The Indianapolis Colts seemingly have everything you could want in an NFL team from a Fantasy perspective. Andrew Luck is an elite Fantasy quarterback with high volume. T.Y. Hilton is his clear No. 1 wide receiver with guaranteed targets. Donte Moncrief is a young breakout candidate who excels in the red zone. Jack Doyle is a cheap Fantasy tight end more than capable to fill the role of low-end No. 1 tight end. Even Frank Gore is seemingly secure in his touches and has provided remarkable consistency.
There's just one problem, Luck's shoulder isn't quite ready for the season yet. Luck has started training camp on the PUP list and there are reports that he will not play in the preseason. Luck has reportedly not suffered a setback and everyone says they expect him to be ready for the start of the season. Still, it's hard to feel 100 percent confident and his absence would severely impact the offense.
For the purposes of this article, I'm assuming Luck's health. I'm expecting him to play 16 games, like I've done with everyone this summer. Just keep that in mind if you're drafting before he's actually been cleared.
*Rankings expressed below are in terms of expected Fantasy points. This is a part of our actual Fantasy Football rankings but not a direct correlation to my rankings. Things like injury risk, upside, etc. factor into rankings but they're not being talked about here. This is simply an expectation as the team is currently constructed.
| Player Name | Expected FP | Position Rank | Expected PPR FP | Position Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
T.Y. Hilton
IND WR
| 179.2 | #7 | 266.2 | #7 |
Andrew Luck
IND QB
| 372.8 | #3 | 372.8 | #3 |
Frank Gore
IND RB
| 152.3 | #17 | 181.3 | #17 |
Jack Doyle
IND TE
| 108 | #7 | 176 | #8 |
Donte Moncrief
IND WR
| 117.9 | #41 | 183.9 | #41 |
Breaking down the touches
The Colts have been one of the more pass-happy teams in the league since Luck arrived. Whether his injury changes that is a fair question. My stance is that the Colts aren't putting Luck on the field if he's not 100 percent, so I don't think his shoulder will affect their game plan. I also don't see the team's offensive line and defense improving enough to allow the Colts to run more even if they want to. I've got the Colts throwing the ball 600 times for the third time in four years.
If you're wondering why Jack Doyle is a sleeper, the Colts have targeted their tight end at least 20 percent of the time in each of the past three seasons. Two of those years they were closer to 25 percent. Colts' tight ends caught 12 touchdown passes in 2016.
| Colts touches | ||||||||
| Player | RuSHARE | RuATT | ReSHARE | TGT | REC | TD | ||
| Frank Gore | 60% | 246 | 7% | 41 | 29 | 7 | ||
| Robert Turbin | 17% | 69 | 7% | 40 | 28 | 4 | ||
| T.Y. Hilton | 0% | 0 | 25% | 150 | 87 | 7 | ||
| Donte Moncrief | 0% | 0 | 18% | 110 | 66 | 7 | ||
| Kamar Aiken | 0% | 0 | 10% | 60 | 35 | 3 | ||
| Jack Doyle | 0% | 0 | 15% | 90 | 68 | 7 | ||
| Erik Swoope | 0% | 0 | 8% | 45 | 30 | 2 | ||
Of note:
- I'm expecting to Moncrief will take a small step forward, but ADP indicates everyone else is expecting him to make a leap. I'm not buying at his cost this year.
- The Colts have had two relevant tight ends before, so you shouldn't sleep on Swoope, especially in deeper leagues that offer a tight end bonus.
The Leftovers
Robert Turbin is the backup running back, but Marlon Mack is far more exciting. Mack is also the complete opposite of Frank Gore. Mack is a slasher with big-play ability. He's also a back who has struggled between the tackles. If Frank Gore gets hurt, I'd anticipate a split between Turbin and Mack, which hurts both their values.
Phillip Dorsett is another guy who's under the radar, but that's for a reason. He's really struggled in his first two seasons in the league. It is his third year and he's too young to give up on, at least for the Colts. You shouldn't draft Dorsett, but if Moncrief gets hurt again he could get one more opportunity.
