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It's not easy to pick contrarian plays in a week when we get five standalone games and another two teams on a bye. But it may be a little easier this week than it should be. That's partially because of how willing the public is to overreact to one week's results, at least at quarterback. Carson Wentz is projected for less than five percent ownership and I can only assume it's largely because of what the Saints did to him in Week 11. Let's take advantage of that in Week 12.
As always, I'm using ownership projections from @UFCollective. You can get their full projected ownership here.
QB
I don't dispute how terrible Wentz and the Eagles looked last week. I just don't think it has any bearing on how Week 12 will go. The Saints defense has clearly turned things around and they put a lot of pressure on Wentz. The Giants haven't put any pressure on anyone all year; why would they start Sunday (1 p.m. EST, available on fuboTV)?
And let's not forget how brilliant Wentz had been before Week 11. From Week 4 through Week 9, Wentz averaged 315 passing yards and 2.3 touchdowns per game. He was one of the most consistent Fantasy quarterbacks and averaged nearly 22 Fantasy points per game. Now he's priced $200-$300 more than Jameis Winston and Lamar Jackson ... and nobody wants to play him? Take advantage.
RB
I don't have a great understanding of why Phillip Lindsay's ownership isn't high. It's certainly not because of Lindsay's recent production. Lindsay had 106 total yards and two touchdowns in Royce Freeman's first game back last week, so I can't imagine that's the reason either. It could be because he's an underdog against an above-average run defense. But this is also the Steelers second road game in a row and Lindsay has been involved enough in the pass game lately I'm not that concerned about game script.
WR
Danny Amendola isn't exciting, but I do love his floor. Amendola has 13 or more PPR Fantasy points in four of his last five games and an excellent matchup indoors against the Colts in Week 12. Ryan Tannehill is back for the Dolphins, which could be a positive or negative. I feel pretty confident in Amendola getting you 12-13 points as a floor with an upside that stretches near 20.
Christian Kirk is the opposite of Amendola. There is no floor at all. But there's plenty of upside. This is a game where the Cardinals will be playing from behind and the Chargers will be doing everything they can to take away Larry Fitzgerald and David Johnson. That should lead to quality targets in the second half for Kirk, who has at times looked like an emerging threat in this offense. Fitzgerald will see more targets but Kirk will get the types of targets that can lead to big production.
So who should you sit and start? And what shocking QB could win you Week 12? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy football rankings for every single position, and see which shocking QB finishes in the top 10 this week, all from the model that out-performed experts big time last season.
