each of those two outings. He's the No. 4 quarterback on the board behind Lamar Jackson ($8,400), Mahomes and Watson ($6,700), so his value is great given his potential upside.
After an injury-plagued season, Williams has turned things on of late with at least 18.2 DraftKings points in each of his past two games. And hopefully Mostert will keep his touchdown streak alive since he's scored in each of his past six games, with eight total touchdowns over that span.
Mark Ingram (calf) is not at 100 percent, so I love the upside for Edwards if he gets an expanded role. In Week 17 with Ingram out, Edwards had 16.2 DraftKings points, and he averaged 5.3 yards per carry for the season. I also like Justice Hill ($3,900) if Ingram is limited or out. Hill had 11.9 DraftKings points in Week 17.
I'd like to see Lynch get more work since he only has 18 carries in the two games he's played since coming out of retirement, but he's scored in both of those outings against the Eagles and 49ers. He's a cheap option at running back this weekend, but he will likely need to score to help your lineup.
Hill only played six home games in 2019, but he averaged 18.8 DraftKings points in Arrowhead Stadium. One of those games was in Week 6 against Houston when he had five catches for 80 yards and two touchdowns on 10 targets.
Metcalf was the star receiver for Seattle last week at Philadelphia with seven catches for 160 yards and a touchdown on nine targets, but Lockett still had eight targets. He only had four catches for 62 yards, but he has scored in two of his past four games. Since he's cheaper than Metcalf this week, I'll play Lockett against the Packers.
Samuel is averaging 17.2 DraftKings points per game over his past eight outings, and he might be my favorite play this weekend, regardless of position. For some reason, Emmanuel Sanders is priced at $200 higher than Samuel, even though Samuel has been the better Fantasy receiver.
Brown only has one touchdown in his past five games, but I'm hoping he does well in the spotlight of the playoffs. The Titans have allowed four touchdowns to receivers in their past three games.
Andrews is cheaper than Travis Kelce ($6,400) and George Kittle ($6,200), and he might have just as much upside. He averaged 15.3 DraftKings points per game at home, and he scored 27.3 DraftKings points in his last game in Week 16 at Cleveland.
Hollister hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 10, but he does have 18 targets in his past three games. At some point, he'll find the end zone again if he continues to remain involved in the offense, and hopefully it happens this week against the Packers.
The Vikings defense had an interception, a fumble recovery and three sacks in the wild-card round against New Orleans. We'll see if they can pressure Jimmy Garoppolo into a couple of mistakes this week.
Bad plays on DraftKings
Rodgers scored 23.0 DraftKings points in Week 17 at Detroit, but that was just his second game with more than 14.4 points since Week 8. Seattle also hasn't allowed a quarterback to score multiple touchdowns in four games in a row.
The 49ers defense has allowed five quarterbacks in a row to perform at a high level with Jackson, Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, Jared Goff and Wilson all scoring at least 22 Fantasy points in seasonal leagues. But Cousins has scored 18.0 DraftKings points or less in five games in a row, and he might not have Adam Thielen (ankle) or Stefon Diggs (illness) at 100 percent.
Henry is awesome, and he just had another dominant performance against the Patriots in the wild-card game with 30.4 DraftKings points. He's now scored 72.5 points in his past two outings. But this Ravens defense will do everything possible to take him away, and they've held four teams in a row to under 100 rushing yards, including Buffalo, the Jets, Cleveland and Pittsburgh. And only two running backs have scored against Baltimore since Week 12. If you want to spend the money on Henry, go ahead, but I'd rather look for cheaper alternatives.
Ingram's calf injury scares me, and I don't plan to use him in any lineups this week. It's why I'd rather play Edwards or Hill based on their price and potential roles if Ingram is at less than 100 percent.
Hyde does have at least 12.3 DraftKings points in two of his past four games, and he's scored a touchdown in three of his past four outings. He also had a big game against the Chiefs in Week 6 with 26 carries for 116 yards and a touchdown, as well as one catch for 14 yards, in what was a revenge game against his former team.
But Kansas City's run defense has improved since then, and the Chiefs have allowed just two touchdowns to a running back since Week 10. I'd rather play Duke Johnson ($4,700) if you want a piece of Houston's backfield given his role in the passing game.
Williams is expected to be fine with the shoulder injury that kept him out of Week 17, but he's scored 7.2 DraftKings points or less in three games in a row. Aaron Jones is the star of this backfield, and Williams is only worth using as a flier if you need a cheap option at running back or flex.
DK Metcalf $6,800
Adam Thielen $6,200
A.J. Brown $6,000
Emmanuel Sanders $5,400
Metcalf's big game last week put him as the No. 4 receiver on the slate this week behind only Davante Adams, DeAndre Hopkins and Hill. As stated above, I'd rather play Lockett, who is cheaper, since the targets should be the same for both of Seattle's receivers.
Thielen was great last week with seven catches for 129 yards on nine targets, but I'm worried about his ankle injury. As such, he's someone I plan to avoid in DFS this week.
Brown was shut down by the Patriots last week with one catch for 4 yards on one target. I'm concerned he could struggle again this week in Baltimore, and I'm not excited to use him in this matchup.
I don't understand how Sanders is more expensive than Samuel. Sanders has scored 9.1 DraftKings points or less in seven of his past eight games, and it's easy to just use Samuel instead since he's better.
Fells has one touchdown since Week 9, and he's scored 7.7 DraftKings points or less in five games in a row. He did have six catches for 69 yards on seven targets against the Chiefs in Week 6, but I'm not trusting him this week.
Smith didn't have a good game against the Patriots in the wild-card round with one catch for 9 yards on two targets, but he'll play better this week. That said, the matchup against Baltimore is tough, and the Ravens have only allowed three touchdowns to tight ends all season.
