Your Fantasy team probably falls into one of three categories at this point in the season. You are either:
- Situation 1: You're sitting at 8-10 wins and feeling very good about your chances of making the playoffs.
- Situation 2: You're between four and seven wins and are still fighting for a playoff spot, so every win matters.
- Situation 3: Three or fewer wins. A tough look. Hopefully you're in a keeper or Dynasty league, because otherwise every single week is a win-or-go-home situation, and that's a lot of pressure.
How you go about building your roster for the rest of the season is going to depend a lot on which of those three situations you find yourself in. If you are in Situation 1, you should be laser-focused on the future. Losing one or two games isn't likely to cost you anything, so if you can make a move that might make your team slightly worse in Week 11 but might make your team much better in Week 14 -- say, trading Damien Harris for Kareem Hunt -- it probably makes a lot of sense to do that. You should also be looking at trading depth starters for either upgrades to your starting lineup or high-upside RB handcuffs. It's all about increasing your chances of winning the championship.
In Scenario 2, you've got to strike a bit of a balance. I wrote a trade mailbag column Wednesday, and one of the most interesting questions I got was about Jonathan Taylor's trade value. And not just because he's on such an unsustainable (in my opinion) heater right now -- but also because he's still got his bye coming in Week 14. If you've got a playoff spot locked in, that doesn't matter, but if you are in a spot where your playoff chances hinge on Week 14, that might be a reason to try to sell now. It would be an excruciating decision, but it just may be the right one.
And if you're in Situation 3 … well, just keep with it. Maybe a miracle could happen, but more importantly, you don't want to be the person who gifts someone a playoff spot because they didn't set their lineup. You should try to get wild with your roster: Try to buy low on every disappointing star you can and see if, like, DeAndre Hopkins, Josh Jacobs, and T.J. Hockenson can all get hot at the same time and lead you to a miracle run.
Which is all to say that, while there's never a one-size-fits-all approach to Fantasy analysis, that becomes more and more true as the season goes on. How you value any given player in any given situation depends on our record, your willingness to take on risk, and countless other factors. What we're here to do is try to guide you as best as we can. And to answer your specific questions, of course.
Dave Richard answered a bunch of your questions for this week in his Starts and Sits, Sleepers and Busts column as he goes through every game on the schedule trying to help you figure out who should be in your lineup. We'll take a look at some of his calls in today's newsletter before getting to all of the injury news you need to know about and a preview of tonight's game.
And, in case you missed it, Jamey Eisenberg's Start 'Em & Sit 'Em column came out yesterday with all of his favorite picks to start and players to avoid. If you still have questions after all that, make sure to subscribe to the Fantasy Football Today YouTube channel and join Adam Aizer, Heath Cummings, and I from at 2 p.m. ET today for our start/sit live stream, where we'll be answering as many of your questions as we can for Week 11. And, if you have any other questions, make sure you send them to me at Chris.Towers@ViacomCBS.com with the subject line "#AskFFT" to be included in Sunday morning's mailbag.
Get ready for Week 11 with our other preview content here:
- Week 11 Start 'Em & Sit 'Em: QB | RB | WR
- Starts, sits and sleepers for every game
- Week 11 Position Previews: QB | RB | WR | TE
- My Week 11 Rankings: Flex Top 150 | QB | RB | WR | TE
Keep an eye out for tomorrow's newsletter, where I'll preview every game this week, including full injury report updates from around the league. Here's what else today's newsletter will cover:
1️⃣1️⃣Dave Richard's Week 11 Preview
There are the obvious calls, and then there are the ones you need help with. Dave Richard goes through each game to identify the most interesting matchups and biggest lineup dilemmas for Week 11. Here are some of his top picks for this week. You can find the rest of his advice for Week 11 here.
- Damien Harris -- "In Weeks 5 and 6 when both played at least 30% of the snaps, Harris dominated touches inside of 10 yards from the goal line (six with two scores) compared to Stevenson (two with one score). They mixed and matched on rushing downs (Harris having an edge) while Brandon Bolden played the majority of passing downs. Expect that kind of three-headed monster. The good news is that the short week definitely favors the Patriots to run effectively versus a Falcons squad that's shed a touchdown to a rusher in 8 of 9 games as well as 90-plus total yards to a running back in each of their past three. The Falcons don't give up a lot of explosive runs (just 22 of 10-plus yards on the season, fifth-best), which means volume might have to truly carry the day for each guy. Harris is the safest option as a No. 2 Fantasy running back while Stevenson would be a decent flex."
