There was no mystery who would be the No. 1 pick in the NFL daft, we've all known it would be Joe Burrow for some time. But now that it's official, it's time to dive into exactly what we should expect from the rookie quarterback and the Bengals offense.

Burrow was amazing in his final year in college, throwing for more than 5,671 yards and 60 touchdowns. He also ran for 368 yards and five scores, showing that his mobility is a strength. If you're looking for a comp based on his last year of college production, you won't find one, because no quarterback ever had a senior season as good as Burrow's. But we can at least look at past rookie quarterbacks for a guide.

In the past 20 years, 34 quarterbacks have been drafted with a top-10 pick. Of those, 26 started at least half of the season. The median production has been 215 passing yards per game, a 3.4% touchdown rate and a quarterback rating of 76.5. That's definitively below average. If you want to project Burrow as an 80th percentile outcome (despite the limited offseason) you would expect 235 passing yards per game and a touchdown rate just north of four percent. I'm fine with projecting him even higher (and do below) but it's good to put that in perspective.

As for Fantasy production, Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott, Robert Griffin III and Cam Newton are the only rookie quarterbacks in the past 20 years to deliver top-10 production in their rookie year. The common trait they all share was that they generated at least 500 yards or six touchdowns (or both) on the ground. While Burrow is plenty athletic, you shouldn't expect anything close to that from him.

A component with "marker-draft-tracker-fantasy-football" slug not found to render the marker. (Slug not found)

What does this all add up to? My initial projection for Burrow puts him right in front of Drew Lock and just inside my top-20 quarterbacks. Of course, if he actually hits those numbers he'll finish closer to 15th than 20th because a number of quarterbacks won't play 16 games. Burrow should be drafted as a No. 2 quarterback with the idea that he may start slow but will have weekly upside due to his weapons.

As for those weapons, if Green is a full participant at training camp (assuming the Bengals have a full training camp) then he'll be viewed as a mid-range No. 2 wide receiver and Boyd will be a high-end No. 3. As of right now I'm projecting Green as more of a borderline No. 2. They will both have upside from there but Green has considerable downside at his age and injury history as well. Ross remains nothing more than an end of draft upside pick that probably needs an injury (and his own health) to have Fantasy relevance. Joe Mixon is the only other Fantasy relevant Bengal we haven't talked about. He could certainly be helped if Burrow makes the offense better, but there's also a looming contract dispute to be concerned about. Mixon remains a No. 2 running back with upside.

Here are my full Bengals projections as of 4/24: