It's go time for the 2023 season and Fantasy managers have mostly healthy running back options.
Jamey Eisenberg has his Start and Sit calls for RB here. His waiver and late-round sleepers column also can direct you to the best options that may be available in your leagues. And don't forget to check out Heath Cummings' running back preview for more help with matchup notes, Week 1 numbers to know and more. Plus SportsLine data analysis shows huge Week 1 upside for one particular NFC East team.
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START 'EM & SIT 'EM
Running Backs
RBs to Start
Projections powered by
Sportsline
This should be a great game for Jahmyr Gibbs because the Chiefs are annually horrible at stopping pass-catching running backs, and he's a must-start option in Week 1, especially in PPR. But Montgomery should be considered a must-start option as well with standout Kansas City defensive lineman Chris Jones unlikely to play because of his holdout. In what should be a high-scoring affair with a projected over-under of 52.5, look for Montgomery to finish as a top-15 running back in all leagues.
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Robinson and Antonio Gibson are both worth starting this week, but Robinson is the preferred choice in all leagues. I almost made him the Start of the Week. This game has the chance to be a Commanders' blowout, and Robinson should get plenty of carries against a bad defense. Last year, Arizona was No. 3 in most PPR points allowed to opposing running backs, and the Cardinals might be worse in 2023. Robinson closed last season as the bellcow in Washington with at least 18 carries in four of his final five outings, and he should improve this season with Eric Bieniemy now calling plays for the Commanders.
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White should be looking at a hefty workload in Week 1 at Minnesota as he starts his sophomore campaign as the lead running back in Tampa Bay. And when he got a lot of work as a rookie he was successful. There were five games in 2022 when White had at least 15 total touches, and he averaged 13.6 PPR points per game over that span. Minnesota has a new-look defense this season under coordinator Brian Flores, but last year the Vikings struggled with pass-catching running backs like White. I like White as a must-start running back in PPR and 0.5-PPR leagues and a flex in non-PPR this week.
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While he's healthy and has no issues with his surgically-repaired knee, you should plan on starting Williams when he has a plus matchup. And that's the case in Week 1 against the Raiders. We'll see if Las Vegas is better at stopping the run in 2023, but this group was terrible last year. The Raiders were one of four teams to allow at least 100 receptions to running backs and five teams to allow at least 20 total touchdowns to the position. Williams had a strong training camp and preseason by all accounts, and this game has probably been circled on his calendar since he was injured against the Raiders in Week 4 last year. Samaje Perine is also worth using as a sleeper in PPR.
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We'll see what the Dolphins do with the running backs behind Mostert this week, but this is a thin group now that Jeff Wilson (abdomen) is on injured reserve. You also have De'Von Achane (shoulder) and Salvon Ahmed (neck) at less than 100 percent. Mostert should dominate touches, and that makes him a No. 2 running back in all leagues. Last year, Mostert had seven games with at least 15 total touches, and he averaged 14.8 PPR points per game in those outings. He struggled at the Chargers in Week 14 with 11 carries for 37 yards and one catch for 7 yards, but Wilson was also sharing touches in that matchup. As the lead rusher this week, Mostert has plenty of upside in this potential shootout.
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Sleepers (Start/Sit)
Projections powered by
Sportsline
Dillon is worth using as a flex option this week behind Aaron Jones, who is a must-start running back in all leagues. Dillon had one of his best games of the season in Week 13 at Chicago last year with 18 carries for 93 yards and a touchdown and three catches for 26 yards on three targets. It's doubtful he'll replicate those stats, but he could have an expanded role with Green Bay a little banged up at receiver with Romeo Doubs (hamstring) hurt. The Bears were also No. 2 in PPR points allowed to opposing running backs last year, and we'll see just how much Chicago's run defense has improved in 2023.
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We'll see how the Bears use their running back rotation this week with Herbert, Roschon Johnson and D'Onta Foreman, but Herbert should be the starter in a plus matchup. And when he's gotten work in his career he's been successful. In eight career games with at least 12 carries, he's had at least 10 PPR points six times and 15-plus PPR points five times. One of those was against the Packers in 2021 when he had 19 carries for 97 yards and a touchdown and two catches for 15 yards on three targets. Consider Herbert a flex option in all formats in Week 1.
