There are times when I wish my rankings process was less tied to projections and I've tried to move in that direction over the past two seasons. But I haven't gone far enough away from projections to where I can rank any wide receiver ahead of Cooper Kupp in 2022. Not yet, at least. If I was going to, Justin Jefferson would be my WR1 and likely a top-three pick in full PPR leagues. So I was thrilled to land him with the fifth pick in our pick-by-pick series.
Jefferson has upside well beyond what he did last year thanks to the hiring of his new head coach, Kevin O'Connell. O'Connell was Kupp's offensive coordinator last year and early reports suggest he's bringing a more pass-heavy offense with him to Minnesota. Jefferson was on pace for 117-1,859-11 in his final nine games of 2021. None of those numbers are out of reach in 2022. That type of upside is a great way to start your draft.
Here's the rest of my team from the fifth pick:
1.05: Justin Jefferson, WR, Vikings
2.08: Mark Andrews, TE, Ravens
3.05: David Montgomery, RB, Bears
4.08: Cam Akers, RB, Rams
5.05: Antonio Gibson, RB, Commanders
6.08: JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Chiefs
7.05: Jalen Hurts, QB, Eagles
8.08: Garrett Wilson, WR, Jets
9.05: Dameon Pierce, RB, Texans
10.08: Deshaun Watson, QB, Browns
11.05: Jahan Dotson, WR, Commanders
12.08: George Pickens, WR, Steelers
13.05: Marlon Mack, RB, Colts
14.08: Velus Jones, WR, Bears
15.05: Sterling Shepard, WR, Giants
Between Andrews, Montgomery, Smith-Schuster, Hurts, and the rookie wide receivers this is a very "my guys" kind of roster. It's unusual for me to take three running backs in a row starting in Round 3, but it's not unusual at all for me to take Montgomery in Round 3. In fact, I've taken him late in Round 2 in some of our mocks. I expect a more efficient Bears offense that leans heavily on the run. There's room for both Montgomery and Khalil Herbert to succeed in this offense.
That depth at running back causes me to focus more on wide receiver in the middle-to-late rounds but by pairing up Dameon Pierce and Marlon Mack I do expect I'll have the Texans starter for most of the year. That's not the most high-upside role, but if Pierce wins the role outright it's not hard to see him pushing to be a borderline No. 2 running back or better.
As for the rookie receivers, I love the talent of Wilson, Dotson, and Pickens, but they do have target/quarterback concerns, which is why they're falling so far. Dotson and Pickens, in particular, have had great camps and taken advantage of holdouts (or hold-ins) from the No. 1 receivers on their teams. All three of these guys have the ability to produce like a top-24 wide receiver if the target opportunity presents itself. I would not be surprised at all if Pickens beats Chase Claypool out for the WR2 role early in the season.
One other elephant in the room to acknowledge, this draft was held after Watson was suspended six games but before the league appealed the decision. If I could redo that pick I'd take Alexander Mattison and replace Marlon Mack with Justin Fields.
Favorite pick
I'm fine with Andrews at the 12th pick, so getting him at 20th overall made me very happy. He was the No. 1 tight end in football last year and would have ranked fourth at running back or sixth at wide receiver in full PPR. While I do expect some regression and believe Travis Kelce will reclaim his spot at TE1, that's far from certain. The Ravens traded away Marquise Brown and they're still waiting for J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards to come off the PUP list. This could be a very concentrated offense early on, which leads to a blistering start for Andrews. At the very least, he's a sure bet to give you a big edge on more than half of the league at his position.
Pick I might regret
To be clear, I still think Akers is the best back on the Rams and I still project him as a No. 2 back with upside. But not long after our draft Sean McVay's quotes about having "two starting running backs came out. I'm struggling with how to process that because, for the most part, McVay has leaned heavily into one back. Last year there were 14 games when either Darrell Henderson or Sony Michel had at least 16 touches. If Akers gets 16 touches a game, I'm fine with him here. If it's a 50-50 split, I'll wish I'd taken a wide receiver.
Player who could make or break my team
JuJu Smith-Schuster could be a top-10 wide receiver playing with Patrick Mahomes if he regains his 2018 form. If that happens, the pairing of him with Jefferson would be a problem for the rest of my league. Smith-Schuster could also bust as he has two of the past three seasons, leaving me with four rookies to fill out my WR2 and WR3 lineup slots. If he's healthy, I believe the former is more likely than the latter, but then again, that's why I picked him.
