Now that Jameis Winston has been named the starter in New Orleans, the fourth pick may just be the most difficult in a full PPR league. In a vast majority of leagues, you should expect Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, and Alvin Kamara to now be the top three picks. And the manager with pick No. 4 has a tough decision to make.
At running back, you're essentially choosing between Derrick Henry and Ezekiel Elliott. Elliott probably has more PPR upside, but it's hard to pick against what Henry has been the past two years. I wouldn't blame someone for punting that choice and taking Davante Adams or even Travis Kelce, but I think that's an uphill battle unless you plan on building a Chiefs or Packers stack and going Zero-RB.
Me? I'm choosing Henry. But the decisions don't get any easier after that.
Here's my team from No. 4 overall
1.4 Derrick Henry, RB, TEN
2.9 David Montgomery, RB, CHI
3.4 Terry McLaurin, WR, WAS
4.9 Myles Gaskin, RB, MIA
5.4 Lamar Jackson, QB, BAL
6.9 Robby Anderson, WR, CAR
7.4 Jaylen Waddle, WR, MIA
8.9 Marvin Jones, WR, DET
9.4 Michael Pittman, WR, IND
10.9 Sterling Shepard, WR, NYG
11.4 Tyler Higbee, TE, LAR
12.9 David Johnson, RB, HOU
13.4 Anthony Firkser, TE, TEN
14.9 T.Y. Hilton, WR, IND
15.4 Carlos Hyde, RB, JAC
It's a rare PPR draft when I have just one wide receiver after my first five picks. But landing three of my top-18 running backs and my No. 2 quarterback makes me feel a little bit better about that. Both the Montgomery pick and the Gaskin pick came on the heels of a sniping from Jamey Eisenberg. He took Calvin Ridley right in front of me in Round 2 and Mark Andrews in Round 4.
I do like Terry McLaurin as a No.1 receiver, and as long as you have someone you feel comfortable with as a top-12 option it's not that hard to find No. 2 and No. 3 receivers late in the draft. I'd suggest a good mix of floor receivers (Robby Anderson and Sterling Shepard) along with upside picks (Jaylen Waddle and Marvin Jones) if you go with this approach.
The Robust-RB start with an early quarterback did mean I was stuck with the late tight end approach, which I don't love. But Tyler Higbee and Anthony Firkser should both have an increased role with Gerald Everett and Jonnu Smith gone. Just make sure you wait until after Round 10 if you miss the top eight tight ends.
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BAL Baltimore • #8
Age: 24 • Experience: 4 yrs.
Since Jackson became a starter, only Patrick Mahomes has scored more Fantasy points per game. Last year's "down" year for Jackson would have been a top-four Fantasy season in each of the past 10 years excluding 2020. His rushing production along with the potential for a bounceback in the passing game makes Jackson my clear No. 2 quarterback, but I usually wait to take him after Josh Allen is gone. Round 5 is an excellent spot.
TEN Tennessee • #22
Age: 27 • Experience: 6 yrs.
Hindsight is always 20/20, but it's not hard to see in foresight how this pick goes wrong. Henry has 681 carries over the past two seasons. He'll turn 28 years old in January. If ever there was a back who could be approaching the cliff, it's Henry. It's just so hard to believe it with the way he played last year. It was his most efficient as a rusher. He's shown no signs on the field of slowing down or breaking down, but if it happens this year I'll wish I'd heeded to warning signs.
Myles Gaskin RB
MIA Miami • #37
Age: 24 • Experience: 3 yrs.
Taking a third running back in Round 4 only works if he's a difference maker. If he averages 100 total yards per game like he did in his final outings in 2020, then I may have three top-12 running backs, making my team one of the favorites. If he works in a committee with Salvon Ahmed and Malcolm Brown, and loses goal line work, Gaskin will look merely like a flex who shouldn't have been drafted before Round 6. And I'll wish I'd taken a wide receiver or tight end in Round 4.
So which sleepers, breakouts and busts should you target and fade? And which QB shocks the NFL with a top-five performance? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy cheat sheets for every single position, all from the model that called Josh Allen's huge season, and find out.