We entered Week 7 with all kinds of questions about Tampa Bay's running back room. I'm not sure we're leaving Week 7 with enough answers. On Monday night, we saw 16 touches for Rachaad White, 12 for Bucky Irving, and six for Sean Tucker. This was a highly unusual game, where the Buccaneers ran 78 plays and lost their top two wide receivers to injury. The percentages paint an even messier picture moving forward.
In terms of target share, White saw a 13% share, with Irving at 6.7% and Tucker at 4.4%. That's mostly bad news for Irving and Tucker, as I would consider anything below eight percent a negative for running backs in PPR. Rush share was even worse, with White at 33%, Irving at 30%, and Tucker at 16.7%, but continuing to be by far the most efficient rusher. In a normal week, those ratios aren't going to make anyone a starting running back.
The question is, what does a normal week look like for this team if they're without Chris Godwin and Mike Evans for the foreseeable future? It may very well mean more rushes and more running back targets. It may also mean that this is a much worse offense that doesn't score as often.
For Week 8, I'm viewing White and Irving as high-end flexes, and I'm trying to continue stashing Tucker for at least one more week. Eventually, one of these backs may fall out of the rotation or get hurt, and then two of them could be very valuable in an offense with a lot of available opportunities.
Now, let's get to the rest of the Week 8 RB Preview:
Week 8 RB Preview
Who's Out
The following players are not being projected to play in Week 8 at this time. Here's what it means:
 
NO
New Orleans
• #3
Age: 27 • Experience: 6 yrs. |
Numbers to know
- 26 -- Kareem Hunt has averaged 26 touches in his two games with the Chiefs. I'm not sure how long he can hold up, but he's a must-start for as long as that is.
- 79% - Alexander Mattison had a 79% rush share in Zamir White's first game back. Mattison is the clear lead back in Las Vegas now.
- 4.57 -- Tank Bigsby is averaging 4.57 yards after contact per rush attempt, the best mark in the league. It will be hard for Doug Pederson to go away from him.
- 13.6% -- Chase Brown's 13.6% explosive rush rate ranks third amongst backs with at least 35 rush attempts. Don't fret over one bad week.
- 25.6% -- Najee Harris' avoid rate is up to 25.6%, by far the best mark of his career.
- 9.7 -- Sean Tucker is averaging 9.7 yards per touch.
Matchups that matter
 
Aaron Jones
RB
MIN
Minnesota
• #33
Age: 31 • Experience: 10 yrs.
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Kareem Hunt
RB
KC
Kansas City
• #29
Age: 31 • Experience: 10 yrs.
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MIA
Miami
• #8
Age: 28 • Experience: 8 yrs.
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Nick Chubb
RB
HOU
Houston
• #21
Age: 30 • Experience: 9 yrs.
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James Conner
RB
ARI
Arizona
• #6
Age: 31 • Experience: 10 yrs.
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DAL
Dallas
• #33
Age: 26 • Experience: 6 yrs.
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Waiver Wire Targets
 
PIT
Pittsburgh
• #30
Age: 27 • Experience: 5 yrs.
In Russell Wilson's first start, Jaylen Warren played a season-high 51% of the offensive snaps and touched the ball 14 times. That didn't translate into Fantasy points in Week 7, but if he's getting double-digit carries and seeing three-plus targets on a weekly basis, Warren is going to be in flex consideration most weeks. And he could be a league winner if something happens to Najee Harris.
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DAL
Dallas
• #32
Age: 25 • Experience: 4 yrs.
We are hopeful Jonathan Taylor is coming back this week, and if he does, Goodson is nothing more than a handcuff. But it does look like he's supplanted Trey Sermon as the top option, and there's still a chance Taylor misses Week 8 or suffers a setback. He has scored double-digit Fantasy points in his last two games and has averaged 5.4 yards per carry on 40 carries over the past two seasons.
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Tyjae Spears
RB
TEN
Tennessee
• #2
Age: 25 • Experience: 4 yrs.
Even if Spears is just a backup when he comes back, he's one of the most electric backups in the league. This is exactly the type of player who should be rostered in most leagues because he's one injury away from being a must-start running back in all formats.
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DFS Plays
 
Breece Hall
RB
NYJ
N.Y. Jets
• #20
Age: 25 • Experience: 5 yrs.
Hall has had 41 touches in two games since the coaching change. He's topped 140 yards from scrimmage and 20 PPR Fantasy points in both games. This week, he faces a Patriots defense that has allowed the second-most Fantasy points to opposing running backs. Hall may just be the No. 1 running back this week, and his price is still being impacted by a couple of bad games earlier this year.
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Tony Pollard
RB
TEN
Tennessee
• #20
Age: 29 • Experience: 8 yrs.
Pollard's Titans are 10.5-point underdogs on the road against a good Lions run defense. That's while he'll be low-rostered. The reason I'm playing him anyway is that he's averaging more than 20 touches per game in his last three outings, and he's twice shown six-target upside. Aaron Jones and Ken Walker have both topped 20 Fantasy points against this defense, and Pollard should get enough work to join them.
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Heath's Projections
My full set of Week 8 Fantasy football projections for every position are now available on SportsLine. You'll find them here. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 8. Projected stats for all starting running backs are available, so be sure to check out the full set of projections at SportsLine.
