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Often we must preach patience with rookie wide receivers. That's because first-year players have been known to start the year very slow and finish as league winners. We have seen it over and over again. We did not see it with Malik Nabers and Marvin Harrison Jr. They looked like league winners almost immediately. But heading into Monday Night Football, they aren't the only rookie wide receivers showing out in Week 4. Brian Thomas Jr., Xavier Legette, Ladd McConkey, and Xavier Worthy all rank as top 24 wide receivers for the week. They're the biggest positive story of Week 4 and they're all moving up in the projections and rankings for future weeks.

Here come the rookie WRs

Way-too-early Week 5 projections have Thomas ranked as the third-highest rookie wide receiver, at WR25. He ranks second on the Jaguars with 21.3% target share and his 2.37 yards per route rune is a full yard better than anyone else on the team. There is a real chance he's just getting started and ends up closer to 25% target share in the second half of the season. There's also a little risk that when Evan Engram comes back, Thomas sees his target share shrink. We aren't projecting Engram to return in Week 5, yet.

Legette is next up behind Thomas, at WR37, but I might still be too low on him. That's because it's only been one week without Adam Thielen, but Legette saw a 25% target share in that one week and turned that volume into 19 PPR Fantasy points. Unlike Thomas, I can't see Legette taking over the WR1 role because Diontae Johnson is there. But I can see Andy Dalton supporting Johnson as a WR1 and Legette as a WR3. The risk for Legette is that Bryce Young might get to start again. Thankfully, we don't think that is a risk for Week 5.

Worthy is more of a hope than a projection. While we did see him scored a long touchdown in Week 5, he still only saw a 14% target share in a game that Rashee Rice left very early. He's now clearly their most talented wide receiver, but he's also still a rookie. The Chiefs may need to use their bye week to get this offense on track, so Worthy remains in boom-bust flex territory for Week 5. But Worthy's rest of season projection certainly increases due to the current lack of target competition.

McConkey doesn't show up in the Week 5 projections because he is on bye. But it's still worth noting that he leads the Chargers with a 26.7% target share for the season. He also leads all wide receivers on the team with 2.10 yards per route run. Don't be surprised if he's ranked as a top 36 wide receiver when Week 6 rolls around. 

Travis Kelce is back, Patrick Mahomes is not

No matter how long Rice is out, we won't project him for Week 5, which means Kelce gets a 20% target share boost and is once again a tight end we want to start, not just one we're starting out of obligation. Kelce saw his target share spike to 32.1% in Week 4, and no other Chief was above 14%. The flip side is that Mahomes once again has one of the worst receiving corps in the NFL and may not project as a top-12 option. I am not to the point of dropping Mahomes yet, but I completely understand if you want to try to find someone to stream over him in Week 5.

More passing for the Indianapolis Colts if Joe Flacco starts

We don't know for sure that Anthony Richardson will miss Week 5 but he was ruled out with a hip injury early in Week 4 and we won't rank Richardson at the start of the week. What we do know for sure is that an offense led by Joe Flacco is going to throw more than an offense led by Richardson, and likely more effectively too. The biggest winners in early Week 5 projections will be Jonathan Taylor (more dump offs from a less mobile passer), Josh Downs and Michael Pittman (better accuracy on intermediate targets). I'll project a 10% increase in pass attempts and an increase in catch rate as well for the pass catchers. Of course, don't get married to those changes because Richardson could return in Week 5. Either way, Downs needs to be added off the waiver wire.

The demise of D'Andre Swift was greatly exaggerated

Last week in this space I wrote about the increased competition for Swift, and that's still true. But by the end of the week the narrative had turned into Swift losing his RB1 job. The truth turned out to be that Khalil Herbert lost his RB2 job. Swift handled more than half of the Bears rush attempts in Week 4 and led the team in total targets. He produced 165 total yards and a season-high 29.5 PPR Fantasy points. You can't take those points with you into Week 5 but you can take solace in the fact that Swift is still the lead back in Chicago and with four teams on a bye, likely a starting running back in your Fantasy league as well. 

Jayden Reed looks like a WR1

Reed has now played two games this season with Jordan Love. In those two games he's combined for 11 catches for 277 yards and two touchdowns. Christian Watson left this game with an ankle injury, which should clear up any playing time questions, at least in the short term. Expect Reed to be ranked as a must-start option for as long as he stays healthy. 

While we're here, we should mention the guy who led the Packers in targets in Week 4, Dontayvion Wicks. Wicks will be one of the top adds on the waiver wire. He's been outstanding when he's been on the field, but needed an injury to be a full time player again. The 13 targets he saw in Week 4 mean a lot more than the two touchdowns he scored for future projections. In Week 5 I'm projecting Reed for a 19% target share and Wicks for 18%. Due to the efficiency of this pass offense, they're both startable for as long as Watson is out.

Josh Jacobs doesn't project as a workhorse

In Week 4 Jacobs had a 47% rush share. In the past two weeks he's only handled 41% of the team's rush attempts. You would like to think that's just a blip but with Matt LaFleur's history of running back by committee, that's hard to believe. Also, Emanuel Wilson has been a very good RB2, averaging yards per carry similar to that of Jacobs. While I do think Jacobs will eventually get in the end zone, LaFleur also has a history of a high pass rate in the red zone. It doesn't not appear that paying Jacobs is going to change those tendencies.

It's time to take the Mark Andrews blinders off

This week I ranked Kelce, Andrews, and Sam LaPorta as top 12 tight ends solely because of what they had done prior to 2024. Kelce rewarded that choice, Andrews certainly did not. He now has a target share 8.7% for the season and just posted his second goose egg in a row. Isaiah Likely has run five fewer routes this year and earned twice as many targets. This offense is running through Derrick Henry, Lamar Jackson, and Zay Flower predominantly and Andrews isn't even the fourth option at this point. I'm trying to hold him this week but there's no chance I'm starting him.