Opportunity matters more than efficiency at pretty much every position in Fantasy Football, but maybe nowhere more than running back. Especially in PPR. And Saquon Barkley has been a shining example of that over the past month.
Despite a paltry 3.8 yards per carry and an abysmal 3.8 yards per target over the past five weeks, Barkley has scored more Fantasy points since Week 11 than all but 11 running backs. Even on a per-game basis, Barkley 12.8 PPR FPPG makes him a top 20 back in that stretch. This comes in a stretch where Barkley has as many touchdowns (one) as fumbles.
Now, it's fair to recall we were making this same argument for Myles Gaskin a few weeks ago and now Gaskin has apparently been replaced by Duke Johnson. Unfortunately for Gaskin, he does not carry the same reputation as Barkley.
The point of all this? There are at least a dozen uncertain backfields as we head into the Fantasy semi-finals, and while a lot of those backs may be producing better and on better offenses, I won't be able to start any of them over Barkley against an Eagles defense playing on a short week. While I may not rank him as high as he is projected below, he's still a must-start running back in PPR scoring.
Let's get to the rest of the Week 16 RB Preview:
Week 16 RB Preview
Who's Out
The following players are not being projected to play Week 16 at this time. Here's what it means:
 
Joe Mixon
RB
HOU
Houston
• #28
Age: 30 • Experience: 9 yrs.
If Mixon can't go, Samaje Perine is a must-start running back with top-10 upside.
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BUF
Buffalo
• #5
Age: 31 • Experience: 7 yrs.
Ronald Jones will be the top waiver add this week and a top-15 back in all formats.
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Numbers to know
- 31 -- Targets for Barkely since Week 11. Only Leonard Fournette has more.
- 90 -- Touches for Ronald Jones in four games without Fournette last year.
- 21 -- James Robinson tied his season high with 21 touches in his first game without Urban Meyer.
- 59% -- Javonte Williams' snap share in Week 15, his highest in a game that Melvin Gordon also played.
- 68% -- Clyde Edwards-Helaire ran a route on 68% of Patrick Mahomes' drop backs in Week 15. As shorthanded as they may be in the passing game, he should see more targets.
- 93% -- Devin Singletary played a season-high 93% of the Bills' offensive snaps in Week 16. He has a tough matchup, but that type of role would make him an RB2. Just watch to see if Zack Moss is inactive.
- 0 -- We have zero idea what is going on with Austin Ekeler, who was reportedly headed to the COVID IR but has not been added as of Wednesday morning.
Matchups that matter
 
KC
Kansas City
• #23
Age: 27 • Experience: 6 yrs.
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Jeff Wilson
RB
MIA
Miami
• #20
Age: 30 • Experience: 8 yrs.
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PIT
Pittsburgh
• #84
Age: 35 • Experience: 13 yrs.
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NO
New Orleans
• #26
Age: 28 • Experience: 4 yrs.
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TEN
Tennessee
• #35
Age: 27 • Experience: 5 yrs.
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Duke Johnson
RB
BUF
Buffalo
• #22
Age: 33 • Experience: 8 yrs.
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Waiver Wire Targets
 
Ronald Jones
RB
DAL
Dallas
• #32
Age: 29 • Experience: 6 yrs.
Of all the potential injury replacements, Jones appears to be the most likely to get a full workload. There are some questions about his role in the passing game, but Ke'Shawn Vaughn was miserable last week.
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CIN
Cincinnati
• #34
Age: 31 • Experience: 10 yrs.
I'm less certain Mixon will miss Week 16 than Fournette, but Perine has the same kind of upside as Jones if he does.
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DET
Detroit
• #38
Age: 30 • Experience: 6 yrs.
Jackson is a low-end No. 2 running back without Ekeler because of uncertainty about workload and whether he'd be used in short yardage. But both he and Joshua Kelley are adds.
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Duke Johnson
RB
BUF
Buffalo
• #22
Age: 33 • Experience: 8 yrs.
It's a miserable matchup, but Johnson looked like clearly the best back in Miami.
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WAS
Washington
• #24
Age: 30 • Experience: 7 yrs.
Reynolds can still be a good flex with Jamaal Williams back, but his value would be crushed if D'Andre Swift also returns.
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SF
San Francisco
• #31
Age: 28 • Experience: 6 yrs.
Herbert, and backs like him, should be filling your bench spots, just in case they end up with a feature role in Week 17.
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DFS Plays
Ronald Jones
RB
DAL
Dallas
• #32
Age: 29 • Experience: 6 yrs.
Yes, everyone is going to play Jones if Fournette is out. No, I'm not brave enough to fade him at a high roster rate.
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KC
Kansas City
• #23
Age: 27 • Experience: 6 yrs.
Edwards-Helaire has been a disappointment, but this is a smash spot. At home, against a bad run defense and a worse offense, possibly without the team's top two targets. He should see 20-plus touches, win or lose.
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Heath's Projections
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