This is our third week of looking at the CBS Sports Average Draft Position data, but it's the first time we can analyze it following every team playing a preseason game. And finally seeing certain players on the field could change things.
With that in mind, I wanted to predict which players could see their ADP rise or fall as a result of what happened after this weekend. And you might find a few reasons to get excited about this rookie class.
Trey Lance and Justin Fields gave you a glimpse of their upside. Javonte Williams and Rhamondre Stevenson looked impressive. And I was thrilled with how Terrace Marshall, Rondale Moore and Amon-Ra St. Brown were used.
We'll break down some of these performances and more, and you can check out the latest ADP data here.
- Is Myles Gaskin a backup? Is Phillip Lindsay a workhorse? What did we think of the rookie QBs? We have preseason notes and more on the Fantasy Football Today in 5 podcast. Listen below and follow at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts:
Trevor Lawrence is the first rookie quarterback off the board with an ADP of 91.44, and he's the No. 12 quarterback being drafted. I have him ranked No. 14, and I would rather draft Jalen Hurts (ADP of 91.96) and Joe Burrow (96.26).
Lawrence was OK in his first preseason game against Cleveland, completing 6-of-9 passes for 71 yards, and he was also sacked twice. I don't know if Lawrence's ADP will slide, but I'm not drafting him as a starter now.
Fields is the next rookie quarterback based on ADP at 124.04, and he's being drafted as the No. 20 player at his position. I have him ranked No. 16, and I was encouraged by his first preseason game against Miami. Fields played behind Andy Dalton, but Fields was the star of the game with 14-of-20 completions for 142 yards and a touchdown, along with five carries for 33 yards and a touchdown. It shouldn't be long before Fields is the starter for Chicago.
Lance played behind Jimmy Garoppolo against Kansas City, and he made an impact with an 80-yard touchdown to Trent Sherfield. Lance finished the game 5-of-14 for 128 yards and the touchdown, and he also should be the starter for the 49ers sooner than later. His ADP is at 126.81 as the No. 22 quarterback, but I have him ranked one spot ahead of Fields.
Two other rookie quarterbacks who are more late-round fliers include Zach Wilson (ADP of 125.17) and Mac Jones (no ADP), and both played well in their preseason debut. Wilson was 6-of-9 passing for 63 yards as the starter against the Giants, while Jones was 13-of-19 for 87 yards as the backup behind Cam Newton against Washington.
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Probably the most frustrating backfield to watch this weekend was Miami's after Malcolm Brown started for the Dolphins at Chicago and played ahead of Myles Gaskin. Brown played 16 snaps with the first-team offense, while Gaskin played only seven snaps.
Now, Brown was terrible in his role, rushing nine times for 8 yards and catching one pass for 7 yards, while Gaskin had four carries for 18 yards and one catch for 3 yards. But it's hard to justify drafting Gaskin at his ADP of 53.53 if he's not starting. I'm going to move Gaskin down in my rankings.
Gaskin could still win the job, but this is clearly a problem. Brown is worth a late-round pick in all leagues, and he doesn't have an ADP as of now.
The Jaguars backfield could be messy this season if the first preseason game is any indication since Travis Etienne, James Robinson and Carlos Hyde all played with the starters against the Browns. Robinson played seven snaps, Etienne played five snaps and Hyde played three snaps.
We all expected Etienne and Robinson to split playing time, but if Hyde also rotates in then it will be a problem. Etienne's ADP is at 46.73, which could be risky, but Robinson's ADP is still OK at 81.41. I'm not interested in Hyde, who has no ADP as of now.
Javonte Williams could see his ADP rise from 75.88 following his performance against Minnesota when he had five carries for 29 yards. Melvin Gordon didn't play against the Vikings, so take that into account, but Williams did well in his first NFL action.
Michael Carter's ADP likely won't change at 84.81, but it was discouraging to see him open the game against the Giants behind Ty Johnson. The two split snaps on early downs with the starters, and Johnson played on all of the third-down plays. With Tevin Coleman out, this could be a problem for Carter, who finished the game with seven carries for 22 yards, along with one catch for 9 yards.
Damien Harris could see his ADP rise from 90.92 after a strong showing against Washington. Harris worked in tandem with James White, but Harris was ahead of Sony Michel and Stevenson, who did all of his damage in the second half. Harris finished with four carries for 17 yards. Even though Stevenson (ADP of 163.93) was the star with 10 carries for 127 yards and two touchdowns, it seems like Harris is the leader of this backfield.
I'm not planning to target many Texans players this year -- Brandin Cooks is really the only one -- and Houston's backfield could be one to avoid. Phillip Lindsay played ahead of David Johnson, who was limited to third-down work, and there's no way you should draft Johnson at his ADP of 99.85. Johnson finished with one carry for minus-1 yards, while Lindsay was at five carries for 14 yards. Lindsay's ADP is at 158.64 and rising.
