Fantasy Football Week 7: Contrarian DFS plays for FanDuel and DraftKings
You can't fade Nick Chubb, so who do you play with him?
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Some weeks it's harder to peel yourself away from the chalk than others. This is one of those weeks.
With the Carlos Hyde trade, Nick Chubb became an auto-play and his low price made it far easier for people to fit in the clear No. 1 back on the slate, Todd Gurley. This could lead to a situation where we get 30 percent ownership on the combination of Gurley and Chubb. That means two things:
- It's going to be really hard to stand out in a tournament if you play those two.
- It's going to be near impossible to profit if you fade them and they do what we expect.
Whether you're taking that risk or not, you're going to need some contrarian in your lineup. Here you go.
Blake Bortles faces a Texans defense that is allowing 8.2 yards per attempt and nearly 280 yards per game through the air. At the same time it has held opponents to less than 4 yards per carry.
All the talk about Jacksonville this week is about the Carlos Hyde trade, but it doesn't sound like that's going to have much affect on Week 7. Historically, when Leonard Fournette has missed time this has become a more pass-happy offense and the Jags are facing a defense that invites you to sling it around.
With everyone playing Gurley and Chubb, you're going to see a lot of the mid-range running backs underowned. This includes T.J. Yeldon, Latavius Murray and Adrian Peterson. Peterson projects to be the lowest owned even though he may have the most upside.
This game between Washington and Dallas profiles to be a low-scoring slugfest. Those types of games are generally bad for Fantasy, but maybe not for Peterson. It's not hard to imagine him getting 20-plus carries, and with Chris Thompson out, he could also see work in the passing game.
Dede Westbrook is a great stacking play with Bortles, but he's not a bad stand-alone play either. In fact, all of the Jacksonville receivers are in play. Because of the difficulty in projecting their targets on a week-to-week basis, you can't trust any of these guys in cash games, but they're excellent boom-or-bust tournament plays.
I prefer Westbrook because he's the best receiver on the team. His 71 percent catch rate leads Jacksonville and his 14.4 Y/R is better than anyone with at least 12 targets.
Chester Rogers may have been the chalk this week if it wasn't for the return of T.Y. Hilton. I'm just not sure it should change all that much. The Colts will be without Ryan Grant, so there are more than enough targets to go around. Add in that Hilton is in his first game back and facing off against Tre'Davious White, and Rogers may just be the best Colts receiver today. But you don't have to believe that to play him at this price and ownership.
Who should you sit and start? And what shocking QB could win you Week 7? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy football rankings for every single position, and see which shocking QB finishes in the top 5 this week, all from the model that out-performed experts big time last season.
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