Fantasy Football Week 10 Lineup Cheat Sheet: Start or sit calls on Bilal Powell, Alfred Morris, T.Y. Hilton and other on-the-fence guys
Lineup decisions are more crucial than ever. Dave Richard breaks down the matchups, stats and game film to help set his confidence level for every Week 10 Fantasy consideration.
The Lineup Cheat Sheet combines Fantasy analysis and game-flow predictions with a confidence scale to give you a definitive answer on who to start in your leagues.
The higher the number next to a player's name, the more confident you should be to start him. If a player isn't listed, don't start him.
To find a specific player, use your search function -- CTRL-F on PCs and Command-F on Macs. If neither of those are options, or if you're on a mobile device, you can scroll by game.
If you're still unsure, just send a note on Twitter (@daverichard) and I'll give it a look, time permitting.
Packers at Bears
|Packers|| ||Bears|| |
|Brett Hundley||(3.1)||Mitchell Trubisky||(2.7)|
|Ty Montgomery||(4.8)||Jordan Howard||(9.3)|
|Aaron Jones||(3.75)||Tarik Cohen||(4.5)|
|Davante Adams||(5.6)||Dion Sims||(3.6)|
|Jordy Nelson||(4.4)||Bears DST||(7.5)|
|Randall Cobb||(4.0)|| || |
|Packers DST||(5.7)|| || |
Packers coach Mike McCarthy said Monday that Brett Hundley "is not our issue," but he's a huge issue when it comes to the numbers of Nelson and Adams. Each averaged at least 12.0 yards per catch with Rodgers and is each below 10.0 yards per catch with Hundley. It doesn't help that both of their catch rates are way down with Hundley. Between this and the Packers' conservative approach offensively, both receivers' expectations are capped. The Bears defense is rested, playing at home, and excellent against opposing receivers over its past four games.
Browns at Lions
|Browns|| ||Lions|| |
|DeShone Kizer||(4.1)||Matthew Stafford||(9.2)|
|Isaiah Crowell||(5.5)||Ameer Abdullah||(4.5)|
|Duke Johnson||(5.4)||Theo Riddick||(4.1)|
|Browns DST||(2.0)||Marvin Jones||(9.0)|
| || ||Golden Tate||(8.7)|
| || ||Eric Ebron||(4.4)|
| || ||Lions DST||(8.1)|
There is legit temptation to go with Crowell -- the Lions have allowed a touchdown to a running back in all but one game this season. Plus Crowell scored and totaled over 100 yards in his last game. But he has over a dozen carries in just three games out of eight, a by-product of Cleveland being forced to play from behind. That figures to be the case this week at Detroit. Half of Crow's Week 8 catches came after Duke Johnson left with injury, so chances are he won't get those opportunities with Johnson returning. Add it up and Crowell's going to have to score to help your Fantasy team. It's a lot to ask for considering his limited workload and the Browns' overall inefficiencies on offense.
Abdullah got 21 carries and scored and STILL didn't come up with 10 Fantasy points in a standard format last week. Fumbling twice (and turning it over once) hurts his cause to ever get those kinds of opportunities again. The Lions figure to revert to a multi-back system when it comes to running the ball, limiting Abdullah's handoffs and likely keeping him from playing near the goal line. This is all before noticing that the Browns are allowing 3.0 yards per carry to running backs even though they've seen the eighth-most rush attempts per game (29.0). It should mean more single-digit numbers for Abdullah's Fantasy owners.
Steelers at Colts
|Steelers|| ||Colts|| |
|Ben Roethlisberger||(8.5)||Jacoby Brissett||(4.5)|
|Le'Veon Bell||(9.6)||Frank Gore||(5.0)|
|Antonio Brown||(9.9)||Marlon Mack||(4.2)|
|JuJu Smith-Schuster||(6.8)||T.Y. Hilton||(5.65)|
|Martavis Bryant||(2.6)||Jack Doyle||(6.8)|
|Jesse James||(4.0)||Colts DST||(2.1)|
|Steelers DST||(7.9)|| || |
Roethlisberger's track record away from Pittsburgh isn't great, but his recent success against the Colts is better than great. He's thrown at least three scores with no interceptions in each of three matchups against Chuck Pagano's Colts in 2014, 2015 and 2016, including a 221-yard, three-touchdown game at Indy last Thanksgiving. On the season Indianapolis is allowing 279.7 pass yards per game, second-worst in football with 15 total touchdowns to quarterbacks. With the Colts secondary a mess and the pass rush a work-in-progress, Roethlisberger should have a solid game.
