Fantasy Football is all about the matchups. Even though you drafted your team with certain hopes and intentions, your weekly lineup decisions shouldn't be determined by the order you picked your players in. You need to check who your players play and make sure you've got the right guys in -- and the wrong guys out.
It's too early to be absolutely sure which matchups will be easy and which ones will be tough, but we can take some educated guesses based on healthy personnel, defensive schemes, track records, and key details of offenses. The things we know can help us minimize the impact of the things we don't know. This should lead to better decisions being made.
We'll go through every game and highlight the players who aren't obvious starts and sits (because you don't need to be told to start Derrick Henry). You should feel more comfortable starting or sitting players based on the information given, and feeling comfortable with your Fantasy lineup before the games start is the best feeling in the world.
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Caleb Williams' play has definitely gotten better in two games, with Thomas Brown as the Bears' playcaller. Notably, he's not holding the ball as long as he used to, his average depth of throw has shrunk by over a full yard (more screens have helped), and he's completed 70.5% of his throws compared to 60.5% in his first nine outings. And last week, especially Williams made some daring, borderline dangerous throws that were just out of reach of defenders but on the money to his teammates. Lastly, it shouldn't be overlooked that the Bears got both starting tackles back in Week 11. Detroit's an aggressive defense, but they're starting to show some issues both in their pass rush and their coverage. In six games since Aidan Hutchinson was lost, they've had 10 sacks and are dead-last in time to pressure at 2.8 seconds, all while averaging a blitz at the league's highest rate. While Anthony Richardson had a poor completion percentage last week versus Detroit, it wasn't because he was off-target, it was because of some miscommunications and some drops from teammates. And even despite that shortcoming, the Lions gave up 6.8 yards after catch per completion to Colts wideouts in Week 12, and 7.1 YAC/reception in their past two games. Williams might not be a desirable Fantasy starter, but his play and this matchup does offer a shot for his receivers to post some good numbers.
Important note: The Bears defense played into overtime on Sunday, played more snaps than any other defense playing Thursday, and are now expected to be ready for an early Thursday game. I suspect the Lions will challenge them physically and ultimately overpower them with their run game.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown
STARTS: Jared Goff, David Montgomery, Lions DST
FLEX: D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen (PPR), Jameson Williams (non-PPR), Rome Odunze (PPR), D'Andre Swift (non-PPR)
SITS: Caleb Williams (No. 2 QB), Roschon Johnson (desperation RB), Cole Kmet, Bears DST
The last time the Cowboys had a run defense matchup this good, Rico Dowdle averaged 6.3 yards per carry, totaled over 100 yards, and caught a touchdown (at Atlanta in Week 9). The Giants' run defense tried to hang tough last week but ultimately gave up three rushing touchdowns. In the Giants' past four, they've let up 4.8 yards per carry and have been susceptible to zone-run schemes, which the Cowboys run a lot of. It's especially notable that offenses have averaged 29 running back rushes against the Giants in those past four, a consistent tell that teams are taking advantage of their weak run defense. But they're not the only ones who struggle with running backs -- before the Commanders' run game literally fell apart last week, the Cowboys gave up 4.6 yards per carry and a 10.1% rate of 10-plus rush yards allowed in their prior four games. If the Giants can take some pressure off of their passing game and actually run the ball, they'll stay competitive. And if they can't, the Cowboys pass rush will absolutely feast on their quarterback, just as they've done in two of three games since Micah Parsons has come back.
