Fantasy Football Rankings, Week 14: Model that beat experts says start Sam Darnold, sit Patrick Mahomes

Although he's struggled at times as a real-life NFL quarterback, Jameis Winston has put together a stellar Fantasy season for the Buccaneers. The fifth-year pro from Florida State is second in the NFL with 3,659 passing yards and tied for sixth with 22 touchdowns even though the Buccaneers are just 5-7 and face an uphill climb to be part of the NFL playoff picture. This late in the season, should Winston be perched atop your Fantasy football rankings? Winston and Tampa Bay get the 6-6 Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, a team that could be without defensive back Kenny Moore (out, ankle) and safety Malik Hooker (questionable, knee). Which Bucs receiver will benefit: Mike Evans or Chris Godwin? And which Fantasy football picks can you make with confidence? See the latest Fantasy football rankings for Week 14 from the proven model at SportsLine before locking in any lineups.

When it comes to ranking players, their model beat human experts in Fantasy football last season when there were big differences in ranking. And the model was closest to the hole overall, meaning it best pinpointed where every player would finish each week. Over the course of a season, that could literally be the difference between winning your league or going home empty-handed.

Last week, the model was extremely high on Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton, saying he'd finish as a top-10 player at his position despite being started in just 65 percent of leagues. The result: Sutton hauled in four passes for 74 yards and two touchdowns against the Chargers. Anybody who had him in their lineup was well on their way to a huge week.

Now the model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has revealed its Week 14 Fantasy football rankings. One player the model loves this week: Jets quarterback Sam Darnold.

The second-year pro from Southern Cal has thrown for 847 yards and six touchdowns against just one interception the last three games. His high point was in Nov. 17 against the Redskins, when he went off for 293 yards and four touchdowns. After missing three games earlier this season, Darnold has piled up 2,154 yards and 13 touchdowns. Darnold and the Jets get the 3-9 Miami Dolphins this week, a team ranked 29th against quarterbacks this season and 22nd in passing yards allowed per game (256.2). SportsLine projects Darnold to be a top-10 quarterback in Week 14, even though he's being started in less than 50 percent of CBS Sports Fantasy football leagues.

And a massive shocker: Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who's thrown for over 2,900 yards and 20 touchdowns this season, stumbles big-time and barely cracks the top 25. He's a player to consider putting on the bench.

Mahomes is coming off a productive performance against the Raiders, a game in which he ran and threw for a touchdown. Plus, he's been sensational when Kansas City plays on the road this season, throwing for 1,840 yards, 12 touchdowns and just one interception. 

However, Mahomes has been unable to find consistency in the Chiefs' offense. In fact, Mahomes has been held under 185 yards passing in three of his last four games. He's also failed to throw more than one touchdown pass in three of his last four outings. Now, Mahomes and the Chiefs will face a Patriots defense that's giving up just 163.5 passing yards per game. He's a player to consider putting on the bench in Week 14 and is squarely out of the QB1 conversation.

The model is also calling for a surprising quarterback you aren't even thinking about to finish in the top 10 of its Fantasy football rankings. This pick could be the difference between winning big and going home with nothing.

So who should you sit and start this week? And which surprising quarterback could lead you to victory? Visit SportsLine now to get Week 14 Fantasy football rankings for every position, plus see which QB is going to come out of nowhere to crack the top 10, all from the model that out-performed experts big time last season.

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