Imagine if you started your Fantasy team in 2020 with Lamar Jackson at quarterback, Joe Mixon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire at running back, Michael Thomas, Julio Jones and Kenny Golladay at wide receiver and Zach Ertz at tight end. You probably would have been thrilled, right? Well, we know that didn't work out so well.
Now, conversely, imagine if I told you that by the end of the season you would have a starting lineup of Jalen Hurts at quarterback, Jeff Wilson and Myles Gaskin at running back, Justin Jefferson, Brandon Aiyuk and Corey Davis at wide receiver and Logan Thomas at tight end, and that lineup would be a potential championship contender. That might have actually happened.
We're looking back at the win percentage data on CBS Sports leagues for 2020. It is based on players rostered in 60 percent or more of leagues on CBS Sports, which came to about 150 players, and shows total wins and not Fantasy titles. Only commissioner leagues were considered with at least eight Fantasy teams or more.
Not all of these players were actually in starting Fantasy lineups. For example, the No. 2 receiver based on win percentage was Houston's Keke Coutee, but he might have been added to many winning rosters after he replaced the suspended Will Fuller. The same could be said for several of the free agent additions picked up later in the year like Hurts, Wilson and Tony Pollard, among others.
In looking at this data, it shows the importance of playing the waiver wire during the season. Of the top 20 running backs listed here, six -- Wilson, Pollard, James Robinson, Gaskin, J.D. McKissic and Mike Davis -- weren't necessarily drafted in the majority of Fantasy leagues in 2020. Hurts and Justin Herbert were two of the top six quarterbacks in win percentage. Some key receiver contributors included Coutee, Jefferson, Aiyuk, Davis and Antonio Brown. And two of the top six tight ends were Thomas and Robert Tonyan.
Those guys, added to quality draft picks, likely led to standout rosters. And that's the key to winning Fantasy titles by the end of the season.
Let's take a look at the win percentage data by position.
Quarterbacks
- Jalen Hurts 0.586
- Josh Allen 0.554
- Kyler Murray 0.553
- Aaron Rodgers 0.545
- Russell Wilson 0.537
- Justin Herbert 0.531
- Patrick Mahomes 0.524
- Ryan Tannehill 0.518
- Deshaun Watson 0.517
- Baker Mayfield 0.498
- Kirk Cousins 0.498
- Tom Brady 0.493
- Philip Rivers 0.492
- Drew Brees 0.491
- Ben Roethlisberger 0.488
- Taysom Hill 0.482
- Jared Goff 0.476
- Derek Carr 0.475
- Matthew Stafford 0.471
- Lamar Jackson 0.457
- Matt Ryan 0.457
- Cam Newton 0.449
There were eight quarterbacks who averaged more than 25.0 Fantasy points per game in 2020 with a minimum of at least six starts, and seven of them -- Allen, Murray, Rodgers, Wilson, Herbert, Mahomes and Watson -- had a winning record this season. Only Brady was below .500, but that was probably more about the Fantasy roster he was on compared to his performance.
The biggest disappointments on this list were Jackson, Brees and Ryan since all three were drafted as starting Fantasy options but underperformed, including Brees missing time due to injury. While Jackson finished the season strong, averaging 30.6 Fantasy points per game in his final five outings, he started the year averaging just 20.1 points per game in his first 10 contests.
By comparison, Jackson was the No. 1 quarterback in win percentage in 2019 at 0.608. Hopefully, he gets back to that level again in 2021.
Running backs
- Dalvin Cook 0.596
- Jeff Wilson 0.587
- Alvin Kamara 0.583
- Derrick Henry 0.569
- Tony Pollard 0.557
- James Robinson 0.544
- Aaron Jones 0.538
- David Montgomery 0.532
- Antonio Gibson 0.528
- Myles Gaskin 0.524
- Jonathan Taylor 0.524
- Nick Chubb 0.523
- Chris Carson 0.515
- Kareem Hunt 0.513
- Josh Jacobs 0.511
- J.D. McKissic 0.511
- D'Andre Swift 0.511
- David Johnson 0.507
- J.K. Dobbins 0.505
- Mike Davis 0.502
- Jamaal Williams 0.501
- Wayne Gallman 0.499
- Cam Akers 0.499
- Ronald Jones 0.498
- Latavius Murray 0.497
- Melvin Gordon 0.494
- Kenyan Drake 0.493
- Chase Edmonds 0.491
- Miles Sanders 0.490
- Ezekiel Elliott 0.490
- Austin Ekeler 0.489
- Leonard Fournette 0.489
- Christian McCaffrey 0.489
- Nyheim Hines 0.488
- Giovani Bernard 0.487
- James Conner 0.487
- Gus Edwards 0.487
- Le'Veon Bell 0.485
- Darrell Henderson 0.483
- Raheem Mostert 0.480
- Zack Moss 0.479
- Todd Gurley 0.478
- Damien Harris 0.478
- Devin Singletary 0.477
- Joe Mixon 0.467
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire 0.463
- Phillip Lindsay 0.454
- James White 0.450
- Duke Johnson 0.446
If you hit on an early-round running back, your Fantasy team was probably successful. That means you drafted guys like Cook, Kamara, Henry, Aaron Jones, Chubb, Carson and Jacobs.
