Fantasy Football Draft Prep: Projections Week -- QB tier rankings

Projections can be a useful tool when used right, but there are also issues with boiling down all the factors that influence a player's expectation into a single number. 

Whenever two projections are close enough that they could be swayed by a few extra opportunities -- an extra target here, an extra rush attempt there -- it's hard to put much weight on the minor differences. But there is plenty of value in considering which players have projections with a significant gap between them, or who comes in well above or below their Average Draft Position, and why. 

One easy way to look at projections is in tiers, grouping together the players that came out with Fantasy point totals within the same ballpark. Below are Heath Cummings' and Ben Gretch's projections tiers for quarterbacks for both 6-point passing touchdown and 4-point passing touchdown scoring systems.

The below tiers are purely where the players come out in a "most likely" scenario. Typically projections assume reasonable health, and by their nature they don't do a good job of capturing upside or downside, all of which are important context that should be applied to the below player groupings. While projections aren't Draft rankings -- you can find Heath's ranks, along with Jamey Eisenberg's and Dave Richard's, on our Draft Prep page -- the tiers do provide a useful baseline to consider player value.

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Heath Cummings' 6-point passing TD QB tiers

400-plus points

375-385 points

360-375 points

Patrick Mahomes

Aaron Rodgers

Carson Wentz

DeShaun Watson

Andrew Luck

Cam Newton



Baker Mayfield




345-355 points

330-340 points

300-320 points

Ben Roethlisberger

Russell Wilson

Jimmy Garoppolo

Jameis Winston

Lamar Jackson

Andy Dalton

Jared Goff

Drew Brees

Derek Carr

Mitchell Trubisky

Kyler Murray

Kirk Cousins

Matt Ryan

Josh Allen


Dak Prescott

Philip Rivers



Tom Brady


Heath Cummings' 4-point passing TD QB tiers

350-plus points

320-330 points

295-315 points

DeShaun Watson

Patrick Mahomes

Baker Mayfield


Cam Newton

Lamar Jackson


Aaron Rodgers

Jameis Winston


Andrew Luck

Mitchell Trubisky


Carson Wentz

Dak Prescott



Ben Roethlisberger



Josh Allen



Kyler Murray



Matt Ryan



Jared Goff



Russell Wilson

280-290 points

260-275 points


Drew Brees

Jimmy Garoppolo


Philip Rivers

Marcus Mariota


Tom Brady

Andy Dalton



Derek Carr


Ben Gretch's 6-point passing TD QB tiers

425-plus points

375-385 points

360-365 points

Patrick Mahomes

Deshaun Watson

Carson Wentz


Andrew Luck

Baker Mayfield


Aaron Rodgers

Cam Newton



Russell Wilson



Jameis Winston




345-355 points

330-340 points

310-325 points

Jared Goff

Tom Brady

Dak Prescott

Kyler Murray

Ben Roethlisberger

Andy Dalton

Drew Brees

Lamar Jackson

Kirk Cousins

Matt Ryan

Mitchell Trubisky

Jimmy Garoppolo


Philip Rivers

Ben Gretch's 4-point passing TD QB tiers

365-plus points

340-345 points

325-330 points

Patrick Mahomes

Deshaun Watson

Andrew Luck



Cam Newton




310-320 points

295-305 points

275-290

Aaron Rodgers

Jared Goff

Dak Prescott

Jameis Winston

Mitchell Trubisky

Tom Brady

Kyler Murray

Matt Ryan

Philip Rivers

Baker Mayfield

Drew Brees

Andy Dalton

Carson Wentz

Ben Roethlisberger

Jimmy Garoppolo

Russell Wilson


Kirk Cousins

Lamar Jackson



Senior Fantasy Writer

Heath Cummings is a Senior Fantasy Writer that covers Daily Fantasy Sports of all types. Before coming to CBS Sports he was a staff writer for Footballguys and the host of The Fantasy Football Show on... Full Bio

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