I came into draft season concerned about three receivers on the wrong side of 30. Through four weeks Keenan Allen, Davante Adams, Mike Evans and even Adam Thielen have made that seem silly. I'm not yet convinced Evans and Thielen can keep this up all year, but with the injury to Mike Williams, I am all in on Allen.
Allen probably won't be quite this good rest of season. After all, he's averaging a career-best 10.3 yards per target and he's caught an insane 82.1% of his targets. No one does that over an entire season. But with Kellen Moore calling plays, Justin Herbert throwing the football, and Williams out for the year, Allen could see major efficiency regression and still be a top five wide receiver. In fact, you should expect him to be a top five wide receiver as long as he stays healthy. I'm not selling a top-five wide receiver based on a perceived injury risk, especially when Allen had played at least 16 games in four of the past six seasons.
Kellen Moore is going to draw up a minimum of 600 pass attempts and Allen is likely to gobble up close to a 30% target share. That math simple enough for you? Even at least year's efficiency, Allen has a legitimate shot at 130 catches for 1,400 yards. Exactly who are you going to sell that for? Ja'Marr Chase with a lame QB? A running back? I'd rather ride it out with Allen, though as you'll see in the waiver wire section below, I'm also picking up his teammates.
Adam Thielen is close to a must-start if Andy Dalton starts Week 4.
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Numbers to Know
35.9% -- Rashee Rice has been targeted on 35% of his routes. Among players who have run at least 39 routes, only Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams have been targeted at a higher rate.
23.6% -- Tank Dell leads the Texans with a 23.6% target share the past two weeks.
3.45 -- Mike Evans' 3.45 yards per route run trails only Tyreek Hill.
Moore's roster rate is going the other direction, but I've been pleased with his involvement in the passing game and believe a big game is coming. If the Ravens secondary doesn't get healthy, this may be the week. Moore is actually tied with Amari Cooper for the team lead in target share at 25%.
It's slim pickings on the wide receiver waiver wire now that Tank Dell and Justin Palmer have been scooped up. Dell's teammate Robert Woods has at least 12 PPR Fantasy points in two of three games. While he doesn't have much upside, his targets alone mean he should be rostered in more than 17% of leagues. In a three-receiver league with a flex, he's a good PPR flex.
Rice has performed extremely well when he's on the field and no Chiefs wide receiver has stepped up as a true No. 1. It's wide open for the rookie, who just played a career-high 51% of the snaps. An island game in Week 4 against the Jets could make him the most popular waiver add next week. He's an excellent beat the waiver wire candidate.
I expect a high-volume game from Matthew Stafford and a rebound for Puka Nacua against a Colts secondary that isn't near as good as their run defense. Last week was his "down" week and he scored 12 PPR Fantasy points. Somehow, he's the No. 6 wide receiver in Fantasy and he hasn't even scored his first touchdown yet.
I legitimately believe that Pickens is a borderline No. 1 wide receiver for as long as Diontae Johnson is out, and I'm not sure you can put the cat back in the bag at that point. The Texans secondary doesn't scare me, but I do worry a little bit that the Texans pass rush turns this into a run-heavy game for Pittsburgh. Still, I love Pickens' upside in GPPs.
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Heath's Projections
My full set of Week 4 Fantasy football projections for every position are now available on SportsLine. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 4. Projected stats for all starting wide receivers are available, so be sure to check out the full set of projections at SportsLine.
