Fantasy Football Draft Prep: Elite Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs atop the 2023 rookie running back class

There are only two early round RBs but real potential with later options

Unless you've been hyper-focused on Fantasy Baseball, you already know that the star of the 2023 NFL rookie class is Bijan Robinson. A running back in the mold of Saquon Barkley, Robinson checks off every box and should be in line for a monster workload for at least the first five years of his career. 

Whether you believe it or not, Robinson is going to be a first-round pick in your league. There's just too much potential for a 1,500-yard, 13-score campaign. You don't normally find guys like that after Round 1. 

The rest of the class will underwhelm. Aside from Lions first-round running back Jahmyr Gibbs, no rookie should be expected to be even a top-65 pick in 2023 seasonal drafts. 

That sounds bad, but it actually creates a slew of opportunities for savvy drafters. There's a silver lining to every rookie receiver, including all four first-rounders. At least one of them figures to outperform expectations (our bet is Jordan Addison for 2023). There's also a tight end you'll read about who could buck the trend of rookies at his position. You should definitely earmark a handful of rookies for your back half of the draft. 

And then there are the quarterbacks. Three were top-four picks, but it's the one from that trio who went last -- Anthony Richardson -- who will capture the imagination of Fantasy managers and become the first of the group to go in drafts thanks to his rushing prowess. 

Bottom line: This rookie group has some interesting players, but most will be late-rounders who could deliver immense returns. Read them. Learn them. Know them. 

Players are listed by the order I would draft them.   

• Ed. note: These are Dave's top rookies for 2023 seasonal PPR leagues and started with quarterbacks on Tuesday followed by running backs on Wednesday, wide receivers on Thursday and tight ends on Friday. 

Height 5-11 | Weight: 215 | Age by Week 1: 21 years old

Robinson is the stud of the rookie class: a three-down physical beast with uncommon elusiveness and lateral agility given his size. He's also an excellent receiver who can line up across the formation. At Texas, Robinson scored once every 16.3 carries and had 104 missed tackles, according to Pro Football Focus. Now he'll be the primary runner in a Falcons offense that in 2022 was second in RB rush attempts (455) and third in RB rushing average (4.9), suggesting they won't slow down handing off in 2023 given the first-round investment. The best part? Robinson had only 539 carries in college, so there's plenty of tread left on the proverbial tire. 

2023 draft outlook: The majority of Fantasy managers won't hesitate to take Robinson with a top-10 overall pick. Multiple people in every league will view Robinson similarly to how they viewed Ezekiel Elliott and Saquon Barkley when they were rookies and grab him as high as second overall. That makes for lofty expectations, but five of the past seven running backs taken with a top-10 pick in the NFL Draft have finished as top-10 options on a per-game basis in PPR. 

Rookie-only draft outlook: Robinson is a no-brainer as the 1.01 in one-QB leagues and probably in two-QB leagues too unless someone wants to get aggressive for Anthony Richardson. 

Height 5-9 | Weight: 199 | Age by Week 1: 21 years old

Gibbs has the same potential as Jamaal Charles or Alvin Kamara thanks to his terrific hands, excellent vision and top-end speed. While splitting reps at Alabama in 2021 and 2022, Gibbs averaged 107.8 total yards per game with a touchdown once every 23.4 touches. Last season, Lions RBs logged the fifth-most carries in the league (427), scored the most rushing touchdowns (23), and saw the ninth-most targets (119). That last detail is important for Gibbs, who averaged 4.3 targets per game last year. If there's anything holding Gibbs back, it's that he was never a feature back at Alabama or Georgia Tech (played just 53.5% of the snaps in 2022), doesn't have a physical element to his game (just 2.2 yards per carry when he was hit 2 yards or closer to the line of scrimmage) and had six carries inside the 5-yard line in 31 college games. Gibbs will certainly share in Motown, but even with that hindrance he has upside for a 1,500-total-yard rookie year. 

