Fantasy Football Rankings, Busts 2018: Model that beat experts warns about Jordy Nelson and Matthew Stafford

Last season, Derek Carr was plucked off fantasy football draft boards as a top-10 quarterback. Carr was coming off an impressive 2016 campaign that included almost 4,000 passing yards and 28 touchdowns, and he was high on many experts' fantasy football rankings last year. Instead of taking the next step in 2017, however, the Raiders quarterback face-planted. He failed to top 3,500 yards passing and threw a career-high 13 interceptions. Anybody who spent a high pick on him was in for a long season.

The team at SportsLine saw Carr's setback coming. Their model, which was used to power Fantasy Football projections at the three largest sites, had Carr finishing well outside the top 10 of its fantasy football rankings. He ended the season as the 19th-ranked QB.

Before you draft this year, you need to check out SportsLine's Fantasy Football cheat sheets. When it came to ranking players last season, the model beat human experts when there were big differences in ranking. And the model was the closest to the hole overall, meaning it best pinpointed where every player would finish each week. That could literally be the difference between winning your league or going home empty-handed.

Plus, their cheat sheets are available for every major Fantasy Football site, so no matter where you play, you can use them. And they're updated every four hours, so any time news breaks, you'll have the latest 2018 fantasy football rankings at your fingertips. As soon as a player is suspended or injured, SportsLine immediately updates its cheat sheets.

One bust SportsLine is projecting this season: Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford. He put up huge numbers last year, including almost 4,500 yards passing and 29 touchdowns. But while Detroit focused on improving its offensive line and running back this offseason, Stafford lost a big red-zone target in tight end Eric Ebron. The model is projecting Stafford won't be able to replicate his big numbers.

SportsLine's cheat sheets have Stafford behind Kirk Cousins (27 TDs last year), Alex Smith (26) and even Andrew Luck, who hasn't started all 16 games in a season since 2014. Stafford is one QB you'll want to steer completely clear of.

At receiver, steer clear of new Raiders wideout Jordy Nelson. The 11-year veteran finds himself in a new offense after being released from Green Bay. Nelson has eclipsed 1,200 yards receiving in three of his last four seasons. He has also scored at least 13 touchdowns in two of his last three seasons.

However, SportsLine's 2018 fantasy football cheat sheets have Nelson ranked lower than Tyrell Williams (four touchdowns last season), Mike Wallace (four) and rookie Calvin Ridley. Nelson is a bust you'll want to completely avoid in the early rounds of your draft.

At running back, steer clear of Saints RB Mark Ingram, who has scored 22 total touchdowns over the past two seasons and posted back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons in New Orleans. However, Ingram will miss the first four games of the 2018 season after violating the NFL's PED policy.

Plus, the emergence of Alvin Kamara will diminish Ingram's role in the Saints' explosive offense. SportsLine's model has Ingram lower than rookie Royce Freeman, Jay Ajayi (two total touchdowns last season) and James White (three) in its rankings. Avoid Ingram and let your friends draft one of the biggest Fantasy Football busts.

SportsLine's cheat sheets are also calling for a big-name running back to bust in a major way. Rather than targeting him, their projections call for Kenyan Drake, Dion Lewis and Isaiah Crowell to have similar production.

So what busts should you avoid in your Fantasy Football draft? And what big-name running back could ruin your season? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy Football cheat sheets from the model that called Derek Carr's face-plant last season and find out.

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