The Seahawks defense was great last week at Philadelphia with seven sacks and just nine points allowed, but Carson Wentz (concussion) was knocked out in the first half. Prior to that game, the Seahawks DST scored 7.0 DraftKings points in three games in a row. Rodgers only has two interceptions since Week 6, and he's been sacked just nine times in his past five games.
QB - Russell Wilson (at GB) - $6,600
RB - Damien Williams (vs. HOU) - $6,000
RB - Gus Edwards (vs. TEN) - $4,900
WR - Tyreek Hill (vs. HOU) - $7,600
WR - Tyler Lockett (at GB) - $6,600
WR - Deebo Samuel (vs. MIN) - $5,200
TE - Jacob Hollister (at GB) - $4,000
FLEX - Travis Kelce (vs. HOU) - $6,400
DST - Vikings (at SF) - $2,700
Good plays on FanDuel
Patrick Mahomes - $8,600
Russell Wilson - $7,900
Mahomes is $800 less than Jackson, and he might have just as much upside against the Texans. And Wilson is cheaper than Rodgers ($8,100) on FanDuel, making him the No. 5 quarterback and a must-play this weekend.
Dalvin Cook - $8,000
Damien Williams - $6,900
Raheem Mostert - $6,700
Gus Edwards - $5,400
Cook is the No. 3 running back behind Henry ($9,600) and Jones ($8,200), and he might be better than both. He just scored 26.5 FanDuel points in the wild-card round against New Orleans with 130 total yards and two touchdowns, and he should have the chance for another big game against San Francisco. The 49ers have allowed four touchdowns to running backs in their past three games.
Tyreek Hill - $7,900
Tyler Lockett - $6,700
Deebo Samuel - $6,100
Allen Lazard - $5,400
I like Marquise Brown ($5,300) as a cheap option at receiver here also, but let's talk about Lazard. He has 17 targets in his past two games, and he just scored 14.9 FanDuel points in Week 17 at Detroit.
You can also take a flier on Sammy Watkins ($5,200) if you want a cheap receiver or flex option this week. Watkins hasn't scored since Week 1, but just watch him play well now that the regular season is over.
Mark Andrews - $6,800
Jacob Hollister - $5,700
I'm going with the same tight ends on FanDuel that I talked about on DraftKings because of the price. Andrews and Hollister are cheaper than Kelce ($7,500) and Kittle ($7,400), which is why you should consider using them.
Chiefs - $4,200
The Chiefs defense has scored at least 10 FanDuel points in five of the past six games, and three teams over that span have scored nine points or less against Kansas City. The Texans have allowed 16 sacks in their past three games as well.
Bad plays on FanDuel
Aaron Rodgers - $8,100
Jimmy Garoppolo - $7,800
Garoppolo has scored 18.2 FanDuel points or less in five of the past six games, and we'll see how he does in his first ever playoff start. The Vikings also haven't allowed multiple passing touchdowns in five games in a row.
Derrick Henry - $9,600
Mark Ingram - $7,500
Carlos Hyde - $6,400
Travis Homer - $5,500
Homer has combined for 13.9 FanDuel points in his past two games, and Lynch could continue to take on more work. He's also scored in the past two games, and it's doubtful Homer will get goal-line opportunities this week against the Packers.
A.J. Brown - $7,400
D.K. Metcalf - $7,000
Adam Thielen - $6,900
Stefon Diggs - $6,800
Diggs would benefit if Thielen is out, but he struggled last week against the Saints with Thielen looking like he was back to 100 percent. Diggs finished the wild-card game with two catches for 19 yards on three targets, and he's struggled on the road this year with only two games with more than 10.0 FanDuel points in nine outings.
Kyle Rudolph - $5,400
Jonnu Smith - $5,300
Rudolph scored last week on what could have been called offensive pass interference, but it counted nonetheless against the Saints for the game-winning touchdown in overtime. He would benefit if Thielen is out, but he's scored 6.3 FanDuel points or less in three games in a row prior to the wild-card round. San Francisco also is No. 4 in fewest Fantasy points allowed to tight ends.
Packers - $4,400
Wilson hasn't thrown an interception in three games in a row, and he's been sacked two times or less in three of his past four outings. The Seahawks also average 24.8 points per game, and the Packers DST are No. 3 in price behind the Ravens ($4,800) and 49ers ($4,600).
QB - Patrick Mahomes (vs. HOU) - $8,600
RB - Dalvin Cook (at SF) - $8,000
RB - Gus Edwards (vs. TEN) - $5,400
WR - Tyreek Hill (vs. HOU) - $7,900
WR - Deebo Samuel (vs. MIN) - $6,100
WR - Marquise Brown (vs. TEN) - $5,300
TE - Mark Andrews (vs. TEN) - $6,800
FLEX - Damien Williams (vs. HOU) - $6,900
DST - Ravens (vs. TEN) - $4,800
Fantasy Football Today Newsletter
Get tips, advice and news to win your league - all from the FFT podcast team.
Thanks for signing up!
Keep an eye on your inbox for the latest sports news.
There was an error processing your subscription.
Fantasy Football Today Podcast
As you get ready for the Conference Championship round playoff challenges, make sure you're...
Ben Gretch reviews the 2019 season for each team from the AFC West.
DFS lineup choices are more challenging for championship round weekend with fewer options and...
Dave Richard looks at Mike McCarthy's addition to the Cowboys, even if he's not the one doing...
Predictive data engineer Mike McClure has revealed his lineups for the NFL Playoff Challenge.
Here's a gander at who might be changing teams — and/or getting paid — this offseason.