- T.J. Hockenson -- "Pro Football Focus counted Hockenson as a pass blocker on four plays last week but it looked more like double that when reviewing his game. It made sense - the Lions opted to keep him in as a blocker to keep Jared Goff clean. Did it help? Not really, no. Goff wasn't good, but he could have been better had he located the few times when Hockenson was wide open, including on a play very late in regulation that just might have set up a game-winning field goal. We're left to wonder if the Lions will continue to prioritize blocking for Hockenson against the Browns and their strong pass rush. Then again, this Cleveland squad had Hunter Henry dunk on them twice last week and Pat Freiermuth score on three games ago. They play a ton of zone coverage, which helps Goff's accuracy (69% completion rate against that scheme). Your hope with Hockenson is that he's rediscovered by Goff and racks his way to 10-plus PPR points like he's done in three of his past four."
- D.J. Moore -- "Moore hasn't put up 10-plus PPR points in any of his past three games and hasn't had 15-plus PPR points since Week 4. Since Week 5 he has led all Panthers receivers in every significant metric except one: catch rate, which was 51.9%. Of the 52 throws he saw, he caught 27 and didn't have a chance at 11 of them (including one from Cam Newton that was thrown behind him last week). He also is blamed for four drops. And Moore remains a minimal part of the Panthers offense when they get 10 yards or closer to the goal line (six targets this season, four catches, three scores). Not only does Newton's return further narrow the overall number of targets available, especially near the goal line, but there's nothing that suggests a vast improvement of target quality from Newton compared to Sam Darnold. Newton ranked 29th among quarterbacks in on-target rate in 2020. Washington's defense is coming off an impressive game against Tom Brady and the Buccaneers and has a pretty good understanding of Newton's strengths and weaknesses."
- Justin Fields -- "Fields has shown signs of impeccable play, particularly in the comeback effort at Pittsburgh, but this matchup figures to be problematic. On the year, Fields has played better versus zone coverages and when he's not pressured. The Ravens play the third-most man coverage (40.1%) in the league, they pressure quarterbacks at the ninth-highest rate (31.8%) and blitz at the fifth-highest rate (30.4%). They've especially blitzed inexperienced quarterbacks like Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow (24% in the first half before Burrow blew them out; he's great against man coverage). Fields is one of Fantasy's future superstars but his upside is low to begin with and the aggressive Ravens pass rush isn't a good Fantasy fit."
- Jarvis Landry -- "I was all set to make the case for Landry as a start this week -- the Browns are playing the Lions! -- but Landry's comments about Mayfield's health have scared me off. Cleveland.com listed Mayfield's injuries as a torn labrum, a fractured bone in his left shoulder, a sore foot and a knee contusion. As such, Mayfield ranks 22nd in completion rate (65.4%) and 20th in pass attempts 10-plus yards downfield but it's with the context that he's thrown 246 passes over basically eight-and-a-half games. Where Landry's appeal lies is in the matchup. Last week the Lions allowed Mason Rudolph to complete 19 passes nine air yards or closer to the line of scrimmage. Of course they didn't go very far, but the reception totals for primary slot guy Ray-Ray McCloud were high. Maybe Landry can rack up seven-plus receptions and save the day in PPR formats."
- Latavius Murray -- "Before he got hurt in Week 6, Murray led the way in snaps played inside of 10 yards (9 of 24), snaps on third and fourth downs (21 of 73), total yards from scrimmage (237) and total touches (63). But he didn't look good doing it, tacking on ugly inefficiencies in yards per carry (3.6) and yards before contact (1.0). Devonta Freeman hasn't been bad in his place and may have earned himself the lead role Murray previously held. The most likely conclusion is both play a bunch (Ty'Son Williams remains an afterthought) with Murray having a nudge in short-yardage/goal-line situations. The Bears have allowed a touchdown to a running back in each of their last five games and 90-plus total yards in three of their past four. Murray feels touchdown-needy while Freeman has appeal as a safe non-PPR flex."
- Adam Thielen -- "In their last seven games, the Packers have allowed four scores and only three 90-plus yard games to receivers. Only high-volume wideouts like Diontae Johnson, Ja'Marr Chase and Terry McLaurin found their way to statistical success. Meanwhile, poor Thielen has 12 or fewer PPR points in four of his past six games even though he remains a key part of the Vikings offense. He tends to see a higher percentage of targets against man coverage, and he averages nearly 5.0 more yards per catch against man than zone. He also has morphed into a touchdown-reliant receiver, and the Packers have morphed into a dominant red-zone defensive unit complete with only four touchdowns allowed from inside the 20 in their last four games -- and none to a receiver. Thielen is at best a low-end No. 2 wideout, even in PPR."
