It can be easy to overreact to any given week in Fantasy Football. Sometimes, you have to, or else you'll miss out on the potential next big thing. But you have to know if what you're overreacting to matters. A running back getting five carries and breaking off one long touchdown run might be just what he needs to break into a bigger role, but it also could just be that he get lucky on one play against a soft defense in a blowout.
I'm looking for surprising performances and storylines from Week 11 that might matter, and trying to identify a few that you don't really need to worry about. Here's what we can learn from Sunday's action:
Five things that mattered in Week 11
The Titans offensive struggles
The Titans managed to win their first two games without Derrick Henry against the Rams and Saints, but Sunday saw an embarrassing 22-13 loss to the Texans. And while the offense put up over 400 yards, that's a bit misleading, as they needed 79 offensive plays to do so. They are already missing Henry, obviously, as well as Julio Jones, and A.J. Brown left Sunday's game with a finger injury and then a chest injury -- in addition to knee troubles he's been playing through all season. And they also lost Marcus Johnson, who had been showing signs in Jones' absence, to a hamstring injury Sunday. The Titans have scored six offensive touchdowns over the past three games, two of which came on drives that started inside the opponent's red zone; two others came on drivers that started from outside their own 40, too. This offense just doesn't look very good right now, they're splitting RB touches three ways, and Brown is banged up. I'm not sure there's a single player I definitely want to start in Week 11 against the Patriots.
Deebo Samuel's usage
Samuel had a career-high five carries in Week 10 and topped it just one week later as he rushed for 79 yards on eight carries including a touchdown against the Jaguars Sunday. And the 49ers really are using Samuel like a hybrid player right now, as he played 10 snaps lined up at RB. He was still used as a wide receiver, of course (43 snaps, 23 routes), so don't be too concerned about his one-catch line. The way I view it, Samuel's time spent as a running back looks to just be in addition to his time as a wide receiver, and it has helped him continue to put up big numbers even with Brandon Aiyuk stepping up and George Kittle returning from injury. Maybe Samuel won't continue to be one of the league leaders in target share, but if he's going to get five carries every week -- especially in and around the red zone -- he can remain an elite Fantasy option even alongside Kittle and Aiyuk; that could also create enough room for both Kittle and Aiyuk to be strong Fantasy starters, too.
Antonio Gibson's usage
I was conflicted about this one. On the one hand, 19 carries in a close game! On the other, just 49% snap share, a dip from last week's promising 63% share coming off the bye. Yikes. Ultimately, I think this matters and is a positive, because of the circumstances in which Gibson's snaps came. Between the first, third, and fourth quarters, Gibson played 67% of the team's offensive snaps; he played zero in the second following a fumble. While it's never a great sign when a player loses playing time for a single mistake, the fact that Washington went right back to him with a significant role -- including a decent 44% route share outside of the second quarter -- is a good sign. Gibson's role has mostly been limited to just obvious rushing situations for the first two seasons of his career, but that has changed a bit over the past two weeks. He could be in for a good stretch run.
Elijah Moore's big day
Moore put up a career-best eight catches for 141 yards (with 15 rushing yards on top for good measure), and it wasn't just the result of one or two big plays. He led the team with 11 targets and played 79.7% of the snaps, his highest mark since Week 1. He was second on the team with 35 routes run on 42 passing plays, too. Moore has been trending up in his production of late, but he had played 36%, 60%, and 56% of the team's snaps the previous three games. Seeing an increased role is key to him sustaining his recent hot streak, and if he's going to be playing nearly every pass play, his breakout potential for the rest of the season is real. He's the top target on waivers heading into Week 12 and can be viewed as at least a top-36 WR moving forward.
Dak Prescott's struggles
I don't think Prescott is going to be a pumpkin for the rest of the season, but I'm not sure you're going to want him to be part of your Thanksgiving dinner plans. Amari Cooper (COVID-19) is already out for Thursday's game against the Raiders, and there's a pretty good chance CeeDee Lamb won't be there after he left Sunday's game with a concussion. It's a timing problem -- Lamb will have to clear the league's five-phase return-to-participation protocol, and with just three days off before the game, there just isn't a lot of wiggle room. Prescott could be playing without his two star wideouts, and as we saw Sunday in a pretty good matchup, he couldn't overcome that. It'll be tough to trust him if Lamb joins Cooper on the sidelines.
Three things that (maybe) didn't matter
Mike Williams' bounce-back game
It was nice to see Williams produce nearly 100 yards and a touchdown after he had just 137 yards and no scores in his previous four games, but if you're hoping Sunday's performance was a sign that he might be back to being a reliable Fantasy option, I don't think that's what happened. Prior to his late 53-yard touchdown, Williams as on pace for another subpar outing -- in fact, four catches for 44 yards on five targets wasn't far from what his recent stretch had produced. What we saw Sunday was the upside of Williams' current role as the deep threat in the Chargers offense. He's a clear third option behind Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler in the receiving hierarchy, and his production will likely continue to be hit or miss. He's a WR3 because it's still a pretty valuable role.
Dan Arnold's goose egg
It's hard to make sense of much of what the Jaguars offense has tried to do this season, but Arnold getting no targets is especially hard to make sense. In part, it was probably a result of a terrible game script -- the Jaguars didn't run their first play until there was 1:55 left in the first quarter, and the 49ers had run 34 offensive plays before the Jaguars ran their fifth. They ended up with just 44 offensive snaps, and Arnold ran a route on 23 of 30 pass plays, right in line with his rate from Week 10 when he had eight targets. This was a disappointing game from a guy who had at least 10 PPR points in four of his previous five, but I'm writing it off as the result of just a weird game flow.
Rondale Moore's 11 targets
Moore had 11 targets in the Cardinals 23-13 win over the Seahawks, which seems exciting on the surface for a player we've been waiting for a breakout from. However, he turned his 11 targets into just 51 yards, which is your first sign that this wasn't as promising as it seems -- Moore had -9 air yards in the game. His first three targets came on nearly identical plays, as Colt McCoy checked down to him within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage when his deep options weren't available. His fourth came on a swing pass as he motioned into the backfield, and it nearly ended in a safety for the Cardinals offense. He didn't have a single target travel more than 5 yards past the line of scrimmage. It's good that the Cardinals got Moore as involved as they did, but he was still fourth in routes run among wide receivers and played just 39% of the snaps. I think Moore has a ton of potential, but not in his current role. His role Sunday was more about trying to get the ball out of McCoy's hands as quickly as possible than anything else.
