A new slate of injuries brings a new slate of start/sit debates and we're here to answer them all for every single matchup on the slate. There are glaring Week 6 examples of players you should start and sit. There are also examples of sleepers who could provide unexpected production and big names who could flop based on these Week 6 matchups. Every week we'll break down every game on the slate and pinpoint the players you need to know in every matchup.
The best part is that you get to have a say in who makes this story every week! Follow me on Twitter and look for my weekly #SSSB polls to help me choose who I analyze.
All lines from Caesars Sportsbook.
As long as the Dolphins are without DeVante Parker (and they're definitely without Will Fuller), Gesicki is basically a must-start tight end. He had an 18% target share last week and really had just five catchable targets from Jacoby Brissett. The good news is that Brissett still clearly looks his way and should find the matchup against Jacksonville favorable just as the Broncos, Bengals and Titans found the matchup favorable for their tight ends over the past four weeks.
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Waddle's got a favorable matchup versus a squad that's allowed over 200 yards to wide receivers in four of five weeks. Of course, Waddle had a fantastic matchup last week and came up short thanks to a season-low two receptions on six targets. He had two passes bounce off his hands, one for an interception, and Waddle may have seen a volume crunch because the Buccaneers actually did a decent job of focusing on him. We knew last week the Dolphins would likely play from behind; this week it's nowhere close to as certain. It means Waddle might stay in this volume-dependent zone, and I can't say for sure the Dolphins will need to throw as much as they have been. Tack on a target share that's plummeted to 15% or fewer of Brissett's throws in the past two weeks, and you've got a rookie receiver who should only start if you're absolutely desperate.
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In his second game with the Jaguars, Arnold tied a career-high with 73% of the snaps (as many as Laviska Shenault in Week 5) and notched a career-best eight targets, tied for the team lead. While these aspects are great, it's still worth noting Arnold fumbled his first catch (returned for a touchdown), had a bunch of short check-down and screen targets from Trevor Lawrence and was rarely elusive. It's too soon to say he's a fixture in the Jaguars passing game -- his Week 5 numbers were great, but he's never been a consistent contributor and, technically speaking, is on his third team this year. With a number of start-able tight ends unavailable this week, Arnold qualifies as a low-end Fantasy option who's safer in PPR than non-PPR. He feels a bit safer than streamers like Ricky Seals-Jones and Mo Alie-Cox, but make no mistake he's a streamer himself
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The Ravens probably figured out last week that their running backs leave a lot to be desired. But I couldn't help but notice Devonta Freeman working in the fourth-quarter hurry-up offense, then giving way back to Latavius Murray in overtime when they weren't up against the clock. Murray is clearly an inefficient touchdown-or-bust runner who should continue dropping playing time to others in Baltimore (and potentially to Freeman before anyone else). The Chargers sport a bottom-10 rush defense in terms of Fantasy points allowed but even they should be able to keep Murray from gashing them.
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Last week Darnold struggled under the Eagles' pass rush pressure, leading to three bad interceptions, a handful of missed throws and a lack of rushing success near the goal line. His offensive line did him no favors, turning in the fourth game of five this year where they've allowed a pressure rate of at least 32.6% of pass snaps. That's brutal. Minnesota ranks third in defensive pressure rate and second in the NFL in sacks (17), so it's to be expected that Darnold will again have to throw quick and throw accurately. After last week, it's hard to trust him coming through, especially since the Vikes have given up one passing touchdown in their past 12 quarters.
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Cousins' downturn over the past two weeks has come in lockstep with Adam Thielen's. Thielen scored in his first three games and Cousins was money for Fantasy in them; in Weeks 4 and 5, Thielen totaled five receptions for 86 scoreless yards and Cousins fell below 16 Fantasy points each game. Last week specifically Cousins didn't look Thielen's way much until the final drive of the game when Thielen had both of his receptions against soft zone coverage. It seems simple enough for the Vikings to let Cousins throw more and target Thielen frequently, which is something they've usually done. A bounce-back game for Thielen would help Cousins, but Carolina's pass defense has held four straight opponents (including Dak Prescott and Jalen Hurts) to under 200 pass yards each. Only Prescott had multiple passing scores. Cousins is always susceptible to pressure and Carolina's wily pass rush is sure to challenge him. Consider Cousins among the low-end starters you'd use this week, but not ahead of Joe Burrow or any other reputable starter.
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The line wants us to believe: The Patriots can score more than 20 points. They haven't been able to do that in three of four games this season, but their implied team total is 24.25 points. New England found 25 points against the Jets thanks to four interceptions. Houston's squad was squashed last week but it's played relatively tough otherwise and might find ways to stay close. The Patriots have won by 10-plus points in just five of their last 20 games including that Jets game.