OBVIOUS STARTS: CeeDee Lamb
STARTS: Rico Dowdle (No. 2 RB), Malik Nabers (No. 2 WR), Cowboys DST (one-week option), Giants DST (one-week option)
FLEX: Tyrone Tracy
SITS: Cooper Rush, Tommy DeVito, Devin Singletary, Ezekiel Elliott, Jalen Tolbert, Darius Slayton, Wan'Dale Robinson, Luke Schoonmaker, Theo Johnson
Chances are the Packers will emulate what every defense does against the Dolphins and not blitz. That'll be easy for them since they blitz at the fifth-lowest rate in the league this season. But playing zone coverage should also be on the docket, something the Patriots didn't do last week and got burned by. It helps the Packers that they went with heavy zone coverage last week against the 49ers with backup QB Brandon Allen and did mostly well in not allowing big plays. That could repeat this week with Tua Tagovailoa getting the ball out super-fast (2.36 seconds on average, fastest among qualifying QBs) and not throwing it deep (7.8% deep throw rate, second-lowest behind Patrick Mahomes). He's much more passive against zone coverage, which is why I think the Packers will aim to play that more than man-to-man. If it happens, Jonnu Smith's reign of volume should continue -- he leads all Dolphins qualifying pass-catchers with a 28.2% target per route run rate against zone coverage with Tagovailoa; Tyreek Hill is third with 20.7%, and Jaylen Waddle is fourth with 14.5%.
OBVIOUS STARTS: De'Von Achane, Josh Jacobs, Tyreek Hill (top-15 WR)
STARTS: Tua Tagovailoa (low-end No. 1 QB), Jonnu Smith (top-5 TE)
FLEX: Jaylen Waddle (low-end flex)
SITS: Jordan Love (high-end No. 2 QB), Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, Tucker Kraft (desperation TE), Dontayvion Wicks, Raheem Mostert, Jaylen Wright, Chris Brooks, Packers DST, Dolphins DST
Patrick Mahomes gave two interesting thoughts in his time with the media this week. One, he admitted that in getting more reps with newer teammates, he's figuring out what they're good at and, in turn, improving his rhythm with them. He specifically mentioned DeAndre Hopkins in one-on-one matchups and Xavier Worthy as a field stretcher and an underneath target. They're worth watching. Two, when asked about what he anticipated from Isiah Pacheco's return, he said the team "obviously" has to work him back in and "not try to overdo it," adding that "it's good that we have a good room of running backs that we can kind of not make him go out there and take 30 carries or whatever it is. We can just kind of let him be who he is and make those big plays happen and then bring him along as the season goes." The game script for this matchup suggests a lot of running for the Chiefs, but I suspect we'll see Pacheco eased in, a common scenario anytime Andy Reid gets a player back on the field. It should mean one more week where Kareem Hunt is useful as a borderline, TD-dependent starter against a might-be-good Raiders run defense.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce
STARTS: Jakobi Meyers, Brock Bowers, Chiefs DST
FLEX: Kareem Hunt, DeAndre Hopkins (PPR), Ameer Abdullah (PPR)
SITS: Aidan O'Connell, Isiah Pacheco, Xavier Worthy (desperation WR), Tre Tucker, Alexander Mattison, Isiah Pacheco, Raiders DST
This is such an amazing spot for Justin Herbert. Atlanta ranks dead-last in sack rate at 2.6% and second-to-last in pass rush pressure rate at 26.6%. And they have consistently played heavy zone coverage all season long, so the Chargers know what they'll be up against. The combination of Herbert having time to throw with the Chargers run game being suspect without J.K. Dobbins should make for a good statistical outcome for the QB and his receivers.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Bijan Robinson
STARTS: Justin Herbert, Ladd McConkey, Drake London (No. 2 WR in PPR, flex in non-PPR), Will Dissly (PPR), Kyle Pitts (low-end TE)
FLEX: Darnell Mooney (low-end No. 2 WR in non-PPR)
SITS: Kirk Cousins, Gus Edwards, Kimani Vidal, Quentin Johnston (desperation WR), Ray-Ray McCloud, Chargers DST, Falcons DST
