It's weird to say that a team starting Tom Savage at quarterback is going to be better then they were last year. Well, it would be if that team hadn't started Brock Osweiler in 2016.

To be clear, we don't know for sure that Savage will start every game for the Texans in 2016. I'd bet on DeShaun Watson taking over somewhere between Week 4 and Week 8, but either will be an upgrade over Osweiler.

That's great news for DeAndre Hopkins, who was one of last year's biggest Fantasy disappointments. Hopkins followed up his spectacular 2015 season with a disappointing 78-954-4 line. I wouldn't necessarily expect him to rebound all the way, but he's a top-20 receiver again.

Improvement at quarterback would also help Lamar Miller, who was a low-volume, high-efficiency running back in Miami but the opposite in 2016. Some of that can be blamed on the lack of effectiveness in the passing game. I'd expect Miller will, at the very least, improve in the touchdown department after running for only five touchdowns last year. 

What does the rest of the offense look like? Well, it just changed. 

Fuller was a late-round breakout candidate mostly because of his speed. Nearly one fourth of Fuller's catches in is rookie season went for more than 20 yards but he also struggled with drops. A collarbone injury can take around 2 months to heal and for now I'm assuming he avoids the PUP list and misses the first three games of the season. That means he'll be more of a waiver wire add than a late round pick. It also provides more opportunity for Braxton Miller to step up at the start of the season, but it doesn't greatly change the outlook of the quarterbacks or the rest of the offense.

*Rankings expressed below are in terms of expected Fantasy points. This is a part of our actual Fantasy Football rankings but not a direct correlation to my rankings. Things like injury risk, upside, etc. factor into rankings but they're not being talked about here. This is simply an expectation as the team is currently constructed.

Houston Texans
Player NameExpected FPPosition RankExpected PPR FPPosition Rank
182.6#11218.6#11
147.8#16233.8#15
84.6#16136.6#17
53.2#6761.2#72

Breaking down the touches

I've got the Texans coming in at right around 560 pass attempts in 2017 and 450 rush attempts. What I find far more interesting than the split is how the pass attempts are distributed. The Texans threw the ball to their tight ends 163 times last year. That's more than 2015 and 2016 combined. Forty-one of those came out of DeAndre Hopkins' total as he fell from an absurd 192 all the way down to 151 targets. 

I am assuming the tight end numbers normalize, but Fiedorowicz and Ryan Griffin will both be involved in the offense. I'm not sure Hopkins can expect a huge rebound in targets, but he should be more efficient than he was last year. What about everyone else?

Texans touches
Player RuSHARE RuATT ReSHARE TGT REC TD
Lamar Miller 60% 270 8% 47 36 8
D'Onta Foreman 20% 90 3% 14 8 3
DeAndre Hopkins 0% 0 27% 150 86 6
Will Fuller 0% 0 14% 79 413
Braxton Miller 0% 0 11% 75 403
C.J. Fiedorowicz 0% 0 14% 80 52 5
Ryan Griffin 0% 0 11% 60 40 2

Of note: 

  • Foreman has had a rocky offseason with reports of him being out of shape and an off-field incident. He has upside if he's on the field early this year and Miller struggles, but he could also be completely worthless in Fantasy.
  • Fiedorowicz has No. 1 upside at tight end if he could wrestle away a larger percentage of the tight end targets from Griffin. As long as they're both heavily involved it severely limits their potential.
  • Fuller struggled with drops last season, but his blazing speed and big play ability makes him a fine flier in best ball leagues.

The Leftovers

Braxton Miller is receiving a lot of hype in Houston as a second-year breakout candidate. Miller is a converted quarterback that is apparently making great strides at receiver. He has great size and speed for a slot receiver and little competition for that specific role. If he makes a splash it will come at the expense of Fuller and the tight ends. Fuller's absence in the preseason should give Miller a great chance to earn more targets.