However, if you ended up with Sanders, Elliott, Ekeler, McCaffrey, Conner, Gurley, Mixon or Edwards-Helaire, it was probably a long season for you. Most of these players missed time due to injury or, like Elliott, were impacted by significant injuries to their NFL team. And that doesn't include Saquon Barkley (ACL), who was a top-three overall pick in most leagues, but was lost for the season in Week 2.
Aside from Edwards-Helaire, the rookie class of 2020 ended up being highly successful. Robinson was the surprise of the group, but Gibson, Taylor, Swift and Dobbins all proved to help Fantasy managers in a positive way this season. The hope is those guys will only improve in 2021.
Wide receivers
- Davante Adams 0.580
- Keke Coutee 0.563
- Tyreek Hill 0.563
- DK Metcalf 0.547
- Stefon Diggs 0.547
- Calvin Ridley 0.545
- Adam Thielen 0.532
- DeAndre Hopkins 0.531
- A.J. Brown 0.529
- Allen Robinson 0.526
- Justin Jefferson 0.526
- Keenan Allen 0.521
- Brandon Aiyuk 0.520
- Robert Woods 0.513
- Corey Davis 0.512
- Diontae Johnson 0.512
- Terry McLaurin 0.511
- T.Y. Hilton 0.510
- Antonio Brown 0.509
- Mike Evans 0.509
- Tyler Lockett 0.507
- D.J. Moore 0.506
- Brandin Cooks 0.504
- Amari Cooper 0.503
- Tim Patrick 0.499
- Tee Higgins 0.499
- Nelson Agholor 0.499
- Robby Anderson 0.497
- Chris Godwin 0.496
- Curtis Samuel 0.496
- Cole Beasley 0.496
- Allen Lazard 0.495
- CeeDee Lamb 0.495
- Emmanuel Sanders 0.492
- Marvin Jones 0.492
- Jamison Crowder 0.490
- Tyler Boyd 0.487
- Chase Claypool 0.484
- Cooper Kupp 0.483
- JuJu Smith-Schuster 0.482
- DeVante Parker 0.481
- D.J. Chark 0.479
- Christian Kirk 0.477
- Jarvis Landry 0.476
- Marquise Brown 0.474
- Julio Jones 0.472
- Mike Williams 0.471
- Jerry Jeudy 0.470
- Sammy Watkins 0.470
- Kenny Golladay 0.465
- Darius Slayton 0.457
- Michael Thomas 0.425
If you remove Coutee from the top of the list then a lot of the receivers that we expected to play well in 2020 actually delivered since Adams, Hill, Metcalf, Diggs, Ridley, Thielen, Hopkins, A.J. Brown and Robinson were all drafted in the first five rounds in the majority of leagues. We like it when things work out that way.
The receivers drafted early who struggled were mostly due to injury, including Thomas, Julio Jones and Golladay. The hope would be you replaced those guys in your starting lineup with receivers like Jefferson, Aiyuk and Davis, who ended up being excellent Fantasy options in 2020.
It was interesting to see how certain receivers on the same team finished based on win percentage. For example, Antonio Brown was better than Evans and Godwin in Tampa Bay. In Pittsburgh, the order was Diontae Johnson, Claypool and then Smith-Schuster. And for the Rams, Woods was much better than Kupp.
Some guys that I expect to rebound in 2021 and have a positive win percentage include Thomas, Jones and Golladay when healthy, but I'm also excited about young receivers like Higgins, Lamb, Claypool and Jeudy. All of them have breakout potential next season. I'm also excited about Chark with Trevor Lawrence expected to be the quarterback in Jacksonville, and I expect more from Marquise Brown in his third year in the NFL in 2021.
Tight ends
- Travis Kelce 0.575
- Darren Waller 0.549
- George Kittle 0.544
- Logan Thomas 0.531
- Mark Andrews 0.517
- Robert Tonyan 0.517
- T.J. Hockenson 0.513
- Dallas Goedert 0.512
- Noah Fant 0.497
- Mike Gesicki 0.490
- Jonnu Smith 0.490
- Rob Gronkowski 0.484
- Jared Cook 0.481
- Eric Ebron 0.478
- Hunter Henry 0.477
- Evan Engram 0.477
- Hayden Hurst 0.474
- Zach Ertz 0.464
I wouldn't have been surprised if Kelce was the No. 1 overall player on this list given how successful he was in 2020. He averaged 20.3 PPR points per game, which would have made him the No. 5 overall non-quarterback of players with a minimum of at least five starts, trailing only Adams (25.1 points), Kamara (24.3), Cook (23.4) and Hill (21.1). Kelce is an easy choice as a first-round pick in 2021.
It's no surprise that Waller was the No. 2 tight end based on his dominant campaign in 2020 (16.9 PPR points per game), but Kittle at No. 3 was a little shocking since he missed eight games due to injury. However, what likely happened was that he was added to several successful Fantasy teams off the waiver wire late in the year, which helped his win percentage.
Thomas and Tonyan proved to be excellent waiver wire options during the season, and both should be considered low-end starters heading into 2021. I'm also hopeful for better performances next season from guys like Fant, Henry, Hurst and Ertz, who had sub-.500 win percentages in 2020. Henry and Ertz are free agents, so where they play in 2021 will ultimately determine their Fantasy value.
