First, let's start with the running. Hill averaged 10 rush attempts per game in his four starts last year. So far this year, Jameis Winston and Trevor Siemian have combined for fewer than four attempts per game. Even if you factor in Hill's two attempts per game, that's a pretty massive swing. Of course, it may not mean fewer attempts for the running backs, because the Saints ran the ball at a 52% clip in Hill's starts. So far this year the Saints have run the ball on 46% of their offensive plays.
Obviously, more rush attempts mean fewer pass attempts, but that wasn't the only change to the Saints passing game with Hill under center. In three of his four games, Alvin Kamara had fewer than 10 receiving yards. That evened out because Hill peppered Kamara in the fourth game, but it's something to watch for. Kamara isn't playing in Week 13, but it could definitely impact the upside of Mark Ingram.
Essentially, I would view this as a downgrade for everyone on the Saints offense. But the flip side of that is that Hill is instantly the most interesting Fantasy quarterback the Saints have started this season. In leagues that reward four points per pass touchdown he's a must-start option and he's a borderline No. 1 even in a standard CBS league. He's also the top streamer in that section below.
Let's get to the rest of the Week 13 preview:
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Week 13 QB Preview
Numbers to know
- 23.1 -- Taysom Hill averaged 23.1 Fantasy points per game in his four starts last season.
- 38 -- Kyler Murray only had 38 rushing yards in his last four games when he was playing banged up. Hopefully, he's 100% and running again.
- 28.1 -- Joe Burrow is averaging fewer than 30 pass attempts per game in wins this year.
- 27.4 -- The Washington Football Team surrenders 27.4 Fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. No other team allows more than 23.
- 15 -- Only two quarterbacks have scored more than 15 Fantasy points against the Bills this season. None since Week 5.
Matchups that matter
Waiver Wire Targets
MIA Miami • #1
Age: 23 • Experience: 2 yrs.
Tagovailoa's level of play for most of the past six weeks has been really high. He has a quarterback rating over 100 in four of his past five starts.
DEN Denver • #5
Age: 29 • Experience: 8 yrs.
I don't really want to trust him at Arrowhead, but Bridgewater gets the Lions at home in Week 14.
BAL Baltimore • #8
Age: 25 • Experience: 4 yrs.
Normally you wouldn't dream of choosing a quarterback who has struggled like Jackson has the past two weeks at Pittsburgh. But this defense is just not the same as they've been and Jackson is too good to keep struggling like this. If he comes at a lower roster rate as well, bonus!
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