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We likely won't know the status for Travis Kelce (knee) until Thursday, but if he's out or limited against Detroit then McKinnon should have an increased role in the passing game. If Kelce doesn't play then McKinnon is a strong flex option in PPR. Last year, McKinnon had six games with at least six targets, and he averaged 19.5 PPR points per game in those outings. He was aided by six total touchdowns over that span, but only one time did he fail to score at least 10.4 PPR points when he was heavily involved in the passing game.
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I'm expecting the Jaguars to be playing with a lead this week against the Colts, which should give Jacksonville the opportunity to use Bigsby in tandem with Travis Etienne. We saw in the preseason just how much the Jaguars like Bigsby, and he rewarded them by averaging 5.7 yards per carry in three games. Etienne remains a must-start running back in all leagues, but Bigsby could be a sneaky flex option in deeper formats.
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With Kenneth Walker III back from the groin injury he suffered in training camp, he should be the lead running back for the Seahawks this week. But Seattle might opt to ease Walker back into action and lean more on Charbonnet, who had some positive moments in the preseason. I'm curious to see how this backfield split will work in Week 1 and all season, but I'd consider using Charbonnet as a flex option in deeper leagues. Seattle should be playing with a lead in this matchup, and there should be plenty of carries for Walker and Charbonnet to have success.
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RBs to Sit
Projections powered by
Sportsline
I expect Cook to be the lead running back in Buffalo this season, but given the matchup, I would like to see what the backfield split looks like in Week 1 at the Jets before starting Cook in all leagues. At best, he should be used as a flex, with his value slightly higher in PPR. Damien Harris could play a prominent role, especially at the goal line, and we know Josh Allen remains a factor there is well. Since the Jets defense is dominant up front, Cook might find running lanes hard to come by, and we'll see how much he's used in the passing game this week. The Jets also come into this game having not allowed a running back to score a touchdown in five games in a row.
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Pacheco might be eased into action this week after dealing with shoulder and hand injuries for much of the offseason. While he played a few snaps in the preseason finale against Cleveland, the Chiefs could still opt to lean on McKinnon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire, especially with McKinnon in the passing game. And we know that if Pacheco doesn't score a touchdown then his Fantasy production could be minimal. The Lions also have a much-improved run defense this season, and the Chiefs offense might not be as explosive if Kelce doesn't play.
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I wouldn't be surprised if Swift has a good game and is the lead running back for the Eagles. I also wouldn't be surprised if we see a consistent rotation for Swift, Rashaad Penny and Kenneth Gainwell, which leads to minimal production for all of them this week unless one scores a touchdown. This is also a difficult matchup against a typically stout New England run defense, and the Patriots led the NFL last season with just five total touchdowns allowed to running backs. Swift is worth using as a flex option at best this week, but hopefully we get a better indication of his role compared to Penny and Gainwell moving forward.
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I'd be cautious about using Hall or Dalvin Cook in Week 1, especially after what Jets coach Robert Saleh said earlier this week about his running back rotation. "I don't know if I want to call it a snap count, but we are gonna be smart with them," Saleh said. "We'll continue to evaluate and build up what we think Monday needs to be, but it's not that we're putting a snap count on it. It's just they're two really good football players -- Michael Carter's a really good football player -- and just trying to find a way to feature all of them." It would be great if Hall returned from last year's torn ACL with a big game, but Cook and Carter could cap his touches. And Cook is also coming back from offseason shoulder surgery. Oh, and the Bills run defense is also tough, further complicating matters. I would only use Hall as a flex option this week.
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We'll see what the Colts do with their running back rotation this week with Jackson and Evan Hull, but neither are safe starting options, even in deep leagues. Anthony Richardson should do most of the work on the ground, and Jackson and Hull will likely need to score a touchdown to have a productive Fantasy outing. I would lean toward Jackson over Hull as a flex option this week if you're stuck, but this isn't a great running back situation until Jonathan Taylor (ankle) returns, if at all, in Week 5 following his stint on the PUP list.
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Bust Alert (Start/Sit)
Projections powered by
Sportsline
A lot of Fantasy managers want the Steelers to replace Harris with Jaylen Warren because the latter is more explosive, but that's not likely to happen barring an injury, at least according to most people in Pittsburgh. We'll see what happens as the season goes on, but I would be cautious about starting Harris this week in the majority of leagues. I prefer him as more of a flex option given the matchup with the 49ers. San Francisco is brutal against the run, and last year the 49ers were No. 1 in fewest Fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs. If Harris doesn't find the end zone this week then he could have a miserable stat line, especially if Warren is playing on most passing downs.
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