The Bengals are in the bottom-10 in time of possession (28:57) and pass plays per game (56.5% pass), and bottom-5 in total plays per game (57.0). This trifecta doesn't help the passing offense in terms of volume, which is exactly half of Higgins' equation for Fantasy success. Last week he had a solid 18% target share from Joe Burrow, but that's way down from the 26% he had in Weeks 1 and 2. That was in a high-scoring matchup with the Packers -- this week figures to be more of a ball-control type of plan against a Lions offense that's averaged 16.3 points per game in its past four. The other half of Higgins' game that helps in Fantasy is touchdown scoring, of which Higgins has only done in the red zone through his pro career. Burrow currently ranks 29th in red-zone pass attempts this year in large part because the Bengals rank tied for last in red-zone drives (10). Detroit has somehow allowed just 13 red-zone drives through five weeks, seventh-best in football.
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So far this year, Boyd has seen at least seven targets in games in which the Bengals were trailing in. He scored to help Cincy build a lead against the Steelers in Week 3, but it was on a funky play where he bounced off defenders and scored from 17 yards out. The Lions have hung around with many of their opponents but they shouldn't have the lead and force Burrow to throw a bunch in the second half. I'd keep Boyd on the bench with the idea of using him in Week 7 when the Bengals play in Baltimore.
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With Damien Williams not expected to play, the rookie stands at the forefront of a Bears offense that's averaged 24.4 RB rushes per game and 3.2 RB receptions per game. Herbert got a big dose of work in tandem with Williams last week, rushing for 75 yards on 18 carries. Almost half of his carries and just over a quarter of his yards came in the fourth quarter with the Bears nursing a one-score lead. He only ran eight routes (no targets) but was involved this preseason in the pass game (caught 5 of 6 targets, four from Fields). More importantly, his pass protection last week was good, so he could see three-down work. Overall, Herbert looked like a solid zone-scheme runner with some speed. There's a pretty good chance Herbert leads the Bears run game against a Packers defense yielding 4.0 yards per carry to backs on the season with five total touchdowns (three rushing) allowed in its past three games. I would cautiously start him as a low-end No. 2 running back or high-end non-PPR flex ahead of any running back I had workload concerns about (James Conner or Jamaal Williams to name two).
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For the fourth straight week, Mooney picked up at least 20% of the Bears' targets while Robinson's 20% target share in Week 5 was his highest in Justin Fields' three starts. Mooney continued to run routes further downfield than Robinson, though their average target depths were basically the same (8.8 to 8.4). And finally, last week the Bears were able to win without throwing very much -- that figures to change in a matchup against their bitter rivals. Quarterbacks are averaging 35.0 pass attempts per game against the Packers, which is pretty close to league average but a full 15 attempts more than Fields has thrown in a single game. Maybe that passing volume benefits Robinson and finally gives him another game with more than four receptions, but it's Mooney who has more pop in his wheels and can challenge a Packers zone-friendly secondary downfield.
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Cooks wasn't double-teamed much by the Patriots last week, making his five-target outing all the more perplexing. Bank on a bounce-back this week against the Colts, whose already shaky secondary might be down to backups at safety and at the outside corners. Tack on Indy's low-pressure pass rush (25.3% ranks second-worst in football) and Davis Mills should have time to get reacquainted with Cooks downfield. This duo belongs in some DFS tournament lineups.
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There's a better chance this game turns into a modest shootout than there is the Colts blowing out the Texans. Indy's played one blowout this year -- at Miami -- and even then it took a late touchdown for the Colts to truly put the game away. Wentz has played really well the past two weeks, perhaps a sign he's begun to finally feel comfortable behind an improving offensive line. The Texans pass rush is just as weak as the Colts', giving Wentz the chance to make plays downfield. He's a terrific option to use as a Russell Wilson replacement even if he doesn't have a high ceiling.
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Since Week 2, Pittman is tied for seventh in the NFL with 39 targets. That alone makes him appealing in PPR formats as a heavy volume getter. His timing with Carson Wentz has improved quite a bit and he flashed his ability to gain yards after the catch on two plays last week against the Ravens. Houston is allowing a 69.8% catch rate to the opposition but they've consistently done a nice job of limiting them after the catch. It's partially helped in preventing any touchdowns to wideouts over the last four weeks, a pretty impressive stat. Still, receivers have come through for over 200 yards against the Texans in 3 of 5 games; only the Browns (without Odell Beckham) and Patriots were held below that number. If Wentz is in a position to throw 30 times like 4 of 5 passers against Houston, Pittman should have a floor of 80 yards or so on seven catches. That's great for PPR and not terribly shabby in non-PPR as a flex.
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If you've paid any attention to Clyde Edwards-Helaire, you would know Williams had already been siphoning red-zone and some passing downs in the Chiefs offense. After Edwards-Helaire's injury last week, Williams played 76% of the snaps including all four of the Chiefs' snaps inside of 10 yards and 3 of 4 plays on third/fourth downs. It would be a major surprise to see Jerick McKinnon shift significantly into either of those roles, or even take on a sizable amount of the rushing work. Although he's never started an NFL game nor had 15-plus touches in a regular-season game, Williams is on the brink of accomplishing both against a Washington squad that's given up seven total touchdowns to running backs (and over 115 total yards to running backs per game) in its last three games. A patient cut-back runner with good hands, Williams deserves credit as a low-end No. 2 Fantasy running back.
