Fantasy Football Week 10: Eight things to know
Leonard Fournette and Sony Michel are working their way back, but are we done trusting Adrian Peterson?
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Adrian Peterson may struggle finding room to run.
Peterson has been one of the best stories of 2018, but it may be coming to an end. The Redskins placed both of their starting guards on injured reserve this week and were already without Trent Williams. They could not open any holes against the Atlanta Falcons, a team equally ravaged by injuries.
On the bright side, Peterson faces a Tampa Bay defense that is allowing 34.4 points per game to opposing teams. You should go into this game recognizing the ceiling and the floor. I would expect a low rushing average, and there's a risk Ryan Fitzpatrick starts hot and puts Washington into a pass-heavy script. But against a defense this bad there should also be multiple red-zone opportunities, and I like Peterson's touchdown potential. Plus, Fitzpatrick could just as easily give Washington short fields if he starts like he did against Carolina.
A.J. Green's absence creates opportunity in Cincinnati.
Don't get me wrong, it's a terrible thing for the Bengals (especially Andy Dalton) but without Green there are a lot of opportunities for pass catchers against a good matchup. Green has been targeted on 25.6 percent of Dalton's throws this season.
The most immediate beneficiary will be Tyler Boyd, who has had a pretty great season with Green. Boyd has seen at least nine targets in four games this season, and he's scored at least 20 PPR Fantasy points in all of them. He's a must-start receiver and a free-space in DFS. After that it gets hard to figure.
C.J Uzomah and Giovani Bernard are battling through injuries. If they play, Uzomah would be a top-12 tight end and Bernard would be a desperation flex. Alex Erickson also fits into that category, with limited upside but a decent PPR floor. Finally, the Bengals could turn to Joe Mixon more in the passing game.
We're always looking for reliable running backs, so we welcome Fournette and Michel back with open arms. But also with cautious optimism. Both of these backs have teammates that will handle the work in the passing game, and both have a risk of re-injury in their first game back from injury. So they're low-end No. 2 backs this week instead of the must-start options they have been in the past.
Michel is even a little worse, because this Titans defense has been legitimately good against the running game. It is the No. 2 defense in terms of Fantasy points allowed to the position, and it is the No. 1 overall defense in terms of points allowed. This week we'll find out this week how much of that has to do with its schedule.
The Falcons and Saints are outdoors, which hasn't been great.
The Falcons really challenged this theory with their performance against Washington last week, and these two are facing very good matchups. But there's at least a little reason to be concerned about one of these offenses.
Drew Brees has always been better in the dome than he has outdoors, and the Saints have been far more conservative on the road, other than their game at Atlanta (in a dome). Against the Giants, Ravens and Vikings on the road, Brees only averaged 28 pass attempts per game and didn't reach 220 yards in any of those games. It's not a great week for streaming quarterbacks, but Brees is not in my top-12 this week. If you've been carrying two quarterbacks and one of them is Brees, the other is probably your best bet.
It was really nice to see Mariota and Johnson re-emerge in Week 9 but I'm going to have to see more before I completely buy back in. Not that there aren't compelling narratives.
Mariota finally shed the glove he had to wear because he previously could not feel his fingers. That seems like a pretty good excuse for a poor first half. So what did he do without the glove? He averaged 8.3 yards per pass against an above-average defense. His volume should tick up this week against the Patriots as well.
Johnson saw nine targets against the Chiefs and now faces a team that has been the worst against pass-catching running backs over the past three seasons. It's a great opportunity. But the fact he only had one carry in Week 9 still limits his upside.
The Bears offense should bounce back.
Were you let down by Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears offense last week? Don't be discouraged because it should bounce right back in Week 10. The difference? The matchup.
In Week 9 the Bears faced a Bills team with a relatively good defense and Nathan Peterman starting at quarterback. It had no need to pass or expose Trubisky to hits. In Week 10, the Bears face a Lions team with very little talent on defense and a pretty good offense. Trubisky is a top-10 quarterback once again.
The one area of concern should be with the receivers. Allen Robinson is back and we really don't have much idea how the targets will be divvied up between him, Taylor Gabriel and Anthony Miller. They're all flex-worthy but they don't have a very high floor.
Can Mullens Magic continue on Monday Night Football?
No. I don't buy it.
As I mentioned above, the Raiders were an embarrassment on Thursday Night Football. They looked like they didn't know the scheme and their effort was subpar, to be kind. A total of 181 of Mullens passing yards came after the catch. The Giants are nothing special on defense, but I'd expect a far better effort from them. If you're looking for a streamer, I'd prefer Blake Bortles or the other quarterback in this game, Eli Manning.
So who should you sit and start? And what shocking QB could win you Week 10? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy football rankings for every single position, and see which shocking QB finishes in the top 10 this week, all from the model that out-performed experts big time last season.
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