You play to win the game. Herm Edwards wasn't talking about Fantasy Football, but he might as well have been. When you're drafting your team on Draft Day, your very first consideration should be: "How is this guy going to help me win my league?"
Of course, some guys are more help than others. In 2019 those guys were Christian McCaffrey, Lamar Jackson and Michael Thomas. Mark Andrews, Darren Waller, Aaron Jones and Chris Godwin helped, too. Who are those guys going to be in 2020? That's what we're here to figure out.
Below I've listed my favorite league-winner for each round with at least one honorable mention. Well, almost each round. The players selected in the first and second rounds should all be potential league-winners. That's the whole reason they're being drafted so high. So for the first two rounds it's probably better to talk about the players I don't think can win you a league at their ADP.
Based on ADP, the first three are obvious. If you spend a first-round pick on Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson you're making a mistake. Same goes for Dak Prescott (or any other quarterback) in Round 2. Yes, Mahomes, Jackson and Prescott have shown this type of upside. But they were league-winners precisely because they weren't drafted this early. Quarterback is so deep it's just not fair to expect any quarterback to return first-round value.
It's also hard to envision Josh Jacobs, Nick Chubb or Joe Mixon as a league-winner in a PPR league. All three have their upside limited by the fact that they won't have a huge role in the passing game. Yes, Derrick Henry has the same problem, but he has the benefit of being on a team that will run as much as any other, behind a good offensive line -- oh yeah, and he's an athletic specimen unlike any other starting running back in the league.
But that's enough negativity. Let's get to the league winners.
Projections powered by
Sportsline
Conner is the one Round 3 running back with legitimate top-five upside. We saw it in 2018 when Conner finished as RB6 despite missing three games. We even saw it last year, when Conner was the RB9 through the first half of 2019. Yes, there's Jaylen Samuels, Benny Snell and Anthony Mcfarland. But none of them are as talented as Conner. Mike Tomlin's history is pretty clear. If Conner can stay healthy, he's approaching 300 touches, and that should mean a top-five season in the Steelers offense.
Honorable Mention: Chris Godwin
Projections powered by
Sportsline
D.J. Moore just caught 87 passes for 1,135 yards as a 22-year-old catching passes from Kyle Allen and Will Grier. Oh yeah, and he missed nearly two full games. Teddy Bridgewater will be an upgrade at quarterback, giving Moore 110-catch upside. If his touchdown luck improves, he could be a legitimate threat to Michael Thomas and Davante Adams at the top of the PPR rankings.
Honorable Mention: JuJu Smith-Schuster
Projections powered by
Sportsline
We're to Round 5 and it's getting a bit more complicated. Taylor could be a league-winner in the Miles Sanders' mold, taking over as a midseason rookie and posting top-10 numbers. It's also possible, though less likely, he dispatches Mack without an injury. The key will be for Taylor to prove himself in the passing game, where Nyheim Hines remains an obstacle. Despite the drawbacks, it's important to note that Taylor is an absolute physical specimen behind one of the best offensive lines in football. While there are reasons the breakout may not happen this year, it would be enormous if it did.
Honorable Mention: A.J. Brown
Projections powered by
Sportsline
In Round 6 it's possible for Kareem Hunt to be a contributor to a winning in team even if Nick Chubb stays healthy. Hunt was a top-20 back last year in the eight games he shared with Chubb. And this year's Browns will likely have more running back opportunities. That's why Chubb is one of my favorite Zero-RB targets. But the league-winning upside comes if something happens to Chubb. In that scenario, Hunt would be my second favorite back in Fantasy.
Honorable Mention: Cam Akers
Projections powered by
Sportsline
Through Week 14 least year, Chark was WR9 in PPR scoring, sandwiched between Kenny Golladay and Moore. So I have no idea what the third-year receiver is doing here in Round 7. Gardner Minshew should be improved in Year 2 and Jacksonville's defense looks like one of the worst in football. Chark made a huge leap last year, but there's no reason to believe he's done improving at 23 years old. He has legitimate 1,200-yard, 10-touchdown upside.
Honorable Mention: A.J. Green
Projections powered by
Sportsline
Like Taylor, Dobbins may need an injury to reach his full potential in Year 1. But also like Taylor, Dobbins is involved in arguably the best run offense in the league and is a phenomenal prospect, so that upside is enormous. The nice thing is that both the Colts and the Ravens have plans to give their rookies touches early in the year, so they'll have every opportunity to earn more work. Don't be surprised if Dobbins breaks off a couple of long runs early in the year a la Nick Chubb as a rookie. If that happens, Dobbins could see 15 touches a game in the second half. In this offense, that's enough to be a league-winner.
Honorable Mention: Will Fuller
Projections powered by
Sportsline
Dirk Koetter's offense has averaged 125 targets peer year to the tight end position. Hayden Hurst is now in position to take as many of those as he can handle. Hurst has the pedigree as a former first round pick and has earned rave reviews from Matt Ryan as the most athletic tight end Ryan has ever played with. Austin Hooper was the No. 3 tight end on a per-game basis last year, and Hurst has every bit as much upside as that.
Honorable Mention: Brandin Cooks
Projections powered by
Sportsline
When last we saw Cam Newton healthy, has was the No. 6 quarterback in Fantasy through 14 games, completing 69% of his passes with more than 400 rushing yards. If he stays healthy in New England, there's no reason to believe he doesn't have that type of upside in 2020. The Patriots don't have great weapons, but neither did the Panthers, and Newton has finished as a top five Fantasy quarterback every time he's played 16 games. He's quickly becoming my favorite late-round target.
Honorable Mention: Latavius Murray
Projections powered by
Sportsline
It's not hard to imagine how Alexander Mattison becomes a league winner. After all, Dalvin Cook has never stayed healthy for 16 games. Mattison averaged 4.6 yards per carry as a rookie and was better in the passing game than advertised. If Cook missed time, Mattison would be an instant top-12 back in all formats. And it may not have to be an injury. There have been recent rumblings that Cook's contract situation could linger into the regular season.
Honorable Mention: Darrell Henderson
Projections powered by
Sportsline
Before he tore his ACL, Williams led the Dolphins in targets, receptions and yards. This, in his first eight games as a pro. The reports out of training camp have been absolutely glowing about Williams, who appears to be fully recovered. While DeVante Parker was a star after Williams went down, it sure sounds like there's a legitimate competition for the No. 1 role in Miami. If Williams wins it he could be an absolute steal in the double-digit rounds. I'm considering him as early as Round 8.
Honorable Mention: Tony Pollard
Projections powered by
Sportsline
Evans and Edmonds both need an injury, but they may also have the most upside. Harris is trying to take advantage of Sony Michel's injury, but the New England backfield is such a mess it's hard to project true upside. Herndon may be the most interesting of this group. He's undeniably talented, he plays a weak position and almost all of the Jets receivers have missed time during training camp. The Jets pass offense could be very consolidated around Herndon, Jamison Crowder and Le'Veon Bell.
So which Fantasy football busts should you completely avoid? And which running back going off the board early should you fade? Visit SportsLine now to get cheat sheets from the model that called Baker Mayfield's disappointing season, and find out.