2023 draft outlook:  Expect a bunch of Fantasy managers to remember D'Andre Swift's 13.7 PPR average from last year and assume that Gibbs can hit at least that mark. If he does, then he's easily a No. 2 Fantasy running back. Thing is, Swift met that mark while exceeding 10 touches in just five games. If Gibbs earns more work (and stays healthy), then he could be incredible. Bank on him being so popular that he's snagged between 35th and 45th in PPR leagues and 10 spots later in non-PPR leagues. 

Rookie-only draft outlook: Gibbs is a contender for the second overall pick in rookie-only drafts and would only not be that if a manager was madly in love with one of the top four receivers or Anthony Richardson. 

Height 5-8 1/2 | Weight: 188 | Age by Halloween: 22 years old

Achane played over 70% of the snaps for Texas A&M last year and averaged just over 130 total yards per game with 11 touchdowns in 10 outings. He was also top 15 in the FBS in targets (44) and receptions (36) despite playing just the 10 games. He's small, but he plays with heart and toughness while being known for his patience to wait for a lane before bursting to ludicrous speed for big-gain creation. Achane's a natural fit for the Dolphins' zone-run scheme and has the added advantage of being younger and more explosive than veterans Jeff Wilson (27) and Raheem Mostert (31). His big-play appeal will get him on the field with fellow track-speed Fins like Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, but his lack of strength might keep him out of high-value situations like goal-line work and pass protection on third downs. 

2023 draft outlook:  If Achane shines in training camp and the Dolphins don't add any further competition, he'll have a shot at being their busiest back in 2023. Similarly, his stock will plummet if he can't deliver the lightning on a weekly basis. His upside makes him worthy of a pick around 100th overall in regular seasonal leagues and in Best Ball formats. 

Rookie-only draft outlook: Expect Achane to be anywhere from the third to sixth running back taken, most definitely after the top four receivers and tight end Dalton Kincaid. That means he'll be fair game as high as eighth overall in one-QB or available as late as 12th overall in Superflex/two-QB formats. 

Height 6-0 | Weight: 214 | Age by Week 1: 22 years old

Charbonnet's top traits are his patience and balance. That's what helped him average 7.0 yards per run in 2022 and put up over 1,300 total yards in each of his past two seasons. Also key to Charbonnet's game are his hands as he caught 61 of 69 targets since 2021 for 8.5 yards per catch. He's not a speed merchant -- that title still fits incumbent rusher Kenneth Walker in Seattle -- but Charbonnet does give the Seahawks a second option in the run game and a potential first option on third downs. You should also know that Charbonnet scored on nine of 18 carries inside the 5 last year for the Bruins -- a much better rate than Walker's 2-for-10 effort inside the 5 as a rookie. If the rookie proves to have better vision near the goal line, he'll play there over Walker too. 

2023 draft outlook: Everyone soured on Charbonnet after the draft because he'll share with Walker. That figures to crash his ADP and lock him into a pick in Round 8 or later. But if he can do the things that Walker wasn't good at last year (catching the ball, scoring in short yardage) then he'll be one of the best value RBs you could possibly take in your drafts. He's a must-get if you take Walker with a top-50 pick. 

Rookie-only draft outlook: What's the likelihood that Charbonnet outplays Walker and becomes Seattle's lead back for multiple years? I'm not saying it can't happen, I'm just saying the odds aren't great considering Walker is virtually the same age as Charbonnet (less than three months older) and is more explosive, not to mention a season more experienced. Dynasty managers will wrestle with Charbonnet's value but ultimately his versatile skill set will make him impossible to pass up between eighth and 16th overall in one-QB leagues and 12th and 20th overall in Superflex/two-QB.  

Height 5-11 5/8 | Weight: 210 | Age by Week 1: 22 years old

Don't let the name fool you -- Bigsby is more of a one-cut runner, less of a tank. He reacts quickly to whatever's in front of him with very good balance and juice in his legs to evade tacklers. There's no doubting his physicality but he did get taken down by back-seven defenders a little easier than you'd like and his vision seemed inconsistent. The Jaguars are looking for a complement to Travis Etienne in the run game and may have found one who could work in high-value situations at the goal line (Bigsby scored on all five of his carries inside the 5 last year and was 6 of 10 doing that in 2021).

