Fantasy Football Instant Reaction: How Greg Olsen projects after signing with the Seattle Seahawks
Greg Olsen is signing with the Seahawks, and Heath Cummings tells you what that means for his projections.
Greg Olsen is not ready to head to the broadcast booth quite yet. First, he's heading to the Seattle Seahawks. Olsen agreed with the Seahawks on a one-year, $7 million dollar deal on Wednesday. This move gives Russell Wilson another experienced weapon and tempers any hope we had for a Will Dissly or Jacob Hollister breakout. But first, let's talk about Olsen's 2020 projection.
Olsen caught 52 of 82 targets in 2019 for 597 yards and two touchdowns. Wilson will be the best quarterback he's ever played with, but it's hard to imagine a major spike in efficiency at age 35. Olsen hasn't averaged better than 7.7 yards per target since 2016, which is also the last time he played 16 games without an injury. He'll also have to share tight end targets with Dissly, who is expected to be ready for the 2020 season.
In 2019, 102 (19.7%) of Wilson's passes were targeted for tight ends. That was up from 2018, when the team only targeted the position 82 times. With the addition of Olsen, I've bumped the team's projected tight end targets up to 118, with 77 of them going to Olsen and 41 going to Dissly. That is a low number based on Olsen's career but would be the highest target total for a tight end in Seattle since Jimmy Graham left. The difference is Graham's Seahawks threw 555 passes. I have the 2020 version projected for 514 attempts.
With 77 targets, Olsen Jared Cook. It's better than guys like Mike Gesicki, T.J. Hockenson and Ian Thomas. Because of Dissly's injury history and Russell Wilson's prowess in the red zone, Olsen may have just as much 2020 upside as those younger guys. But as a 35-year-old who has missed 18 games over the past three seasons, he has considerably more risk.for 48 receptions, 555 yards and 5.1 touchdowns. That makes him a low-end starter, right behind
If you're looking at Olsen's upside, recalling that last Graham season is a good place to start. Graham only caught 57 passes for 520 yards but he scored 10 touchdowns. That's not an outcome that a projection will come anywhere near because of the massive touchdown rate, but it's also not hard to envision if Olsen plays 16 games and the Seahawks open up the offense a little.
Olsen should be healthy to start the season and Wilson is lobbying for more passing this season. That's enough for me to view Olsen as a worthwhile early-season streamer, but not much more.
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