Fantasy Football: RBs return and 8 things to know about Week 10
There are a host of running backs trying to come back from injury and a pair of elite matchups in Week 10. Heath Cummings discusses that and more.
Week 10 Rankings: Standard | PPR
There are four teams on bye this week, but after the past two weeks that doesn't seem bad at all. It also helps that we have a handful of running backs getting close to returning and a pair of games that should have playoff atmospheres.
That doesn't mean all the games are good. We've got some #badfootball on tap, even with the Browns getting their game out of the way Thursday night. We'll talk about all of this and more right after Week 10 in a tweet:
Miss Week 10 in a tweet? Get it all right here: https://t.co/xfTxef6ZAB
— Heath Cummings (@heathcummingssr) November 10, 2016
Is Big Ben actually back now?
Yeah, Ben Roethlisbeger returned in Week 9, but he wasn't really himself. Whether that changes in Week 10 has been a major source of debate here in our offices. Jamey has him as his start of the week and that's understandable against a banged up Cowboys secondary -- if Roethlisberger is healthy. The Steelers' quarterback has traditionally been much better at home and the Cowboys secondary is missing two starters.
Whether the Cowboys are definitively a good matchup is another question. They've been pretty outstanding recently, but they've faced mostly bad quarterbacks for the last month (outside of Aaron Rodgers). Earlier in the year they gave up 20+ Fantasy points to Eli Manning, Kirk Cousins and Brian Hoyer.
This is one of the best games of the weekend, and the game flow may be the final determining factor. The Cowboys want to play very slow and run the ball all day. If Pittsburgh can slow Elliott down and get off the field, I like Roethlisberger's chances much better.
The Broncos defense in the Superdome
This is supposed to be a matchup of one of the best defenses in the league against one of the best offenses. It still might be, but we've definitely seen some chinks in the armor of the Broncos run defense after the way Melvin Gordon and Latavius Murray have gashed them the past two weeks.
I'm not totally certain that makes Mark Ingram and Tim Hightower both must-starts. I have my doubts that Denver's run D is as bad as it has looked and even bigger doubts that this type of committee can result in steady Fantasy production. What may actually determine their value is the other side of the ball.
The Saints don't stop anyone, but Trevor Siemian and Devontae Booker have been far from impressive lately. I have no doubt the Saints want to run the ball and keep this defense off the field, but if Siemian and or Booker play well and the Saints fall down multiple scores, we could easily see both Saints backs bust.
Play all the Cardinals and these other high-flying offenses
Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers: Normally we pick games where we like both teams, but this game should be a good old-fashioned blowout. Most of the Cardinals are obvious plays, but their receivers after Larry Fitzgerald are a little bit questionable. I view John Brown as a solid No. 3 receiver while J.J. Nelson is flexish. I would have to see something from Michael Floyd before I seriously consider him again.
Green Bay Packers @ Tennessee Titans: Now we get to the shootout. All four Packers wide receivers are pretty much must-starts, but I am interested in how much the return of James Starks would impact Ty Montgomery's value. Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb are still my favorite options. You probably knew you were starting the Packers but you shouldn't sleep on the Titans passing game either. Marcus Mariota is a solid top ten QB. I like Kendall Wright slightly more than Rishard Matthews but both are No. 3 receivers.
Atlanta Falcons @ Philadelphia Eagles: This game is a battle of wills. The Eagles would like to start running the ball and playing more low-scoring games. Maybe next week. Jordan Matthews, Darren Sproles and Zach Ertz are all pretty close to must-starts, and Mohamed Sanu is a flex possibility. If you're looking for a really deep sleeper, I like Dorial Green-Beckham.
The most surprising RBs of 2016 face off
We've spent enough time documenting the various ways we were wrong about Melvin Gordon. He was a complete surprise. But he still might not be the biggest surprise running back in 2016.
In Jay Ajayi's past three games, he has run for 529 yards and four touchdowns. He's done that against the Jets, Bills and Steelers. Those are not bad run defenses. It really seems like the Dolphins offensive line is matchup proof, and the confidence Ajayi is running with is only rivaled by Gordon's.
Neither of these backs get what we'd call a tough matchup in Week 10, but they're interesting nonetheless. I like Gordon more because the Chargers are slightly better. I'm really curious if both teams just pound the rock or if one team can build a lead and force the other to air it out. The Chargers can succeed either way, I'm not sure we can say the same about the Dolphins.
