Hello, everyone. Dan Schneier (@DanSchneierNFL) here, and we're inching closer to the start of the 2021 NFL regular season and even closer to your Fantasy Football draft days. Our first full weekend of preseason football is in the books and we're now in the stretch run of Fantasy Football 2021 draft preparation. We want to get you caught up with everything here and so we'll be dedicating each of the following weeks to one position group with an offshoot of content specific to that position. This week will be the quarterbacks (and tight ends to come later).
At the start of each week from now until the end of the Fantasy season, I'll be organizing a panel of sorts asking questions of our FFT team and they will be delivering answers. We'll hear from Dave Richard, Jamey Eisenberg, Chris Towers, Heath Cummings and Adam Aizer. If you have any burning questions you want answered, reach out to me on Twitter @DanSchneierNFL. If the questions are good, I'll work them into the weekly panel.
Without further ado, let's dive into this week's questions:
1. Which QB's ADP makes the least sense to you?
Adam: Josh Allen 15th overall makes little sense to me. First of all, it's too early for any QB in my opinion. But after Patrick Mahomes, I see a tier of five more QBs who are basically even (Allen, Murray, Jackson, Prescott, Wilson), so I don't see a reason to take the first QB in this tier. Let someone take Allen in Round 2 and you can take Wilson in Round 4.
Dave: CBS Sports' ADP has begun to reflect the results of Fantasy drafts around the world, and people are still taking quarterbacks unnecessarily high. Patrick Mahomes at 10.69 and Josh Allen at 16.15 are overpriced, as are Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, Justin Herbert and Aaron Rodgers all before 40th overall. It took Dak Prescott getting MRIs to fall to a reasonable spot at 49.11. Why reach for a quarterback if you only have to start one?!
Jamey: Justin Herbert as the No. 4 quarterback at 32.42 stands out the most, even if I don't agree with Patrick Mahomes having an ADP in Round 1 or Josh Allen having an ADP in Round 2. I like Herbert this season, but he shouldn't be drafted ahead of Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott or Russell Wilson. Aaron Rodgers also being drafted ahead of Wilson and Prescott is puzzling.
Chris: Justin Herbert as QB4. There's a lot to like about Herbert coming off his historic rookie season, and it's natural to suspect he'll only get better in Year 2. Herbert scored the second-most Fantasy points of any rookie QB ever in 2020, behind only Cam Newton's 2011 season that saw him drop 404.6 points in CBS Fantasy standard scoring, finishing as QB5. Newton only dropped to sixth the following season, but his total fantasy points fell by nearly 45 points. That was a similar scenario to Herbert's rookie season, as 2011 was a historic year for passing, at least in part due to defenses being less prepared coming off limited work together coming off the lockout. We already saw some regression for Herbert, who had multiple passing touchdowns in eight of his first nine starts, but only three of his final six. Herbert should still be a starting Fantasy quarterback, but I can't justify taking him over any of Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson, or Dak Prescott, at least.
Heath: Justin Herbert. He's falling fast but it makes no sense for Herbert to go ahead of Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson, or Dak Prescott. I prefer Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Ryan Tannehill as well. Regression of Herbert's rushing touchdowns and the Chargers total plays will cost him any of the Fantasy points he may gain by improving in Year 2. Don't draft Herbert to be more than he was last year.
- Is Myles Gaskin a backup? Is Phillip Lindsay a workhorse? What did we think of the rookie QBs? We have preseason notes and more on the Fantasy Football Today in 5 podcast. Listen below and follow at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts:
2. Which QB (outside the first two rounds*) has an ADP that makes the most sense to you?
Adam: Justin Fields and Trey Lance are not being drafted as starters, but they are being drafted ahead of low-upside #2 QBs like Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jared Goff. This is exactly how Fantasy managers should play it.
Dave: Prescott's makes sense at 49.11. He's downgraded because of his shoulder issues, but there's still hope for him to play this preseason and show the world he's fine. And I think he kind of needs to do it or else he'll see his Fantasy stock continue to slide. Honorable mention: Jalen Hurts at 94.69 -- the press clippings were bad early but if he strings together some good practices, he'll be a bargain.
Jamey: Ryan Tannehill as the No. 10 quarterback off the board is fantastic, and he has top-five upside with the addition of Julio Jones. I don't like his ADP at 68.49, but I love the idea of drafting him as a low-end starter given his potential, plus what he's shown us since becoming the starter for the Titans in the middle of 2019..
Chris: Tom Brady as QB9. I might have him ranked a little below that, but I can see bumping him up because of the safety he brings to the table. The Buccaneers are ludicrously stacked at the skill positions, and, after a sort of rough start to the season -- hitting rock bottom in Week 9 against the Saints -- he played at arguably a higher level than we've ever seen, with 30 touchdowns in his final 11 games and a 4,800-yard pace. He doesn't have QB1 upside because he lacks rushing production, but Brady is about as safe as a non-Patrick Mahomes QB can get.
Heath: I have Russell Wilson as QB5 in the Round 4 or Round 5 range, so his ADP makes the most sense to me. Wilson has QB1 upside and there's really no arguing that but questions about his volume and his late season struggles the past two seasons keep him out of the top-five in ADP. That makes sense to me, but I'd still rather draft him than Aaron Rodgers or Kyler Murray.
Fantasy Football Today Newsletter
Know What Your Friends Don't
Get tips, advice and news to win your league - all from the FFT podcast team.