I turned my opinion around on Hilton after talking about his outlook with former Steelers cornerback Bryant McFadden on our late-week podcast. McFadden believes Hilton is an easy target for the Steelers pass defense to focus on taking away from Jacoby Brissett, particularly in obvious passing situations and in the red zone. I went back and checked out how the Steelers played against guys like A.J. Green, Tyreek Hill and Stefon Diggs and sure enough they were all over them. Those three combined for one catch over six targets on third and fourth downs and not one of them was targeted in the red zone. There were similarly poor results for Hilton in his last two against the Steelers in 2015 and 2016. The Steelers are a safe bet to wipe away Hilton, especially if his groin injury limits him.
Chargers at Jaguars
|Chargers|| ||Jaguars|| |
|Philip Rivers||(5.6)||Blake Bortles||(4.9)|
|Melvin Gordon||(8.7)||Leonard Fournette||(9.8)|
|Keenan Allen||(5.8)||Marqise Lee||(4.7)|
|Travis Benjamin||(4.3)||Allen Hurns||(4.1)|
|Hunter Henry||(6.4)||Jaguars DST||(9.2)|
|Chargers DST||(5.1)|| || |
The Jaguars pass defense has turned out to be incredibly good and Allen has been incredibly disappointing. He's fallen to 10 Fantasy points or fewer in PPR leagues for four straight weeks. More concerning is his decrease in targets since Week 6 and a drop in catch rate from 68.6 percent of his targets to a wimpy 54.8 percent. At some point this season he figures to break out of his slump, but not on the road against Jacksonville's tough pass defense.
Saints at Bills
|Saints|| ||Bills|| |
|Drew Brees||(7.7)||Tyrod Taylor||(7.5)|
|Mark Ingram||(8.5)||LeSean McCoy||(7.8)|
|Alvin Kamara||(7.7)||Kelvin Benjamin||(5.9)|
|Michael Thomas||(9.1)||Deonte Thompson||(4.2)|
|Ted Ginn||(7.1)||Jordan Matthews||(3.0)|
|Brandon Coleman||(2.2)||Charles Clay||(7.3)|
|Saints DST||(6.5)||Bills DST||(6.1)|
Benjamin's first game with his new team is a familiar opponent that has shut him down. In effectively four career games against the Saints, Benjamin has zero with 10-plus Fantasy points in non-PPR settings (one over 10 in PPR). New Orleans boasts a good pass defense complete with emerging shutdown cornerback Marshon Lattimore. He figures to match up the most with Benjamin and keep him under wraps. Don't lose sight of the fact that Benjamin is still working on understanding the Bills playbook and developing chemistry with quarterback Tyrod Taylor. Expectations shouldn't be too high.
It's always a risk to start a player in his first game coming back from injury, but starting pretty much any non-obvious tight end is a risk anyway. At least Clay has established rapport with Taylor and shouldn't keep getting covered like a No. 1 receiver now that Buffalo has added some help at receiver. The Saints have been solid against non-obvious tight ends, but they also haven't been tested and don't quite cover them with the same tenacity as they do receivers. It would be stunning if Clay didn't come up with at least five catches.
Jets at Buccaneers
|Jets|| ||Buccaneers|| |
|Josh McCown||(7.3)||Ryan Fitzpatrick||(5.3)|
|Bilal Powell||(8.2)||Doug Martin||(5.2)|
|Elijah McGuire||(4.6)||Peyton Barber||(3.55)|
|Robby Anderson||(7.5)||DeSean Jackson||(6.1)|
|Jermaine Kearse||(3.7)||Adam Humphries||(3.3)|
|Austin Seferian-Jenkins||(6.2)||Cameron Brate||(7.0)|
|Jets DST||(7.4)||O.J. Howard||(5.6)|
| || ||Buccaneers DST||(3.7)|
Jackson will work as the Bucs' No. 1 receiver with Mike Evans suspended, but it also means he'll draw coverage like a No. 1 receiver against a pretty good Jets secondary. It won't help that he'll catch passes from Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has targeted D-Jax less than Evans, Cameron Brate and Adam Humphries so far this season (the two did connect for a touchdown in Week 6). In five games with a minimum of seven targets, Jackson's hit 10-plus Fantasy points just twice.
In consecutive weeks the Jets have held each of Jay Ajayi, Devonta Freeman and LeSean McCoy to seven Fantasy points or less. Meanwhile, Martin has averaged below 4.0 yards per carry for four straight games and his role could be in flux after going nowhere on eight carries last week at New Orleans. Tack on an O-line that's gone backward since the season started and Martin is high-risk, low-reward choice for Week 10.
