Fantasy Football Rankings Week 12: Model that beat experts says start Todd Gurley, sit Dak Prescott

Raiders quarterback Derek Carr has been strong all season, throwing for 2,494 yards and 15 touchdowns. Running back Josh Jacobs is a Rookie of the Year candidate, rushing for 923 yards and seven touchdowns. Darren Waller is second among NFL tight ends in receiving yards, piling up 666 on 56 receptions. But traveling cross-country to New York, which Raiders should be high up in your Week 12 Fantasy football rankings? Should the Jets be near the bottom of your Fantasy football defense rankings? And which Fantasy football picks should you avoid at all costs? Before you lock in your lineups, you'll want to view SportsLine's latest Week 12 Fantasy football rankings. The team at SportsLine has a history of helping owners come out on the winning end of trades, while also helping make those tricky start or sit decisions.

When it comes to ranking players, their model beat human experts in Fantasy football last season when there were big differences in ranking. And the model was closest to the hole overall, meaning it best pinpointed where every player would finish each week. Over the course of a season, that could literally be the difference between winning your league or going home empty-handed.

Last week, the model was extremely high on Bills quarterback Josh Allen, saying he'd finish as a top-six player at his position despite being started in less than 70 percent of leagues. The result: Allen threw for 256 yards and three touchdowns, while also adding 56 rushing yards and another score against the Dolphins. Anybody who had him in their lineup was well on their way to a huge week.

Now the model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has revealed its Fantasy football rankings for Week 12 of the NFL season. One player the model loves this week: Rams running back Todd Gurley.

After seemingly being held back for much of the season, Gurley netted a season-high 28 touches for 133 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown last week against the Bears. His 97 yards rushing matched his season-best, while he added 36 yards receiving.

Gurley remains a potent force for the Rams, and coach Sean McVay could be fully ready to unleash his best offensive weapon. At 6-4, the Rams are facing a must-win game on Monday Night Football against the red-hot Baltimore Ravens in order to stay alive in the NFL playoff picture. SportsLine projects Gurley to be the No. 7 running back in Week 12, even though he's being started in just over 80 percent of CBS Sports leagues.

And a massive shocker: Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott, who's thrown for over 3,200 yards and 21 touchdowns this season, stumbles big-time and barely cracks the top 20.

Prescott is coming off one of his best performances of the season, a game in which he completed 29-of-46 pass attempts for 444 yards and three touchdowns. Over his last three outings, Prescott has put up impressive numbers. During that span, the fourth-year signal caller has thrown for 1,098 yards, nine touchdowns and two interceptions. 

However, two of those games came against the Giants and Lions, two teams that rank near the bottom in total defense. Now, Prescott and the Cowboys visit a Patriots defense that has given up just four passing touchdowns all season. He's a player to consider putting on the bench in Week 12 and is squarely out of the QB1 conversation.

The model is also calling for a surprising quarterback you aren't even thinking about to finish in the top 10 of its Fantasy football rankings. This pick could be the difference between winning big and going home with nothing. 

So who should you sit and start this week? And which surprising quarterback could lead you to victory? Visit SportsLine now to get Week 12 Fantasy football rankings for every position, plus see which QB is going to come out of nowhere to crack the top 10, all from the model that out-performed experts big time last season.

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