Trying to find the right balance between wide receivers and running backs in your Fantasy Football drafts is always tough to do, but it might be even tougher in 2022 than usual. Because, while running back remains a risky bet after the first few rounds like it is every year, the wide receiver depth in the early rounds doesn't feel like it's there.
We're in a time of transition at the position. So many of the best players over the past few seasons are now in their late-20s, a time when wide receivers often start to fall off from their peaks. And this offseason saw so much turnover at the position that the likes of Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams no longer seem lke the sure-fire superstars they've been.
In our pick-by-pick draft series, I ended up with Tyreek Hill with the fourth pick of the third round, which is objectively good value based on where he typically goes: His ADP is 21.2 in NFC drafts right now and I got him at 28th overall, so there's nothing to complain about, right? Well, you can always find things to complain about, especially when your No. 1 wide receiver is switching teams and going from Patrick Mahomes to the unproven Tua Tagovailoa.
Here's my full team from the No. 4 spot:
1.4: Austin Ekeler, RB, Chargers
2.9: Josh Allen, QB, Bills
3.4: Tyreek Hill, WR, Dolphins
4.9: George Kittle, TE, 49ers
5.4: Jaylen Waddle, WR, Dolphins
6.9: Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Lions
7.4: Robert Woods, WR, Titans
8.9: Damien Harris, RB, Patriots
9.4: Chase Claypool, WR, Steelers
10.9: Kenneth Gainwell, RB, Eagles
11.4: Jarvis Landry, WR, Saints
12.9: Kenny Golladay, WR, Giants
13.4: Samaje Perine, RB, Bengals
14.9: Mecole Hardman, WR, Chiefs
15.4: Jamaal Williams, RB, Lions
As you can see, I compounded the risk by pairing Hill with teammate Jaylen Waddle. Again, the value is hard to argue with, as Waddle fell to me at 52nd overall compared to his ADP of 34.9. But I have concerns about how Waddle is going to fare going from the No. 1 target in an RPO-heavy offense to the No. 2 in a brand new offense that may not necessarily have the volume to support two must-start receivers, based on how it typically worked in San Francisco, at least.
But there's also the fact that Hill and Waddle might just take away from each other which figures to potentially hurt my team. That's not a guarantee that things won't work out -- they're both incredibly talented players, and there's upside beyond them at wide receiver -- but it's a sign of how things can go a little sideways at wide receiver if you don't prioritize it early. When I took Josh Allen with my second pick instead of someone like Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel, or A.J. Brown, I was putting myself in a spot where I might not love my WRs.
I think taking a QB early is a good idea this season, but it's important to remember who you're drafting with -- in this case, a bunch of QB-hating Fantasy analysts who do things like letting Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes fall to the fifth round. In more typical leagues, where QBs tend to get pushed up draft boards, Allen is more of a priority. When I'm picking with the experts, I probably hurt my team by pushing Allen up the board. Of course, if he scores 30 points per game, it won't matter much, and it'll cover up for a lot of other apparent holes.
Favorite pick: Kenneth Gainwell
Getting Gainwell in the 10th round is a steal. I think he'll have standalone value in the Eagles offense as the No. 2 back, but the real upside comes if Miles Sanders falls out of favor or loses his job. The Eagles already trusted Gainwell in the red zone last season and he figures to be the primary pass-catching back in most situations, so there is considerable upside here. Damien Harris is my RB2 to open the season, but if Gainwell surpasses him, that just ups the ceiling for my squad considerably.
Pick I might regret: Josh Allen
It's not that Allen won't be good or won't be a difference maker. Even as deep as QB is most seasons, the high-end guys are still consistently giving you a bigger edge than before. However, if Allen runs a bit less this season, especially near the end zone, he might be just a bit less of a difference maker than he has been. And, given how much earlier I took him than the rest of the quarterbacks went, that's a big bet that may not pay off fully.
Player who could make or break my team: Jaylen Waddle
It's not out of the question that the Dolphins could have two top-12 wide receivers, but it's asking Tagovailoa to do something he's never really shown he can do. Waddle was fed a steady diet of quick-hitting passes out of the RPO game last season, and that volume is likely not going to be there this season, so he'll have to make up for it by being more efficient, especially as a big-play receiver. If he can do that, Hill's presence won't cost him too much, but it's obviously a gamble.