Not only has the Buccaneers run defense faded over the past four weeks (six rushing touchdowns, 4.5 yards per carry), but over the past two weeks we've seen running backs succeed as pass-catchers against them, too (one score, 10.5 yards per catch). If Matt Forte ends up missing the game, Powell should pick up plenty of targets and work all three downs for the Jets.
Vikings at Redskins
|Vikings|| ||Redskins|| |
|Case Keenum||(5.7)||Kirk Cousins||(5.9)|
|Jerick McKinnon||(8.1)||Chris Thompson||(6.3)|
|Latavius Murray||(3.7)||Rob Kelley||(4.7)|
|Adam Thielen||(8.0)||Josh Doctson||(3.8)|
|Stefon Diggs||(6.6)||Vernon Davis||(5.8)|
|Kyle Rudolph||(7.2)||Redskins DST||(5.3)|
|Vikings DST||(8.0)|| || |
The Redskins' track record suggests that outside receivers struggle while slot wideouts thrive. No one plays in the slot for Minnesota more than Thielen, and no one gets more targets per game from Case Keenum than Thielen (8.6 to Stefon Diggs' 6.2 and Kyle Rudolph's 6.1). With Diggs expected to see more of Josh Norman, check out Thielen working the middle of the field on both short and deep routes. Touchdowns have been hard for him to come by, but this matchup should offer a good shot at a 100-yard game, something he's been close to three times this season and twice in his past three outings.
Bengals at Titans
|Bengals|| ||Titans|| |
|Andy Dalton||(6.1)||Marcus Mariota||(6.2)|
|Joe Mixon||(6.1)||DeMarco Murray||(5.45)|
|A.J. Green||(9.7)||Derrick Henry||(5.6)|
|Brandon LaFell||(2.1)||Rishard Matthews||(4.8)|
|Tyler Kroft||(6.0)||Corey Davis||(4.5)|
|Bengals DST||(4.9)||Eric Decker||(2.4)|
| || ||Delanie Walker||(6.6)|
| || ||Titans DST||(6.3)|
Tennessee's run defense has been among the best in the league, holding running backs to 3.4 yards per carry and two rushing scores through eight games. Between his own play and poor run blocking, Mixon himself has scored twice in eight games with a 2.9 rushing average. Where Mixon can pad his stats is through the air, where he's averaging 10.2 yards per catch and has three grabs in each of his last three games. It's that little bonus that keeps his floor of about 80 total yards intact. Expecting a lot more than that, however, is a mistake.
Texans at Rams
|Texans|| ||Rams|| |
|Tom Savage||(2.9)||Jared Goff||(8.7)|
|Lamar Miller||(6.7)||Todd Gurley||(9.7)|
|DeAndre Hopkins||(9.4)||Sammy Watkins||(7.0)|
|Will Fuller||(3.6)||Robert Woods||(6.2)|
|Texans DST||(4.5)||Cooper Kupp||(4.9)|
| || ||Tyler Higbee||(5.2)|
| || ||Rams DST||(9.1)|
In the last two weeks the Texans have allowed a ridiculous six pass plays of 40-plus yards along with four passing touchdowns from 18 yards or longer. They've accumulated a modest five sacks in those games while the receivers they've faced have averaged an insane 269.0 yards per game. It's the perfect opponent for the improving Rams pass game to feast on. Watkins' lone catch last week was a 67-yard bomb and Woods scored from four yards out after an unlikely 52-yard catch-and run touchdown. It's crystal clear that the Rams have evolved into a dynamic offense that is willing to take some deep shots, and they're sure to again this Sunday.
Cowboys at Falcons
|Cowboys|| ||Falcons|| |
|Dak Prescott||(8.0)||Matt Ryan||(7.1)|
|Alfred Morris||(6.8)||Devonta Freeman||(7.2)|
|Rod Smith||(3.95)||Tevin Coleman||(5.9)|
|Dez Bryant||(6.9)||Julio Jones||(9.3)|
|Terrance Williams||(3.5)||Mohamed Sanu||(5.7)|
|Cole Beasley||(3.4)||Taylor Gabriel||(2.7)|
|Jason Witten||(4.8)||Austin Hooper||(4.6)|
|Cowboys DST||(5.5)||Falcons DST||(6.4)|
No kidding, Coleman's been a risky starter pretty much every game this season. But it's the lack of touches, including a season-low five carries last week, that will make Fantasy owners really nervous. Atlanta's run game hasn't been as good as before and Coleman specifically has been held to under 4.0 yards per carry in three of his past four. Touchdowns have saved him from some really ugly stat lines in half of those games. Dallas' run defense has held the likes of Carlos Hyde and Kareem Hunt to under 10 Fantasy points over their last three games -- it's hard to put faith in Coleman knowing he's down to about eight carries and one catch per contest given Dallas' improvements.
