Watch Now: Early Week 12 NFL Picks: Cowboys at Patriots (0:57)

With Patrick Mahomes, Philip Rivers, Kirk Cousins and Kyler Murray on bye in Week 12, there are plenty of managers scrambling for a replacement at quarterback. There's also no shortage of streaming options, but this week is really going to test of how much you care about the matchup, and how you measure it.

In terms of Fantasy points allowed, Baker Mayfield and Dwayne Haskins have the best matchups, but Mason Rudolph and Sam Darnold aren't far behind and their matchups rate better by yards per attempt allowed. The thing is, those four signal callers have combined to throw 36 touchdowns and 35 interceptions this season. None of them rank among the top 20 at the position. Jeff Driskel doesn't either, but he's performed surprisingly well against the Bears and Cowboys and now gets to face a Washington defense that just allowed Darnold to throw four touchdowns.

Ryan Tannehill's matchup against Jacksonville isn't near as good as the other streaming options, but his advantage is that he's actually been good. He's scored at least 22 Fantasy points in every game he's started. 

The flip side of the matchup discussion is how much bad matchups matter for great quarterbacks. Aaron Rodgers is traveling to San Francisco and Dak Prescott heads to New England. These are the only two defenses surrendering fewer than 12 Fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Prescott has been so good this season that I can't sit him, but I would consider a few of the streamers over Rodgers. 

The one quarterback who has talent and a great matchup is Matt Ryan, which is why he's my No. 1 quarterback to start the week. 

Week 12 QB Preview
QB Preview
Numbers to know
  • 88 - Rushing yards for Jeff Driskel in his two starts. That certainly helps his floor.
  • 83.6% - On-target rate for Nick Foles. That's the highest mark in the league (min. 50 attempts)
  • 9.6 - Intended air yards per attempt for Ryan Tannehill this season. That's top five and two full yards higher than Marcus Mariota.
  • 8.8 - Yards per attempt for Dak Prescott. Lamar Jackson is the only quarterback the Patriots have faced who is averaging even 7 yards per attempt this season.
  • 18 - Interceptions for Jameis Winston. The turnovers are the only reason he's not a breakout star this season. 
Matchups that Matter
Projections powered by Sportsline
ATL Atlanta • #2
Age: 35 • Experience: 13 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
vs TB ATL -4.5 O/U 52
OPP VS QB
31st
PROJ PTS
27
QB RNK
8th
YTD Stats
PAYDS
2663
RUYDS
77
TD
19
INT
9
FPTS/G
22.3
CLE Cleveland • #6
Age: 25 • Experience: 3 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
vs MIA CLE -10.5 O/U 44.5
OPP VS QB
29th
PROJ PTS
21.6
QB RNK
22nd
YTD Stats
PAYDS
2394
RUYDS
77
TD
13
INT
12
FPTS/G
15
IND Indianapolis • #7
Age: 27 • Experience: 5 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ HOU HOU -3.5 O/U 45.5
OPP VS QB
27th
PROJ PTS
17.4
QB RNK
14th
YTD Stats
PAYDS
1797
RUYDS
122
TD
17
INT
4
FPTS/G
18.1
GB Green Bay • #12
Age: 36 • Experience: 16 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ SF SF -3 O/U 46
OPP VS QB
2nd
PROJ PTS
17.2
QB RNK
NR
YTD Stats
PAYDS
2718
RUYDS
109
TD
18
INT
2
FPTS/G
21.4
QB Preview
Waiver Wire Targets
Top Streamers
TEN Tennessee • #17
Age: 32 • Experience: 9 yrs.
Ownership
33%
Tannehill's matchup isn't great, but it's not enough to scare me away either. He's the one quarterback who is widely available who hasn't had stretches of terrible play this season. He's also done some damage with his legs the past two games, rushing for 75 yards against the Panthers and Chiefs.
DEN Denver • #9
Age: 27 • Experience: 5 yrs.
Ownership
12%
I actually have Driskel projected for the most Fantasy points of the guys available on the waiver wire, but his sample size is too small to feel secure about the projection. This is his easiest matchup yet and he doesn't have a phenomenal supporting cast of pass catchers. The biggest risk may be that the Lions run all over Washington, but thy haven't had much success running on anyone this season.
CLE Cleveland • #6
Age: 25 • Experience: 3 yrs.
YTD Stats
Ownership
62%
It's the Dolphins! In fairness to Mayfield, he does have multiple passing touchdowns in each of his past two games and those were against much better defenses. The Browns could beat the Dolphins solely with the run if they wanted, but this is a good spot for Mayfield to feed Odell Beckham and try to get him back on track for the stretch run.
One to Stash
CHI Chicago • #9
Age: 31 • Experience: 9 yrs.
Ownership
52%
Foles' Week 12 matchup against the Titans isn't great, but this may be the last time you sit him. This offense has pretty steadily produced borderline QB1 stats, and after the Titans the Jags face their easiest stretch of schedule starting with Tampa Bay in Week 13.
QB Preview
DFS Plays
Top Play
ATL Atlanta • #2
Age: 35 • Experience: 13 yrs.
Week 12 Prices
FanDuel
$7,900
DraftKings
$6,700
The Falcons cannot run the ball and Tampa Bay has been one of the best run defenses in the league. The Falcons throw the ball very well and the Buccaneers have allowed the second-most points to opposing quarterbacks. It's a match made in heaven.
Top Contrarian Play
DEN Denver • #9
Age: 27 • Experience: 5 yrs.
Week 12 Prices
FanDuel
$7,300
DraftKings
$5,500
We'll see if I have to change this later in the week, but Driskel's low price allows you to get closer to playing Christian McCaffrey and Michael Thomas. Hopefully he's not too popular.
QB Preview
Heath's projections

Rank

QB

FPTs

1

Matt Ryan

29.51

2

Russell Wilson

28.39

3

Lamar Jackson

28.37

4

DeShaun Watson

27.42

5

Drew Brees

25.52

6

Carson Wentz

24.28

7

Jameis Winston

23.25

8

Dak Prescott

22.68

9

Jacoby Brissett

22.59

10

Tom Brady

22.59

11

Jeff Driskel

22.49

12

Jimmy Garoppolo

22.36

13

Derek Carr

22.34

14

Ryan Tannehill

22.32

15

Aaron Rodgers

22.10

16

Baker Mayfield

21.91

17

Josh Allen

21.69

18

Mason Rudolph

21.26

19

Chase Daniel

21.01

20

Nick Foles

20.97

21

Daniel Jones

20.64

22

Sam Darnold

20.30

23

Jared Goff

19.72

24

Dwayne Haskins

17.59

25

Kyle Allen

17.11

26

Ryan Finley

16.89

27

Ryan Fitzpatrick

16.57

28

Brandon Allen

15.38

So who should you sit and start this week? And which surprising quarterback could lead you to victory? Visit SportsLine now to get Week 12 rankings for every position, plus see which QB is going to come out of nowhere to crack the top 10, all from the model that out-performed experts big time last season.