The bad and the ugly
Sure, less teams on the byes equals more football. It's not all good football though. Take a look.

Los Angeles Rams @ New York Jets: I absolutely love both of these defenses, especially if you can find one on the waiver wire as a streamer. If you get a choice between them, I'd go with the Jets, if only because they're at home. There are very few players I'd feel good about starting, but you're going to start both RBs and Brandon Marshall most likely. If you're looking for a sleeper I'd say Kenny Britt. Britt is having his most consistent season and the Jets pass defense is awful
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars: Brock Osweiler and Blake Bortles aren't the worst quarterbacks in the league, but they might be the most frustrating because of what they're doing to the value of their star receivers. Allen Robinson got back on track last week and I like him more than DeAndre Hopkins in this one. I'll start Chris Ivory as a No. 2 RB against a pretty poor Texans run defense. C.J. Fiedorowicz is my favorite tight end in this game.
Minnesota Vikings @ Washington Redskins: These aren't actually bad teams, but it's probably going to be the ugliest game from a Fantasy Football perspective. The one consistent weakness in the Vikings pass defense has been over the middle, so I'm not downgrading Jamison Crowder or Jordan Reed too much. I want no part of either team's run game.
Running backs returning?
There are several running backs who are or could be returning.
Spencer Ware, Chiefs: I would expect the moment Ware is ready he's the lead back and gets all the touches he can handle. Charcandrick West would be nothing more than a change-of-pace back and a handcuff in Fantasy. Ware is a borderline No. 1 RB down the stretch because his schedule isn't great, especially this week against the Panthers.
Doug Martin, Buccaneers: Martin practiced Wednesday and Thursday, but the team could be cautious since he's already suffered one setback. When he's 100 percent, he's a must-start No. 1 back. This team made Jacquizz Rodgers look outstanding, and Martin is far more talented. If he played this week against the Bears, he'd be a solid No. 2 due to workload and re-injury concerns.
James Starks, Packers: It sounds like Starks is on pace to return. If he does, my interest is less in him and more in what he does to Ty Montgomery's value. Mike McCarthy called Montgomery a three down back this week, but I wonder if that applies with a healthy Starks.
Carlos Hyde, 49ers: I'm not very optimistic of Hyde playing or having much of an impact if he does. The 49ers are going to get steamrolled, so Chip Kelly may as well let him rest. I don't want to start DuJuan Harris as anything more than a desperation flex if Hyde sits again.
Dion Lewis, Patriots: Lewis could return in Week 10 or 11 and his return is really interesting. Many have speculated he'll take James White's role immediately. There is no chance I'd start Lewis in his first game back, but at the very least you should make sure he's not available on the waiver wire in anticipation of his return.
Super Bowl XLIX rematch
The Seahawks seem to have fixed their offense just in time for a Sunday night matchup with the New England Patriots. If Vegas is right, they're going to need it.
The Patriots are implied to score four touchdowns and have the second highest implied total in the league. Figuring out how they're going to do it is a bit of a challenge. Obviously Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski will play huge roles, but who else? If it's anything like the Super Bowl, Brady will probably spread it around. Julian Edelman posted 9-109-1 in that game, Shane Vereen caught 11 passes, while Gronk, Danny Amendola and Brandon LaFell all caught touchdown passes.
The one guy who struggled was LeGarrette Blount, and I wouldn't be surprised if that repeats itself. Blount is still a top-25 back but I'd rather start someone like Chris Ivory or Darren Sproles.
Prime-time Andy Dalton or uncommon opponent Andy Dalton?
If you're looking for updated Common/Uncommon numbers for Andy Dalton, here you go. pic.twitter.com/CUM1WbGXJ4
— Joe Goodberry (@JoeGoodberry) October 20, 2016
Obviously this isn't completely up to date, but you get the picture. As a reminder an "uncommon" opponent would be one Dalton hasn't seen in the past year, and the Giants would fit the bill. It's quite the contrast to Dalton's performance at night where he has a 78.1 QB Rating and a 17-12 TD/INT ratio in 14 games. His four career Monday games have been even worse.
To be completely clear, I do not buy the narrative that Dalton wilts at night. He was good in his lone night game this year and better last year as well. He faces a touch matchup and he's a borderline No. 1. I'd rather start him than Eli Manning in the same game.
