Thanks for signing up!
Keep an eye on your inbox.
There was an error processing your subscription.
3. Which QB have you been drafting the most?
Adam: I try to get the last of the top six QBs, but if that doesn't happen I look for Tom Brady. He feels incredibly safe because the Bucs will throw a lot and have arguably the best receiving corps in the NFL. Brady also has big upside as he was the #3 QB per game in his last seven games of the regular season.
Dave: I've jumped at the chance to take Josh Allen when he falls to late Round 4 or Round 5 (which apparently may sound impossibly low to the people who have been drafting at CBS). But I've also waited and come through with Tom Brady or Matthew Stafford and Trey Lance with late picks. Either way, I'm looking for a fair value on Draft Day.
Jamey: Tannehill for sure, but I also like Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford and Jalen Hurts. If I don't end up with a top-five quarterback at a good cost -- Round 5 is the earliest I would draft one of Lamar Jackson, Murray or Prescott -- then I usually wait for one of Tannehill, Brady, Stafford or Hurts. All of them have the chance to be special this season, with Hurts having the most upside with his rushing ability. Unfortunately, Hurts also has the most downside given his inexperience and lack of a proven receiving corps.
Chris: If I'm taking a QB early, it's probably going to be Kyler Murray. If I'm waiting, I've been doubling up on Cam Newton and Justin Fields, with the hope that if and when Newton loses the job, Fields will have the Bears job locked up. It's possible neither is starting by Week 1, but I'm confident enough in my ability to stream to chase the upside of two rushing QB.
Heath: It depends. In analyst drafts where no QB goes before Round 3 I've drafted a lot of Patrick Mahomes, because I legitimately believe Mahomes should be a second round pick in non-PPR and an early third in full PPR. In drafts that are less quarterback averse, I draft a lot of Ryan Tannehill because he gets drafted as if he's going to be worse with Julio Jones than he was without Julio Jones.
4. Which QB have you been drafting the least?
Adam: Aside from Josh Allen, I have been avoiding Trevor Lawrence. I hope to have my starting QB before it's time for Lawrence to come off the board, and I prefer Burrow and Hurts to Lawrence anyway.
Dave: I took Patrick Mahomes in Round 5 of the King's Classic last weekend. It's the first time I've taken him in a one-QB league this year. I'm simply not willing to spent a Round 1, 2 or 3 pick on Mahomes when I know there are players at other positions I can build my lineup with and still find a good quarterback later on.
Jamey: Rodgers for sure. I don't expect him to repeat as the No. 1 quarterback again this season, and I also don't expect him to finish as a top-five quarterback. And given his ADP at 37.63, he's easily someone I will avoid this season.
Chris: Baker Mayfield. He doesn't cost very much, but I have a really hard time getting excited about a quarterback in a run-first offense who doesn't run himself. Mayfield had just three games last season (out of 18, including playoffs) with more than two passing touchdowns, and only four with three or more total touchdowns. It's not impossible for a low-volume QB to be a starting-caliber option -- and I'm not entirely opposed to streaming Mayfield against the Chiefs and Texans to open the season -- but there are probably 25 quarterbacks I would rather draft, including stash-and-hold guys like Fields and Trey Lance.
Heath: I haven't had occasion to draft Josh Allen this year. Too many people are behaving as if Allen won't have some regression off his career year despite the evidence we've seen the past two seasons from Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson. I'd rather draft both of them than Allen, and it's rare that drafts go that way.
5. Which QB will benefit most from an offseason coaching change?
Adam: There are not a lot of eligible QBs for this question, but I'll go with Russell Wilson. Offensive coordinator Shane Waldron will have Wilson get rid of the ball quickly, which will hopefully make the Seahawks offense less predictable. It's time for Wilson to get some MVP votes!
Dave: It's going to be Russell Wilson. The Seahawks are moving to an up-tempo passing game that will stress defenses. I expect Wilson to attempt plenty of passes and complete a lot of them. He was starting to put together an MVP-type year in 2020 until he struggled with zone defenses. That's going to change because the new offense will make things harder on zone defenses and give Wilson a chance to not necessarily throw three touchdowns and 300 yards every game, but be productive most weeks with some smash stats on occasion.
Jamey: Wilson will with the addition of Shane Waldron as Seattle's offensive coordinator. The Seahawks should be more aggressive throwing the ball, with Wilson getting the ball out quicker, and we know what he's capable of when his passing attempts are up. It wouldn't be a surprise to see Wilson finish as a top-three Fantasy quarterback this season.
Chris: I think Tua Tagovailoa is a dark horse for this one. The Dolphins promoted TE coach George Godsey and RB coach Eric Studesville to be co-offensive coordinators, and I'm hoping they'll be more aggressive with their young QB this season. Tagovailoa had one of the lowest average times from snap to throw in the league and he had the sixth-most pass attempts in run/pass option plays, and while those low-risk plays are a vital part of any NFL offense at this point, you'd like to see the Dolphins trust Tagovailoa to take the top off the defense a bit more. If his full complement of weapons is ever healthy, I expect they will.
Heath: Matthew Stafford, though I'm not sure it's the coaching change that will make all the difference. Sean McVay will be the best offensive mind he's played for, but the duo of Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp makes things a lot easier as well.
So which sleepers, breakouts and busts should you target and fade? And which QB shocks the NFL with a top-five performance? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy cheat sheets for every single position, all from the model that called Josh Allen's huge season, and find out.