OBVIOUS STARTS: Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, George Pickens
STARTS: Chase Brown, Tee Higgins, Steelers DST
FLEX: Jaylen Warren (PPR), Najee Harris
SITS: Russell Wilson, Calvin Austin, Pat Freiermuth, Mike Gesicki, Bengals DST
OBVIOUS STARTS: Joe Mixon, Nico Collins
STARTS: Brian Thomas Jr. (low-end No. 2 WR), Evan Engram, Texans DST
FLEX: Tank Dell (low-end flex)
SITS: C.J. Stroud, Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne, Tank Bigsby, Dalton Schultz, Jaguars DST
Arizona's offensive line was a mess last week -- right tackle Jonah Williams was back after a long absence and struggled, as did left guard Evan Brown and left tackle Paris Johnson. Playing on the road a consecutive week against a Vikings defense that blitzes at the second-highest rate is a recipe for disaster. Like most QBs, Kyler Murray is much less efficient when pressured, completing just 58% of his throws for 6.3 yards per attempt and an off-target rate of 14.1%. About the only positive is that Murray scrambles for 13.6 yards per carry on average on the rare occasions he does actually get pressured and leaves the pocket (11 times this season). In other words, he runs more often when he's not pressured (some by design). He also has three rushing touchdowns when he wasn't pressured, one when he was. Lastly, the Vikings were victims to some near-INTs on dangerous throws by Caleb Williams last week -- those types of throws aren't attempted consistently by Murray and could be actual INTs this week.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Justin Jefferson
STARTS: Aaron Jones, James Conner (low-end No. 2 RB), Trey McBride, T.J. Hockenson, Vikings DST
FLEX: Marvin Harrison Jr., Jordan Addison
SITS: Sam Darnold (borderline starter), Kyler Murray, Michael Wilson, Jalen Nailor, Trey Benson (stash), Cam Akers, Cardinals DST
STARTS: Jonathan Taylor (No. 2 RB), Rhamondre Stevenson (low-end No. 2 RB)
FLEX: Michael Pittman
SITS: Anthony Richardson, Drake Maye, Hunter Henry (low-end PPR TE), Alec Pierce, Demario Douglas (desperation PPR WR), Austin Hooper, Kendrick Bourne, AD Mitchell, Antonio Gibson, Colts DST, Patriots DST
Seattle's defense has been tricky to figure out, in part because they've played so many games without their best 11 defenders on the field. But they seem to have their best group now, and improved play by cornerback Devon Witherspoon and veteran D-lineman Leonard Williams along with a shift to rookie Tyrice Knight at middle linebacker seems to have made a difference. They also morph their coverages and blitz tendencies based on who they play. Brock Purdy needed a rushing touchdown just to get to 20 Fantasy points, and Kyler Murray didn't even crack 10 last week against this unit. In those games, Purdy was blitzed nearly 40% of the time while Murray was blitzed 21% of the time, and Purdy saw more man-to-man coverage than Murray did. Rodgers has been at his worst when pressured (42.3% completion rate), frequently speeding up his throwing motion when he senses defenders nearby, so I would expect the Seahawks to bring heat like they did against Purdy. And while that might lead to more man-to-man coverage, I do think the only winnable matchup would be between Garrett Wilson if he's locked up on Riq Woolen, who has already allowed more touchdowns this season than he did last season.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Breece Hall, Kenneth Walker III (No. 2 RB)
STARTS: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Garrett Wilson (No. 2 WR), DK Metcalf
FLEX: Davante Adams
SITS: Geno Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Tyler Lockett, Zach Charbonnet, Braelon Allen, Tyler Conklin, Jets DST, Seahawks DST
