When you look at the running back projections for Week 7 at the bottom of this article, you are going to see names you never expected to see in places you never expected to see them. D'Ernest Johnson and Khalil Herbert in the top 12. J.D. McKissic and Devonta Freeman just outside that. Even after last week's debacle, Devontae Booker inside the top 20. This deserves some discussion.
There's always a disparity between projections and rankings, and this week will be no different. In fact, this week the disparity may be even bigger. That's because we have so many unknowns. The touch split in Seattle, Cleveland, Baltimore, Washington, and Miami is a complete guessing game. Things are only slightly more clear in Atlanta and Philadelphia. And if Damien Williams comes back we can add Chicago to the list. That's more than a fourth of the teams playing this week and we haven't even mentioned Bill Belichick or Kyle Shanahan yet.
So the rankings are going to value certainty a little bit more. Or at least our perception of certainty. The rankings (and the projections) are also going to change a lot as the week goes on. What you'll see below is a glimpse of what is to come, but you'll want to wait until Sunday morning to make your lineup decisions. That's always true, but it's more true this week.
Of course, you need to make a decision about who to pick up before then. And my waiver wire priorities are below to help you do just that.
Johnson will share the backfield with Demetric Felton, but Felton is more of a receiver than a runner; he doesn't even have a carry yet. That should leave Johnson in line for 15-plus carries and a couple of targets on a short week against an average Broncos run defense. In a normal week that would make him a low-end No. 2 running back. This week that makes him close to must-start. Felton should also be added in PPR leagues.
If you told me for sure that Latavius Murray was out, I would make Freeman my top priority. And if you (somehow) don't need a starting running back in Week 7, Freeman probably should be the priority. He leads the Ravens with 5.9 yards per carry and he's looked shifty in the passing game as well. There's a chance he lands a 15-touch a game role in one of the best offenses in football. Le'Veon Bell should also be added, but not with as much enthusiasm.
If Antonio Gibson is unable to go we project Patterson as a mid-range flex with No. 2 running back upside in a timeshare with J.D. McKissic. Patterson would probably need a touchdown to pay off big, and we don't expect Gibson to miss an extended period, so don't go too crazy with your FAB.
I'm not ready to start Stevenson yet, but his role in the passing game (and the red zone) is very encouraging. Damien Harris has dealt with injuries most of this season and has already fumbled twice. You don't have to squint that hard to see a three-down role for Stevenson.
Henry's price is insane this week. It's also not high enough. He's averaging more than 28 Fantasy points per game and he's at home against arguably the worst defense in the NFL. Records may be broken.
No one is going to want to play Herbert against the Buccaneers, for good reason. But if Damien Williams is out, I think he'll get enough touches to make him interesting. And his price is held down by the matchup and his inexperience. This is a tournament only play, but there have been two running backs already this season score more than 30 PPR Fantasy points against the Buccaneers.