You probably shouldn't read too much into Devin Singletary's performance against the Lions, but he looked good with eight carries for 42 yards, along with one catch for 6 yards and a touchdown. Zack Moss was out with a hamstring injury, but he's expected to return for the second preseason game. Moss (ADP of 117.98) is being drafted ahead of Singletary (122.97), but if Moss remains out then Singletary should be drafted first. And keep an eye on Matt Breida, who had 10 carries for 27 yards, along with two catches for 15 yards.
A few backup running backs to keep an eye on include Xavier Jones for the Rams, Justin Jackson for the Chargers and Anthony McFarland for the Steelers. Jones started for the Rams with Darrell Henderson out, and he had seven carries for 21 yards, along with two catches for 6 yards against the Chargers. He's well worth his price tag at 154.45.
Jackson seemed to be moving ahead of Joshua Kelley and Larry Roundtree as the No. 2 running back behind Austin Ekeler for the Chargers, but Jackson and Kelley split playing time against the Rams with Ekeler out. Kelley played 19 snaps to 10 snaps for Jackson, and Kelley finished with eight carries for 19 yards, along with one catch for minus-3 yards. Jackson had five carries for 13 yards, with one catch for 9 yards.
While Roundtree had a big game with eight carries for 63 yards, this could be a situation to avoid since it could be a committee behind Ekeler. None of these running backs have an ADP as of now.
McFarland also doesn't have an ADP as of now, but he could be worth a late-round flier as a backup to Najee Harris. Against the Eagles, McFarland had nine carries for 34 yards and a touchdown, along with one catch for 7 yards. He could be a lottery ticket if Harris were to miss any time this year.
So which sleepers, breakouts and busts should you target and fade? And which QB shocks the NFL with a top-five performance? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy cheat sheets for every single position, all from the model that called Josh Allen's huge season, and find out.
Three rookie receivers stood out in the preseason this week with Marshall, Moore and St. Brown. Marshall didn't have to worry about D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson against the Colts, and the Panthers moved him around to different wide receiver positions throughout the game. He finished with three catches for 88 yards on five targets, and he should prove to be a valuable weapon for Sam Darnold, even in a crowded offense. Marshall is a great late-round flier with his ADP at 146.79.
The same goes for Rondale Moore with an ADP of 148.67. He had three catches for 23 yards on four targets against the Cowboys, but that was without DeAndre Hopkins or A.J. Green. Still, Moore was a focal point of the offense when he was on the field, and he should have the chance to be the No. 3 receiver for Kyler Murray this year.
St. Brown could be the No. 1 receiver for the Lions, and he looked good playing in the slot against the Bills. He had two catches for 12 yards on two targets, but he had another reception called back due to a penalty. He's one of my favorite late-round picks, and his ADP is currently 149.74.
Aside from the rookies, you should see Marvin Jones get a boost in his ADP, which is currently at 119.18. He had three catches for 52 yards on four targets against the Browns, and he might be the Jaguars receiver you want this season. D.J. Chark is out with a hand injury, although he should be ready for Week 1, and Lawrence might like Jones better than Laviska Shenault, who had two catches for 14 yards on three targets. Shenault's ADP is at 117.43, while Chark's is falling from 77.94.
With Michael Thomas (ankle) and Tre'Quan Smith (leg) out with injuries, Marquez Callaway has been the best Saints receiver in training camp. He also had three catches for 61 yards on four targets against the Ravens, and he currently doesn't have an ADP. Smith is at 163.32, and I'd rather draft Callaway now.
Elijah Moore (quad) didn't play against the Giants, but he remains the first Jets receiver to draft this year. His ADP is 137.34, which is a tremendous value. The same goes for Corey Davis, who is actually going one spot ahead of Moore at 136.32. Davis had two catches for 18 yards on four targets, and he should be a valuable weapon for Wilson.
You should plan to take a late-round flier on Quez Watkins in deeper leagues, and he doesn't have an ADP as of now. Watkins had one catch for 79 yards and a touchdown on two targets against the Steelers, and he could have had another big play if Hurts didn't miss him down the field. He's fast, and the Eagles will find ways to get him the ball, even if he's behind Devonta Smith and Jalen Reagor on the depth chart.
It will be hard to draft Dallas Goedert at his ADP of 87.71 if Zach Ertz remains on the roster, and Ertz played more with the starters against the Steelers. Ertz finished with two catches for 20 yards on three targets, and Goedert had one catch for 34 yards on one target.
I'm still hopeful the Eagles will move on from Ertz, who has an ADP of 157.21, but you can't draft Goedert as a high-end starter if Ertz remains in Philadelphia.
Trautman is someone who has gained a lot of buzz in training camp and was trending toward a breakout candidate, but his first preseason action was disappointing against Baltimore. He didn't get a target, but hopefully that will change moving forward.
It's not time to panic, and his ADP remains low at 133.62. But Trautman needs a strong game in his second preseason outing to justify drafting him as a starting Fantasy option.