- Russell Wilson -- "There are reasons for concern after last week for Wilson. One, Wilson was pressured on 39.6% of his dropbacks last week; for the season the Seahawks allow the third-highest pressure rate at 28.4%. Arizona pressures offenses at the eighth-lowest rate (28.8%) and also doesn't blitz very often (22.4%), so perhaps there's a semblance of hope there. Two, by my count Wilson was off-target on eight of his 40 throws (20%) including a completion over the middle for D.K. Metcalf that would have been a big play had Wilson hit him in stride. Maybe he was rusty, maybe his finger was an issue. Three, the Seattle offense was a lot of the quick-pass game we actually anticipated when the season started along with a handful of deep tries. That meant high-percentage, but short, throws. Lastly, Wilson's 40 pass attempts were a season-high and totally not indicative of what the Seahawks want to do offensively. There's a fear that the matchup against the Cardinals could be a low-scoring, slow-paced snoozer that keeps Wilson from having a good Fantasy game, something he's done in half of his six games this season, way down from 2020. Arizona has held all but three quarterbacks to 19 or fewer Fantasy points this year and has kept Wilson to 23 Fantasy points or fewer in each of his past four games against them in Seattle."
🚑Week 11 Injury Watch
I'll have a full breakdown of the injury report in Friday's newsletter along with my preview of each game, but here's a quick look at the notable injuries we'll be watching this week based on Wednesday's practice participation reports.
Injuries to watch for Week 11
It's not clear what these injuries mean quite yet.
- Kyler Murray (ankle) -- Limited practice. Murray is making slow progress, but it does sound like he has a chance to return for Sunday's game against the Seahawks. Given the way the Cardinals have handled this, you can assume he won't come back at much less than 100%, so I would bet we'll see him get a full practice in before he's cleared.
- Lamar Jackson (Illness) -- Did not practice. Jackson's illness is not COVID related, so it probably isn't anything to worry about. Just note it and keep an eye out Thursday and Friday for his status.
- Aaron Rodgers (toe) -- Did not practice. Rodgers is planning to play despite the injury, so just keep an eye out for any setbacks. But plan on having him available as a low-end QB1 against the Vikings.
- Ben Roethlisberger (COVID-19) -- Because he's dealing with the COVID protocols, we won't really know if Roethlisberger will play until he returns two negative tests and is cleared to play. Assuming that happens by Saturday, he should be out there against the Chargers.
- Jared Goff (oblique) -- Did not practice. It looks like there is a real chance Goff won't play this week, so undrafted free agent Tim Boyle took first-team reps Wednesday and could be the starter. That would be bad, bad news for an already pretty miserable Lions offense against the Browns.
- Taysom Hill (foot) -- Did not practice. This is a new injury for Hill, who suffered it at some point during Week 10's game. Trevor Siemian seems locked in as the team's starting QB, and Hill getting hurt only increases his job security.
- D'Andre Swift (shoulder) -- Limited practice. Coming off a career-high 33 carries, Swift has a new injury. The fact that he was limited is a good sign for his chances to play, but it's something to watch. He's unlikely to see a workload like last week's even if healthy, of course.
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire (knee) -- Andy Reid told reporters Tuesday "there's a chance" Edwards-Helaire won't be activated until after the team's Week 12 bye, just a day after saying Edwards-Helaire's chances of returning for Sunday against the Cowboys had increased. Both could technically be true, but at this point the only thing that matters is if they activate him by Saturday's deadline. He'll be in the RB2 discussion for me if active, while Darrel Williams would be more of an RB3 for PPR.
- Miles Sanders (knee) -- Sanders was designated to return from IR Tuesday, which means they have to activate from within the next 21 days. That clears a path for him to return in Week 11 against the Saints, but it doesn't guarantee it. Like with Edwards-Helaire, we probably won't find out for sure until the weekend.
- James Robinson (knee/ankle) -- Did not practice. The knee injury is a new one, and while it is reportedly not a serious concern, we'll obviously have to keep a close eye on his status for the next few days. Robinson is a top-15 RB when healthy.
- Eli Mitchell (finger) -- Did not practice. Mitchell is dealing with a broken finger, but Kyle Shanahan told reporters both Tuesday and Wednesday he expects him to play against the Jaguars after having a pin inserted. It's certainly possible Mitchell plays, but until you see him on the practice field, you should probably be skeptical. Jeff Wilson would be a top-30 RB if Mitchell is out.
- Jeremy McNichols (concussion) -- Did not practice. McNichols is in the concussion protocol, putting his availability for this week's game in doubt. That could put D'Onta Foreman into a great position, since he seems more likely than Adrian Peterson to take on any receiving game work there might be out of the backfield. Foreman could be a top-30 RB this week if McNichols is out.
- Latavius Murray (ankle) -- Limited practice. The Ravens released Le'Veon Bell earlier this week, a good sign for Murray's chances. We'll see if he is cleared to play, and then the question will be whether Murray or Devonta Freeman is likely to start against the Bears. Neither would be more than an RB3 either way, and I might prefer to avoid them if there isn't clarity by Sunday.
