Before you draft anybody at sixth overall, you need to decide how much you love Cooper Kupp and Justin Jefferson.
If you think Kupp will be as good as he was in 2021, you should target him here. If you think Kupp will regress, you can't take him at sixth. If you think Jefferson will be as good or better than he was in 2021, you should target him next. If you think he'll be about as good, you can't take him either.
If you don't like either receiver, be ready to take a running back. Sixth overall is right in the wheelhouse for Derrick Henry, Najee Harris and Dalvin Cook. Given the stat productivity that they're each capable of delivering each week, they're really good picks.
That's the direction I went in from the sixth spot in a full-point PPR format where we start three wide receivers and one Flex:
1.06: Derrick Henry, RB, Titans
2.07: Leonard Fournette, RB, Buccaneers
3.06: Tee Higgins, WR, Bengals
4.07: Marquise Brown, WR, Cardinals
5.06: Justin Herbert, QB, Chargers
6.07: Drake London, WR, Falcons
7.06: T.J. Hockenson, TE, Lions
8.07: Rashaad Penny, RB, Seahawks
9.06: Russell Gage, WR, Buccaneers
10.07: Tyler Allgeier, RB, Falcons
11.06: Michael Gallup, WR, Cowboys
12.07: Jalen Tolbert, WR, Cowboys
13.06: David Njoku, TE, Browns
14.07: Pat Freiermuth, TE, Steelers
15.06: Odell Beckham, WR, free agent
My draft got a little weird after taking Henry first. I considered that pick a no-brainer; you can read about it below. I had every intention of finding a receiver in Round 2 and could have had Deebo Samuel, but I thought Leonard Fournette was the best player available. I can't shake the 17.3 PPR points per game he had last year, tied for fourth-best, and I don't think he really loses much of that role in the Bucs offense. I figured I'd find a great receiver in Round 3.
Turns out there were sharp drafters between my Fournette pick and my next one. Only four receivers were taken -- Mike Evans, Michael Pittman, Samuel and A.J. Brown -- but they were the four I would have loved to take. And interestingly enough, the highest player on my board was Javonte Williams. Starting with three running backs in full-PPR is always in play, but I knew if I had taken Williams I would have been precariously thin at wideout, and I didn't want that.
So I went with Tee Higgins. I still don't know if I like it. Higgins is a solid stat producer who can deliver some smash weeks, but it's tucked into my head that his ceiling is blocked by Ja'Marr Chase. I like him way more as a top-15 receiver, not as a No. 1 guy for a Fantasy lineup.
I am less nervous about Marquise Brown as my fourth-round pick, and definitely not nervous at all about Justin Herbert in Round 5. Brown is one of my favorite nabs at wideout because he has the upside to be a No. 1 receiver at the start of the year and the potential to stick as a top-20 receiver even after DeAndre Hopkins comes back from suspension. Brown's transition to a quality passing offense in Arizona offers a huge chance at a career year. Herbert is also in line for a career year as the Chargers' signal-caller. Getting a high-point producer in Round 5 is fantastic, but I admit the main reason I took Herbert was that I didn't like anyone else at running back or receiver or tight end.
My only regret? Not taking Brown in Round 4 and hoping he slid in Round 5. But that was a trend that did not work out for me in this draft. Because I didn't take that chance with Brown, I wound up taking chances in other spots that I think I'll end up paying dearly for.
For instance, I took Drake London ahead of Treylon Burks because I figured Burks had the better chance to make it back to me in Round 7. He went with the last pick in Round 6 and I settled for T.J. Hockenson in Round 7 instead. And I did the same thing in Round 8, putting Rashaad Penny on my bench (a good value pick!) with the hope Hunter Renfrow would slide to me in Round 9. He didn't, but Russell Gage did, so that wasn't as bad of a choice.
The only way to know if I made a good or bad move back in Round 3 is to map out who I would have taken had I picked Williams as my third running back instead of Higgins. Had I done that, the top half of my roster would have looked like this:
1.06: Derrick Henry, RB, Titans
2.07: Leonard Fournette, RB, Buccaneers
3.06: Javonte Williams, RB, Broncos
4.07: Marquise Brown, WR, Cardinals
5.06: DK Metcalf, WR, Seahawks
6.07: Drake London, WR, Falcons (or maybe Burks)
7.06: Tom Brady, QB, Buccaneers
8.07: Rashaad Penny, RB, Seahawks (or maybe Damien Harris)
9.06: Russell Gage, WR, Buccaneers
And let's say I passed on Fournette and went with Samuel in Round 2 -- my team would have looked like this:
1.06: Derrick Henry, RB, Titans
2.07: Deebo Samuel, WR, 49ers
3.06: Javonte Williams, RB, Broncos
4.07: Marquise Brown, WR, Cardinals
5.06: DK Metcalf, WR, Seahawks
6.07: Drake London, WR, Falcons (or maybe Burks)
7.06: Tom Brady, QB, Buccaneers
8.07: Rashaad Penny, RB, Seahawks (or maybe Damien Harris)
9.06: Melvin Gordon, RB, Broncos
I think the third option with Samuel might be the best roster. It loads me up on receivers with upside to thrive on 120 targets, it still gives me quality running backs, and I really like the value on Brady in Round 7.
Really, the difference between Herbert and Brady in Fantasy points probably is much closer than their ADP suggests. I know for my next draft to wait a little longer on quarterbacks, and to probably prioritize receiver a little stronger in Round 2.
And to not count on players making it back to me in the next round unless I'm picking closer to the ends of the round.
On the plus side, I really liked getting Penny. He's a stud rusher for however long he stays healthy -- a Round 8 risk is an easy price to pay; Round 6 might have been too steep. And I definitely will take Michael Gallup and Jalen Tolbert as a late-round combo platter in future drafts. Really like the idea of spending two picks on one potential spot in a high-flying Cowboys offense that needs a good third target.
Favorite pick: Derrick Henry
Everyone's too wrapped up in Henry's lack of catches and return from a broken foot. Meanwhile, he's been a top-four PPR running back on a per-game basis in each of the past three seasons. He's an absolute beast of a back who is locked into a large role, and he might even offer a hint at 35 receptions based on what he did in eight games in 2021 (18 receptions). The foot injury is a non-issue as he's been cutting and running on it since January. And his absence in 2021 is a good omen for 2022 because he's not coming off a season with 400 touches. Plus he's still running in the AFC South six times this season. I would have taken him as high as second overall, that's how sure I am of Henry.
Pick I might regret: Tee Higgins
For reasons I've already outlined, Higgins offers more stability than upside. He averaged 15.2 PPR points per game last year but had 17 or more PPR points just three times. There's definitely a place for Fantasy starters like this within the first 40 picks but I kind of felt like 30th was too soon. The problem I felt at the moment was that there wasn't someone else I liked more. D.J. Moore? Kyle Pitts? Maybe a running back? It all felt a little too soon.
Player who could make or break my team: Leonard Fournette
Part of the reason why I had a difficult choice in Round 3 was that I took Fournette in Round 2. I'm counting on the big fella to stay productive with the Buccaneers. If he doesn't, this pick will come back to haunt me in many ways because I could have taken a receiver and freed up my other picks. Then again, if Fournette is right, combining him with Henry should result in a fantastic anchor all season. This team rides with him.