When the Titans have been in competitive games, or whenever Tyjae Spears has been out, Tony Pollard has been great. But when Spears has played and/or when the Titans have fallen behind, Pollard's been a non-factor. Spears is expected back from a concussion in Week 13, which puts the prospect of a leaner workload for Pollard on the table. Washington has given up 4.5 yards per rush and three scores to running backs in their past four games, much of it to Saquon Barkley. The matchup isn't a concern for Pollard, but the workload is. Washington's offense started to look better last week and if the Titans can't corral Jayden Daniels, then Spears will be playing more in the second half. Pollard is among the risky No. 2 RBs this week.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Terry McLaurin
STARTS: Jayden Daniels, Tony Pollard (No. 2 RB), Brian Robinson Jr. (low-end No. 2 RB), Calvin Ridley, Zach Ertz
SITS: Will Levis, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (desperation WR), Tyjae Spears, Noah Brown, Chig Okonkwo, Jeremy McNichols, Commanders DST (streaming DST), Titans DST
STARTS: Baker Mayfield, Chuba Hubbard, Bucky Irving, Mike Evans, Cade Otton (borderline starter)
SITS: Bryce Young, Rachaad White, Xavier Legette, Adam Thielen, David Moore, Johnathon Brooks, Sean Tucker
OBVIOUS STARTS: Alvin Kamara, Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp
STARTS: Matthew Stafford, Taysom Hill (top-5 TE)
SITS: Derek Carr, Marquez Valdes-Scantling (desperation WR), Demarcus Robinson, Juwan Johnson, Foster Moreau, Mason Tipton, Cedrick Wilson Jr., Colby Parkinson, Rams DST, Saints DST
Philadelphia's run defense has allowed over four yards per carry to running backs in three of its past four games and with a high 40.6% 5-yard rush rate allowed to boot. That's with defensive end Brandon Graham playing -- he's out for the season with a torn triceps. It's not the news you want with Derrick Henry on deck. Could Henry be so effective, even on a short-ish week, that the Ravens won't have to throw the ball a ton to stay in the game? Philadelphia's been outstanding against the pass since their bye, only giving up a solid game statistically to Matthew Stafford last week thanks to a garbage-time touchdown. So, if it comes down to Lamar Jackson's arm, can he do well against the same defense that held Joe Burrow, Jayden Daniels, Trevor Lawrence, and Matthew Stafford until the final two minutes to under 22 Fantasy points? Jackson's legs give him the upside to have a good overall stat line, but I would guess the Ravens try to win this one through Henry.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown
STARTS: Zay Flowers (low-end No. 2 WR), Eagles DST
SITS: Mark Andrews, Dallas Goedert, Rashod Bateman (desperation WR), Justice Hill (desperation PPR RB), Kenneth Gainwell, Jahan Dotson, Diontae Johnson, Ravens DST
Brock Purdy's return is tempered by the matchup and the weather, but it's his offensive line that could prove to be the biggest issue. Not having left guard Aaron Banks is an issue, but missing stud left tackle Trent Williams has proven to be catastrophic. In two games without Williams in his career, Purdy has had 20.3 Fantasy points or fewer, throwing one touchdown in each. The whole left side of the line figures to be a problem against a Bills defense that doesn't blitz but has brought all kinds of pressure since Von Miller's been active. And it's not like Buffalo is a favorable matchup to begin with -- just four quarterbacks on the season have had 20 or more Fantasy points; two have hit 21 Fantasy points in their past three games, but that was Patrick Mahomes and Tua Tagovailoa, two guys awfully familiar with the Bills defense. Purdy, coming off of injury, isn't as familiar and will be pressured a bunch. Lastly, we're expecting cold conditions with possible snow, complicating things even more.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Josh Allen, Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle
STARTS: James Cook (No. 2 RB), Jauan Jennings, Bills DST
FLEX: Khalil Shakir, Deebo Samuel
SITS: Brandon Allen, Keon Coleman, Amari Cooper, Dawson Knox, Ray Davis, Jordan Mason, 49ers DST
STARTS: Bo Nix, Courtland Sutton, Broncos DST
FLEX: Jerry Jeudy
SITS: Jameis Winston, Elijah Moore (desperation PPR WR), Devaughn Vele (desperation PPR WR), Jerome Ford (desperation PPR RB), Nick Chubb, Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin, Audric Estime, Browns DST