- Davante Adams (shoulder) -- Limited practice. While this is a new injury and something to keep an eye on, Adams being limited seems like a good sign for the first practice of the week. .
- Marquise Brown (thigh) -- Did not practice. This is a new injury for Brown, so of course we'll keep an eye on it. If Brown can't play, Rashod Bateman would probably be a top-30 WR in the rankings for the matchup against the Bears, given his solid role (7.0 targets per game) through his first four games alongside Brown.
- Allen Robinson (hamstring) -- Did not practice. Coming out of the bye, this is a brand new injury for Robinson, so that's certainly a concern. We don't have any more details as of now, so we'll see what his usage looks like Thursday and Friday, though you probably don't want to use Robinson at this point anyway.
- Logan Thomas (hamstring) -- Thomas didn't practice Wednesday and was not designated to return from the IR just yet, so he may not be cleared to play in time for Sunday's game against the Panthers. Ricky Seals-Jones (hip) also did not practice Wednesday, so the Football Team could be short at tight end this week, with John Bates likely to play a larger role, but probably not enough to matter for Fantasy.
Trending up for Week 11
This doesn't mean they will play, but we got good news about them Wednesday.
- Alvin Kamara (knee) -- Limited practice. This is a good sign for Kamara, who sat out last week's game with the injury. We'll keep an eye on Kamara's status throughout the week, because he's a top-10 RB when healthy; Mark Ingram would be a top-20 option if Kamara is out again.
- Jamaal Williams (thigh) -- Limited practice. This is improvement for Williams, who has been out since Week 7 as a result of the injury. If Williams returns in time for Sunday's game against the Browns, he would be just a bench piece unless Swift's shoulder causes him to be limited or to sit.
- Chase Claypool (toe) -- Limited practice. Claypool getting back on the practice field is a good sign for his chances to return after missing Week 10. We'll see how he responds over the next few days, Claypool would be in the WR3 discussion if Roethlisberger is able to play.
Trending down for Week 11
This doesn't mean they won't play, but they aren't moving in the right direction yet.
- Zach Wilson (knee) -- Limited practice. Wilson continues to progress from his injury, but the Jets already announced Joe Flacco will start for them Sunday against Miami. Wilson did get a full practice in late last week, so he's probably not too far off.
- Aaron Jones (knee) -- Did not practice. Jones is expected to miss a week or two with the injury, and AJ Dillon is a top-10 RB for me as long as Jones is out.
- JaMycal Hasty (ankle) -- Did not practice. Hasty could be in line for a larger role in Week 11 if Mitchellis out and he plays, but he'll need to be cleared first, and this is a bad start.
- DeAndre Hopkins (hamstring) -- Did not practice. My guess is, Hopkins will be a game-time decision yet again this week. The good news is, the Cardinals have had plenty of leaks about both Hopkins and Murray's status well ahead of kickoff the past few weeks, so we should have a pretty good idea of his status on Sunday, if not before.
- Dallas Goedert (concussion) -- Did not practice. Goedert will have to clear the concussion protocol to be cleared to play, so we should know ahead of Sunday's game if he's going to be cleared.
🆚TNF Preview: Patriots at Falcons
All lines from Caesars Sportsbook
- Line: Patriots -7; 47 O/U
- Implied totals: Patriots 27-Falcons 20
There are some key question marks for this game. At least we know Damien Harris is going to play after he was removed from the injury report Wednesday. Of course, that just makes it tough to trust both him and Rhamondre Stevenson, one of Week 10's breakout stars. Both are in the RB3 range for me.
- Key injuries: Cordarrelle Patterson (ankle) -- So, this is really the one big injury question mark left after Harris was cleared to play. It was thought that Patterson might need to miss multiple weeks based on initial reports early this week, but he was able to practice on a limited basis every day this week, so there's a real chance he is cleared to play. That would be something. Of course, given the injury, I would be wary to trust him against such a tough matchup. I would probably still rank an active Patterson as a top-20 RB, but he would be a somewhat risky one. If Patterson doesn't play, Mike Davis is in the RB3 discussion and Wayne Gallman is a desperation FLEX play.
- What to watch for: The RB splits are the most compelling storylines. Stevenson is the only Patriots running back who has earned trust as both a rusher and receiver, but Harris has been solid as the lead back all season long. Would they really bench Harris for Stevenson? It seems unlikely, but not impossible; the most likely outcome, of course, is that they use both and it's just a frustrating split. On the other side, it will be interesting to see if Gallman's increased role in Week 10 was a sign that he might be pushing Davis aside, or if it was just because of the blowout. I would also really like to see the Falcons figure out how to get Kyle Pitts going, though that might be asking an awful lot against a matchup like this. He's a must-start TE, but I'm steeling myself for disappointment.
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