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USATSI

The No. 14 QB in FPPG is facing the defense that allows the third-fewest Fantasy points to opposing QBs. Seems like an easy sit right? What if I also told you that his No. 1 WR is battling an ankle injury and that this defense has already held him to single digit Fantasy points once this season. No chance you're starting him, right? What if I told you his name is Tua Tagovailoa?

It sure sounds like a hot take when you say that you would start Matthew Stafford over Tagovailoa in Week 15, but it is what it is. In the first run of my projections, the Dolphins QB came in at QB12, right behind Stafford, Justin Fields, and Jared Goff. For now, I'm projecting Tyreek Hill as active, but not fully himself. And that will make all of the difference.

Hill has accounted for 32% of his quarterbacks completions, 41.7% of his passing yards, and 50% of his touchdowns. If Hill can't play in Week 15, I would move Tagovailoa outside of my top-15 quarterbacks, possibly outside of my top 20. If we get to Friday and Hill gets in a full practice, Tagovailoa likely moves closer to QB12 in the rankings. I'm still not sure I could start him over Stafford, who has the best matchup available to a quarterback in 2023.

The start of the Fantasy playoffs tests Fantasy managers in many ways, not the least in how they handle their "stars". Tua Tagovailoa's Fantasy managers are about to feel that intensely.

  • Heath's Week 15 Previews: QB | RB | WR | TE

My full set of projections for quarterback and every other position can be found at SportsLine. Here's everything else you need to know about tight end in Week 15:

Week 15 QB Preview
QB Preview
Numbers to know
  • 9.9 -- Brock Purdy's yards per attempt is nearly up to double digits. He's now a top-five Fantasy QB and should be the clear favorite to win the MVP.
  • 12.9% -- Joshua Dobbs had the sixth-highest off-target throw rate in the NFL. Nick Mullens is unlikely to be a downgrade as a passer and could be an upgrade.
  • 25.92 -- The Commanders have allowed opposing QBs to averaged 25.92 FPPG this season. The Eagles are the only other defense surrendering more than 22 FPPG to QBs this season.
  • 24.2 -- Russell Wilson is averaging 24.2 rushing yards per game. His highest average since 2020 and second-highest since 2017. The Lions have given up 20 or more rushing yards to a QB six times this season.
  • 7.09 -- Tua Tagovailoa is averaging 7.09 yards per attempt on passes to players other than Tyreek Hill. He has averaged 11.68 on throws to Hill. Hill's status will determine his QB's ranking.
QB Preview
Matchups that matter
Matchups that Matter
Projections powered by Sportsline
MIA Miami • #1
Age: 26 • Experience: 5 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
vs NYJ MIA -9 O/U 39.5
OPP VS QB
30th
PROJ PTS
17.4
QB RNK
12th
YTD Stats
PAYDS
3697
RUYDS
55
TD
24
INT
10
FPTS/G
20.6
JAC Jacksonville • #16
Age: 25 • Experience: 4 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
vs BAL BAL -3.5 O/U 43.5
OPP VS QB
9th
PROJ PTS
17.4
QB RNK
13th
YTD Stats
PAYDS
3261
RUYDS
259
TD
21
INT
10
FPTS/G
19.7
CIN Cincinnati • #6
Age: 28 • Experience: 2 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
vs MIN CIN -3.5 O/U 39
OPP VS QB
21st
PROJ PTS
20.3
QB RNK
17th
YTD Stats
PAYDS
924
RUYDS
77
TD
7
INT
2
FPTS/G
16.7
DET Detroit • #16
Age: 30 • Experience: 9 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
vs DEN DET -5 O/U 47.5
OPP VS QB
13th
PROJ PTS
19.4
QB RNK
14th
YTD Stats
PAYDS
3449
RUYDS
21
TD
23
INT
10
FPTS/G
19.7
KC Kansas City • #15
Age: 29 • Experience: 8 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ NE KC -9.5 O/U 37.5
OPP VS QB
32nd
PROJ PTS
20.2
QB RNK
6th
YTD Stats
PAYDS
3398
RUYDS
339
TD
23
INT
11
FPTS/G
21.6
LAR L.A. Rams • #9
Age: 36 • Experience: 16 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
vs WAS LAR -6.5 O/U 49
OPP VS QB
23rd
PROJ PTS
22.5
QB RNK
7th
YTD Stats
PAYDS
3062
RUYDS
68
TD
19
INT
9
FPTS/G
19.1
GB Green Bay • #10
Age: 26 • Experience: 5 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
vs TB GB -3 O/U 41.5
OPP VS QB
17th
PROJ PTS
20.2
QB RNK
9th
YTD Stats
PAYDS
3084
RUYDS
233
TD
25
INT
11
FPTS/G
21.3
ARI Arizona • #1
Age: 27 • Experience: 6 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
vs SF SF -13.5 O/U 48
OPP VS QB
25th
PROJ PTS
14.3
QB RNK
16th
YTD Stats
PAYDS
864
RUYDS
106
TD
6
INT
2
FPTS/G
19.3
QB Preview
Waiver Wire Targets
Adds/Streamers (QB Preview)
LV Las Vegas • #15
Age: 28 • Experience: 6 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
vs PIT IND -2.5 O/U 42
OPP VS QB
20th
QB RNK
20th
ROSTERED
57%
YTD Stats
PAYDS
2524
RUYDS
57
TD
14
INT
8
FPTS/G
12.8
Matthew Stafford is available in 19% of leagues, he's a must-add, must-start QB this week. Jake Browning is available in 32% of leagues. I would start him over both Trevor Lawrence and Kyler Murray. But strictly based on our rule of guys below 65% roster rate, Gardner Minshew remains the best streaming option available.
QB Preview
DFS Plays
Contrarian DFS Play
Projections powered by Sportsline
BUF Buffalo • #17
Age: 28 • Experience: 7 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
vs DAL BUF -2.5 O/U 50.5
OPP VS QB
1st
PROJ PTS
24.9
QB RNK
1st
YTD Stats
PAYDS
3447
RUYDS
374
TD
35
INT
14
FPTS/G
27.4
I don't believe the Bills Week 14 win over the Chiefs was as much of a statement win as it was an introduction to the statement that is coming. I expect the Bills to win out behind their superstar QB, who is my top QB on the slate by a full two points this week. Allen is the clear top QB in Fantasy and the price gap between him and everyone else isn't big enough this week.
QB Preview
Heath's projections

My full set of Week 15 Fantasy Football projections for every position are now available on SportsLine. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 15. Projected stats for all starting quarterbacks are available, so be sure to check out the full set of projections at SportsLine.