It’s not often Fantasy owners get clarity when there’s a position of confusion, but the Colts did us a favor this week at tight end. Indianapolis decided to commit to Jack Doyle and get rid of Dwayne Allen.
And for that, we all rule.
Doyle signed a three-year, $19 million contract extension Tuesday with the Colts, including $9.5 million guaranteed. On Wednesday, Indianapolis traded Allen and a sixth-round pick to New England for a fourth-round pick.
Allen will now replace Martellus Bennett, who is a free agent, as the No. 2 tight end for the Patriots behind Rob Gronkowski. And Doyle steps into the starting job for the Colts, which is a huge boost for his Fantasy value.
While some Fantasy owners might want to draft Allen, who has more name recognition and is now playing with Tom Brady, you should gravitate toward Doyle, who is a potential breakout candidate. The only way Allen should be better than Doyle if both are healthy is if Gronkowski misses extended time again due to injury.
That could happen since Gronkowski is coming off back surgery last year and was limited to eight games, which allowed Bennett to finish as the No. 7 Fantasy tight end in standard leagues with 55 catches for 701 yards and seven touchdowns on 73 targets. But if Gronkowski is healthy, and reports from New England indicate he will be ready for Week 1, then Allen should be a No. 2 Fantasy tight end at best.
He was the No. 18 Fantasy tight end in standard leagues last year with 35 catches for 406 yards and six touchdowns on 52 targets, and his best year was 2014 when he had 29 catches for 395 yards and eight touchdowns on 50 targets, which put him at No. 13. Allen has also proven to be injury prone, and he missed 15 games in 2013 due to a hip injury and eight games due to various ailments over the past three seasons.
Instead of comparing Allen to Bennett, a better comparison could be Scott Chandler, who was the No. 2 tight end in New England in 2015 behind Gronkowski. Chandler had 23 catches for 259 yards and four touchdowns, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if Allen’s stats are similar to that. Allen is a good blocker and will help the Patriots more than Fantasy owners -- unless, of course, Gronkowski gets hurt.
Meanwhile, the Colts are hoping Doyle can build off his career-best season in 2016 when he had 59 catches for 584 yards and five touchdowns on 75 targets. He was the No. 12 Fantasy tight end in standard leagues, and he continued an Indianapolis trend of playing well when Allen was out.
Allen missed two games in Week 7 and Week 8 with an ankle injury, and Doyle had 11 catches for 114 yards and a touchdown on 13 targets over that span. It was the same narrative for Coby Fleener when he was with the Colts and Allen was out. In 2014, Allen missed four games due to injury, and Fleener had 18 catches for 355 yards and four touchdowns over that span and scored at least 14 Fantasy points in a standard league in three of those outings.
Doyle has the chance to be a No. 1 Fantasy tight end in 2017, and I have him ranked No. 12 after Allen was traded. He’s worth drafting with a mid- to late-round pick in all leagues, and I’d rather have him over Allen in all leagues.
Keep in mind, Andrew Luck loves relying on his tight ends, especially in the red zone. Last year, 12 of Luck’s 31 passing touchdowns went to his tight ends, and it was the same in 2014 (Luck was limited to seven games due to injury in 2015) when he threw 18 of his 40 touchdowns to his tight ends.
Doyle has a chance to rule for Fantasy owners. And Allen could be a Fantasy fool if you think his move to New England is a boost for his value.
