A big part of building projections for 2020 is factoring in regression of what happened in 2019. Generally speaking, outliers are going to regress. The question is to what extent the regression happens. That's a huge question for Aaron Jones, both in 2020 and beyond.
In 2019 Jones scored 19 touchdowns on 285 touches. That's an absurd rate (once every 15 touches) that the entire industry agrees will regress in 2020. That fact has caused some to call him a sell high in Dynasty. I probably would have agreed before going through the projections and Dynasty trade chart process. But the touchdowns weren't exactly a new thing.
In 2017, Jones scored four times on 90 touches, or once every 22 touches. In 2018, the rate was once every 17.6 touches. My initial 16-game projection has Jones at 289 touches in 2020. A score every 21 touches puts him just over 13 total touchdowns. That seems like an unfair projection and injuries could certainly get in the way, but it's also a 30% reduction from last year in total touchdowns and a rate worse than his career rate before last year.
Jones isn't just a touchdown scorer. He's averaged five yards per carry for his career. If you get 240 carries at anything close to five yards a pop, you're probably going to score a lot of touchdowns. In fact, since 2000, 45 backs have averaged at least 4.6 YPC on at least 240 carries, and 69% of them had at least 10 rushing touchdowns.
As long as Jones stays healthy and on the same team as Aaron Rodgers, you should expect double-digit touchdowns and a borderline top-five performance.
| Player | January | February | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 11 | ||
| 53 | 31 | ||
| 43 | 36 | ||
| 9 | 15 | ||
| 14 | 20 | ||
| 13 | 25 | ||
| 30 | 39 |
Here are my updated Running Back Dynasty Rankings along with their 2020 projected Fantasy points. Expect the next update after free agency.