2023 draft outlook: Late-round flier worthy since he sets up as a feature back if Etienne misses significant playing time, and he may even score in games Etienne is healthy for. He's one to check on before going into your drafts. 

Rookie-only draft outlook: He's excellent to grab for depth purposes in late Round 2, but the talented back could permanently be stuck in a part-time role. 

Height 6-0 1/4 | Weight: 219 | Age by Week 1: 22 years old

When is a backup college running back worthy of mainstream Fantasy attention? When the backup to Bijan Robinson is just as physical and maybe better balanced. Johnson's power-packed game helped him rack up over 1,100 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns over his past two seasons on just 189 carries. Though he won't have many long runs, Johnson is the prototypical Chicago Bears thunderback who can also come through as a pass-catcher and is among the more NFL-ready pass blockers in his class. There's no doubt Johnson faces an uphill climb for playing time -- Khalil Herbert and D'Onta Foreman stand in his way -- but he's got some talent to put numbers up if given the chance. 

2023 draft outlook: Johnson would have to elevate past veteran D'Onta Foreman for a situational role as a thumper behind Herbert, who's more elusive. Such a role might yield some touchdowns but likely keep him to 10 touches a game. He's bench material with only modest upside this season, so expect him to be taken within the last four rounds. 

Rookie-only draft outlook: Johnson has time on his side -- Foreman is signed just for 2023 and Herbert is signed through 2024. If Johnson can prove his worth, he could conceivably jump both and become the lead back for the Bears in less than two seasons. That's the best-case scenario for Johnson, who figures to be snagged in the middle-to-end of the second round regardless of format.

Height 5-11 1/8 | Weight: 215 | Age by Week 1: 21 years old

Miller's breakout in 2022 with TCU catapulted him onto the NFL draft prospect map, complete with top-15 finishes in rushing yards (1,399), rushing touchdowns (17, one behind Bijan Robinson) and 80 tackles avoided. Plenty of that can be attributed to TCU's massive and talented offensive line, but Miller proved to be a bigger back with slippery lateral agility. He has potential in the passing game and the pass blocking game and does have a second gear to give defenders a chase to the end zone. His situation in New Orleans also has potential: all three players who might garner more touches (Alvin Kamara, Jamaal Williams, Taysom Hill) are each 28 years of age or older. Even if Miller can't find big-time reps this year, he might be able to in 2024 when one or more of those guys are off the roster. 

2023 draft outlook: If he has a quiet training camp then Miller could be buried on the depth chart and wouldn't be worth a pick. But if he picks up the offense and even gets a crack at meaningful snaps if one or more Saints RBs aren't available to start the season, then he'll easily be a top-100 choice. There's a real chance Miller will be a second-half-of-season waiver-wire pick up.

Rookie-only draft outlook:This is where managers should get excited about Miller. If he shows signs of being a useful multi-down back, which would mean improving on his current skill set, then he could be New Orleans' lead back by 2024. And he should end up being an early second-round pick in all rookie-only drafts too, making him a clear value with more long-term upside than anyone other than Robinson, Gibbs and maybe Achane in the RB class. 

Height 5-10 1/8 | Weight: 216 | Age by Halloween: 21 years old

You'll love Abanikanda's talent, but you'll hate that he's destined to be a backup behind Breece Hall with the Jets. In college with Pitt, Abanikanda proved he's a powerful north-south runner with very good vision and lateral agility, especially given his size. His 20 rushing touchdowns (one every 12 carries last year) are particularly impressive, enough to overshadow his sideline-to-sideline speed and smallish hands. But the reality is that he'll be in a battle for meaningful touches anytime Hall is upright, which narrows his potential to help in Fantasy. 

2023 draft outlook: If it's clear Hall will miss the beginning of the regular season and/or the Jets admit they want to ease him back into action, then Abanikanda will get taken in Round 10 or later. But once the world sees Hall moving around in practice, Abanikanda will be a final-round pick as an insurance policy for Hall. 

Rookie-only draft outlook: Expect a mid-to-late Round 2 price tag based primarily on his talent, not his statistical outlook. 

This article appears in the CBS Sports/Beckett Sports 2023 Fantasy Football Magazine. Pick up your copy at newsstands in mid-August.