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With Zach Ertz in Arizona, Dallas Goedert was supposed to finally be freed. In some ways, he has been. After all, his 28.6% target share since Week 7 ranks second among all tight ends and leads the Eagles

At the same time, Goedert has averaged a mediocre 10.17 PPR Fantasy points per game in those three weeks, just barely outpacing Ertz over the same stretch. For the season, Goedert ranks 12th at the position in Fantasy points per game, but he's closer to Evan Engram in 23rd than he is to Kyle Pitts in 10th. It's fair to say he's been one of the disappointments at the position, even since Ertz's departure.

The problems are various. For one thing, he hasn't scored since Ertz left and only has two touchdowns on the season. Then again, his 5.4% touchdown rate doesn't exactly scream regression when Jalen Hurts has a modest four percent career rate himself. 

The second problem is that while Goedert's share of the pie has skyrocketed, the size of the pie itself has shrunk in spectacular fashion. Hurts has attempted just 31 passes over the past two weeks. Again, like the lack of recent touchdowns, that should improve. I'd expect a minimum of 25 pass attempts per game for the Eagles from this point forward.

With that type of volume, Goedert would see seven targets per game at his recent target rate. At that point, it becomes a question of whether he performs at the rate he has this year (10.8 yards per target) or his career (8.0 yards per target) and how many touchdowns he scores. 

For now, Goedert looks more like the borderline No. 1 tight end he's been with Ertz than the top-six breakout we expected when Ertz was dealt. I would expect that to change before the end of the year, but I'm not sure it does in Week 10.

Here's everything else you need to know about tight end in Week 10:

Week 10 TE Preview
TE Preview
Who's Out

The following players are not being projected to play Week 10 at this time. Here's what it means:

NE New England • #81
Age: 26 • Experience: 5 yrs.
Hunter Henry could see a target boost.
DEN Denver • #85
Age: 23 • Experience: Rookie
We expect Noah Fant will return.
TE Preview
Numbers to Know
  • 13 -- Tyler Higbee leads all tight ends with 13 red zone targets.
  • 0 -- The Saints, Vikings, and Broncos have still not allowed a touchdown to a tight end this season.
  • 30.8% -- Kyle Pitts' 30.8% air yards share is tops among tight ends.
  • 19% -- Cole Kmet has the sixth-highest target share amongst tight ends and a very good schedule coming out of the bye.
  • 48.5 -- Pat Freiermuth has scored 48.5 PPR points since Week 6. That makes him TE3, and he had his bye in that stretch.
  • 4 -- Hunter Henry hasn't seen more than four targets in a game since Week 5.
TE Preview
Matchups that matter
ATL Atlanta • #8
Age: 21 • Experience: Rookie
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ DAL DAL -9 O/U 54.5
OPP VS TE
18th
PROJ PTS
13.7
TE RNK
5th
YTD Stats
REC
36
TAR
57
REYDS
546
TD
1
FPTS/G
12.1
DAL Dallas • #86
Age: 25 • Experience: 4 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
vs ATL DAL -9 O/U 54.5
OPP VS TE
15th
PROJ PTS
11.9
TE RNK
10th
YTD Stats
REC
37
TAR
49
REYDS
424
TD
3
FPTS/G
12.2
PIT Pittsburgh • #88
Age: 23 • Experience: Rookie
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
vs DET PIT -9 O/U 42.5
OPP VS TE
10th
PROJ PTS
12.1
TE RNK
9th
YTD Stats
REC
27
TAR
33
REYDS
245
TD
4
FPTS/G
9.4
PHI Philadelphia • #88
Age: 27 • Experience: 4 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ DEN DEN -2.5 O/U 44
OPP VS TE
4th
PROJ PTS
10.9
TE RNK
8th
YTD Stats
REC
27
TAR
37
REYDS
401
TD
2
FPTS/G
10.1
TE Preview
Waiver Wire Targets
Week 10 Streamers
JAC Jacksonville • #85
Age: 26 • Experience: 5 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ IND IND -10.5 O/U 47.5
OPP VS TE
30th
TE RNK
11th
ROSTERED
43%
YTD Stats
REC
29
TAR
43
REYDS
332
TD
0
FPTS/G
7.5
Arnold leads the Jaguars in target share over the past four weeks and has at least 10 PPR Fantasy points in three of those four games despite the fact that he hasn't reached the end zone. Arnold may be even better moving forward.
WAS Washington • #82
Age: 30 • Experience: 6 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
vs TB TB -9.5 O/U 51.5
OPP VS TE
23rd
TE RNK
21st
ROSTERED
53%
YTD Stats
REC
12
TAR
14
REYDS
117
TD
2
FPTS/G
8.4
We don't know for sure if Logan Thomas is ready to play, but he'll slot in right where Ricky Seals-Jones has when he's back. This week's matchup against Tampa Bay would be a nice place to start.
MIN Minnesota • #83
Age: 26 • Experience: 4 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ LAC LAC -3 O/U 53
OPP VS TE
24th
TE RNK
14th
ROSTERED
40%
Conklin has seen 19 targets in his last three games and five or more in five of his past six games.
TE Preview
DFS Plays
Top Play
Projections powered by Sportsline
PIT Pittsburgh • #88
Age: 23 • Experience: Rookie
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
vs DET PIT -9 O/U 42.5
OPP VS TE
10th
PROJ PTS
12.1
TE RNK
9th
YTD Stats
REC
27
TAR
33
REYDS
245
TD
4
FPTS/G
9.4
Freiermuth's explosion came on Monday night, so his Week 10 price is unaffected. He's been similar to Arnold the past three weeks except he's scored three touchdowns, which is a pretty big difference. There should be plenty of red zone opportunities against the Lions.
Contrarian Play
Projections powered by Sportsline
JAC Jacksonville • #85
Age: 26 • Experience: 5 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ IND IND -10.5 O/U 47.5
OPP VS TE
30th
PROJ PTS
10.8
TE RNK
11th
YTD Stats
REC
29
TAR
43
REYDS
332
TD
0
FPTS/G
7.5
Freiermuth will be the cheap play at tight end and a lot of people are going to pay up for Kyle Pitts or T.J. Hockenson. That should leave Arnold, and his 20% target share, in the sweet spot as far as roster rate. We just need him to match his recent production, with a score and he'll pay off huge.
TE Preview
Heath's Projections

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