Giants at 49ers
|Giants|| ||49ers|| |
|Eli Manning||(6.5)||C.J. Beathard||(3.4)|
|Orleans Darkwa||(6.75)||Carlos Hyde||(8.3)|
|Wayne Gallman||(3.6)||Marquise Goodwin||(5.0)|
|Sterling Shepard||(7.2)||Garrett Celek||(5.4)|
|Tavarres King||(2.8)||49ers DST||(3.8)|
|Evan Engram||(9.0)|| || |
|Giants DST||(7.0)|| || |
Finally, the Giants have found a running back to stick with. Darkwa has led the Giants in carries over their past three games, amassing at least 15 carries in two of them including 16 last week -- and he didn't even play in the fourth quarter. He's also picked up five catches in his last two games. The 49ers run defense is the worst in the league and the accompanying offense doesn't put up enough points to force an opponent to abandon the run. Expect Darkwa to stay involved and get a couple of cracks at the end zone.
Patriots at Broncos
|Patriots|| ||Broncos|| |
|Tom Brady||(7.9)||Brock Osweiler||(4.3)|
|James White||(6.2)||C.J. Anderson||(5.7)|
|Dion Lewis||(5.1)||Devontae Booker||(4.0)|
|Rex Burkhead||(3.8)||Demaryius Thomas||(7.3)|
|Brandin Cooks||(8.8)||Emmanuel Sanders||(6.3)|
|Danny Amendola||(2.9)||A.J. Derby||(3.9)|
|Phillip Dorsett||(2.3)||Broncos DST||(6.6)|
|Rob Gronkowski||(9.5)|| || |
|Patriots DST||(7.7)|| || |
The hunch here is that the Patriots will scheme their pass defense to tilt coverage toward Sanders instead of Demaryius Thomas simply because Sanders has beaten the Patriots with his speed in the past. A similar approach helped New England in its past two overall with Denver, holding Sanders to 62 yards or less in both games. Having Brock Osweiler under center doesn't help Sanders' cause much either.
Dolphins at Panthers
|Dolphins|| ||Panthers|| |
|Jay Cutler||(5.4)||Cam Newton||(6.9)|
|Damien Williams||(5.3)||Christian McCaffrey||(7.3)|
|Kenyan Drake||(4.9)||Jonathan Stewart||(3.65)|
|Jarvis Landry||(7.4)||Devin Funchess||(6.5)|
|DeVante Parker||(6.0)||Curtis Samuel||(3.9)|
|Kenny Stills||(2.5)||Panthers DST||(7.3)|
|Julius Thomas||(3.7)|| || |
|Dolphins DST||(4.7)|| || |
Expected to play behind a further depleted offensive line, Drake and Williams will split work against a Carolina run defense that has been tough on opposing run games, especially recently. Not only are the Panthers holding opponents to 3.6 yards per carry on the season, but they're also covering passes to running backs well, allowing 7.3 yards per catch. And only four touchdowns by running backs have been scored all season. Williams gets a slight edge since he's the Dolphins passing downs/short-yardage back, but neither guy is worth getting excited about in standard leagues.
Seahawks at Cardinals
|Seahawks|| ||Cardinals|| |
|Russell Wilson||(8.9)||Drew Stanton||(3.9)|
|Thomas Rawls||(5.8)||Adrian Peterson||(7.0)|
|Doug Baldwin||(9.2)||Larry Fitzgerald||(5.5)|
|Tyler Lockett||(3.2)||John Brown||(4.6)|
|Paul Richardson||(3.1)||Jaron Brown||(2.0)|
|Jimmy Graham||(8.0)||Jermaine Gresham||(3.8)|
|Seahawks DST||(7.8)||Cardinals DST||(5.9)|
The concerns here are three-fold: First, is Rawls really as good as the season-high 4.3 rushing average he had last week suggests? Second, is the Seattle offensive line good enough to keep popping open holes for him? Third, will offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell dial up Rawls' number enough times to give him a chance at a big game? Only once all season has a Seattle running back had more than 12 carries in a game, and Rawls specifically has exceeded 12 carries four times in his last 17 games (past two seasons). He'll lose playing time on passing downs and will almost certainly need a touchdown to amass at least 10 Fantasy points. Arizona has allowed just four of those to running backs all year.
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