For most of this season, we've ignored anyone on the Houston Texans not named Brandin Cooks. With Mark Ingram traded to the New Orleans Saints, that probably needs to change.
Ingram's absence creates a void of 14 touches from an offense that has been surprisingly reliant on its running backs. The trio of Ingram, David Johnson, and Phillip Lindsay averaged more than 22 carries and 100 total yards the first three weeks of the season. They also averaged 17.7 PPR Fantasy points, essentially the same number as James Robinson. The problem is, split three ways, that's not very enticing.
With Ingram gone, if Johnson or Lindsay grabs 60% of the Texans running back production they would be a flex in the range of what James Conner or Javonte Williams has been so far this season. But Johnson could be even more.
For one thing, Johnson has been far more effective than Lindsay each of the past two seasons. If the team is trying to maximize efficiency they should give Johnson all the touches he can handle. At the very least, they should give him the majority of the carries and all the passing game work, which is generally more valuable. But also, Tyrod Taylor will be returning from IR in the next three weeks. While Taylor is no star, he's a big step up from Davis Mills, which should lead to more scoring opportunities for the running backs.
Treat Johnson like a flex this week, and Lindsay as a stash. Both need to be added before Sunday in a majority of leagues.
Perine is not a bad dart-throw flex if you're desperate. He should handle the fourth quarter work if it's a blowout, and he's been playing a lot on third downs.
Last week's contrarian play is this week's chalk play. Neither the return of Damien Williams nor the Buccaneers defense could slow Herbert down last week. He played 77% of the snaps and became the first running back this year to reach 100 yards against Tampa Bay. He even caught all five of his targets. Herbert is a top-12 running back until David Montgomery returns and huge value in DFS this week.
Tampa Bay has now allowed three straight running backs to average 5 yards per carry. So I'm not totally sure it's still a terrible matchup. But even if it is, Kamara has 19 targets over the past two weeks, so I'm not sure the matchup matters that much.
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Heath's Projections
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