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Heinicke won't win any prizes for being an optimal passer. Last week he was off-target and slow to throw the ball, but he's willing to throw deep and into tight windows. If he were playing even a so-so defense, he couldn't be a recommended option. But the Chiefs rank second-worst in yards after the catch per reception allowed, 13th-worst in pass rush pressure rate, and fifth-worst in red-zone efficiency (a red-zone touchdown allowed on 77.3% of allowed drives). Kansas City has also given up over 30 Fantasy points to four straight quarterbacks, but those were much better passers than Heinicke. The Chiefs also play the third-most man coverage so far this season, and Heinicke decimated man coverage against another bad defense, Atlanta, two weeks ago. You're taking a risk starting Heinicke, but it's one that has a good amount of upside because of Heinicke's fearless nature (which includes his willingness to run) as well as the likelihood he'll have to throw a lot as the Football Team plays from behind.
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If you're starting Booker, you're counting on him having solid production and a touchdown via a large workload (over 15 touches). Given the opportunity to do that in 2020 with Las Vegas, he collected 51 total yards on 17 scoreless touches. His prior start before then was in 2016 with Denver. Booker has three career games with over 100 total yards, none since October of 2018. He's a physical player, as evidenced on both of his short-yardage touchdowns last week. But elusive he's not, nor did he benefit from his O-line last week, two combined factors in his 0.69 yards before contact per rush, good for 56th best among running backs in Week 5. The Rams have been a mixed bag against running backs, giving up over 100 yards and a score to David Montgomery and 170 rush yards and two scores to the Cardinals duo. In their other three games against the Colts, Bucs and Seahawks, they've held opposing backs to under 3.5 yards per carry with no rushing touchdowns. I do like him ahead of Khalil Herbert, but not Darrel Williams.
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In Week 4, Toney flashed thanks to his instant quickness and speed. In Week 5, he made five explosive plays of over 15 yards including four over 25 yards. On two of them, he reeled in deep throws on contested catches thanks to incredible concentration. It's proof he's more than just a gadget or short-area receiver, and the Giants showed us they love him by getting him a 23% target share in Week 4 and a 34% target share in Week 5. Without Kenny Golladay in the lineup, bank on Toney remaining a key figure, even against a good zone-heavy coverage defense like the Rams. Of the 19 targets Toney has seen against zone, he's caught 15 for 13.4 yards per catch and 7.67 yards after catch per reception with five explosive plays (including three last week). Toney is good enough to trust as a No. 2 receiver in PPR and is more of a high-end flex in non-PPR.
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This isn't an easy matchup for the Cardinals run game, nor is it easy to trust Edmonds after an uncharacteristic showing in Week 5. Against the Niners, a solid run defense, Edmonds totaled season-lows in touches (nine), catches (three) and total yards (34) with a fumble. In each of his prior four, Edmonds had been good for at least 13 touches, at least four receptions and at least 75 yards. Austin Ekeler spiked the Browns last week for multiple touchdowns and over 100 yards, and yet they're still fifth-best in Fantasy points allowed to running backs, helped by seeing the fourth-fewest targets per game. I'm nervous to pencil in 13 touches for Edmonds, and I know James Conner will continue stealing touchdown opportunities. The ceiling is low for Edmonds, making him a bottom-of-the-barrel No. 2 running back in PPR leagues and an undesirable flex in half- and non-PPR.
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Las Vegas has allowed at least one touchdown to a running back in every game this season. It's also ceded at least 135 rush yards to backs in its past two games including to Chicago's backups. We've started to see small signs of a breakout from Williams courtesy of a 49-yard run last week and three receptions in each of his past three games. He and Gordon are effectively splitting reps of all downs, distances and locations close to 50-50, so it's very possible one is randomly better than the other. But given the matchup, not to mention the issues Las Vegas had to deal with this week, it wouldn't be a surprise to see both have good games. Williams' recent efficiency spike gives him a slight nod.
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Part-time and full-time slot receivers have hammered the Cowboys defense this year. High-profile guys like Chris Godwin, Keenan Allen and D.J. Moore each had over 100 yards, and even rookie Kadarius Toney went for nearly 200 on his own last week. In fact, Dallas has given up over 200 yards passing just to receivers in four of five games. No one should expect 100 yards from Meyers -- he's not quite as good as those other receivers -- but you can be sure the Patriots will notice where the Cowboys are leaking on defense and attack. The Patriots also figure to not play with a lead for much of the game, pushing targets into Meyers' lap. He's had at least 10 targets in two of his past three.
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