Fantasy Football: Week 8 tournament plays for FanDuel and DraftKings
Devontae Booker will be the chalk at RB this week so Heath Cummings looks for contrarian RBs to play with him.
We have thrived on backup running backs as value with Jacquizz Rodgers, Spencer Ware and Jay Ajayi putting on a show the past two weeks. This week a new guy gets a shot with Devontae Booker taking over for C.J. Anderson.
Booker is in an interesting situation because he'll face a defense that has been decent against the run in terms of YPC (4.0) and yards per game (90.1) but terrible in terms of Fantasy points allowed per game (23.3). Normally I'd question the situation, but I expect Denver's defense to completely shut down the Chargers, so Booker's volume should maintain this trend for at least one more week.
That being said, if you're wanting to look for a reason to fade chalk, Booker offers at least a couple of reasons and will be extremely highly owned. Speaking of highly owned, I would expect the Falcons and Packers to be the chalk in terms of game stacking. Both passing games will be highly owned, and Ty Montgomery probably will be too at his low price. Devonta Freeman interests me as a low-owned way to get a chunk of this game, but we'll talk about him and others in just a minute.
Tampa Bay is my favorite stack against a Raiders team that has seemingly been on the road all season and faces a second consecutive game in Florida. While Mike Evans will be owned in close to 40 percent of lineups, I think Winston should be fairly low-owned and like adding Cameron Brate or Adam Humphries if you want to get contrarian. Jacquizz Rodgers remains a chalky play for at least one more week.
Back to Freeman, here are my three favorite RBs that I expect to be below 10 percent owned:
Devonta Freeman (FD $6,900, DK $6,500)
Freeman has the downside of facing an elite Packers run defense, but the upside of likely having the whole show to himself (assuming he's healthy). With Freeman getting another practice on Thursday, I'm not really concerned about the injury, so the matchup is the main issue.
The Packers are only allowing 3.1 YPC, which is pretty close to a non-starter, but they have only faced one running back as good as Freeman, and Ezekiel Elliott ran for 157 yards. The upside with Freeman is volume in a high-scoring game. The floor is helped by his involvement in the passing game.
Freeman will be overlooked because of guys like Spencer Ware and Christine Michael, but his team is favored at home and implied to score more points than any other team this week.
Lamar Miller (FD $7,400, DK $6,300)
Miller is also favored at home, but his offense isn't projected to score nearly as frequently. That coupled with the fact that everyone is focused on the Texans' receivers against the Lions secondary, and Miller's shoulder injury will make him way underowned. More importantly, his matchup is the complete opposite of Devontae Booker's.
The Lions have been gashed for 4.6 YPC this season, but they rank in the bottom half in terms of FP/G allowed to RB because they've yet to give up a rushing touchdown to a RB. That is kind of a fluke, and there's simply no way it continues. You can play Booker over Miller to save money, but don't use his matchup as a reason. Miller's is outstanding as well.
Matt Forte (FD $7,300, DK $6,400)
Speaking of good matchups, this is a dream for Forte. Not so much because of how the Browns play against the run, but because of likely game script. The Jets have clearly shown when they have a lead against an inferior opponent they want to pound the rock with Forte. This is the perfect opportunity.
In season long formats I'm looking to sell Forte and don't believe in him at all. In DFS that doesn't matter and you should take advantage of public perception to get him at low ownership.
FanDuel tournament lineup
QB Jameis Winston $7,400
RB Devonta Freeman $6,900
RB Christine Michael $7,800
WR Mike Evans $7,900
WR Amari Cooper $7,500
WR Willie Snead $6,400
TE Jimmy Graham $6,700
K Cairo Santos $4,600
DST New York Jets $4,700
DraftKings tournament lineup
QB Carson Palmer $7,300
RB Spencer Ware $6,800
RB Devontae Booker $3,700
WR Mike Evans $8,100
WR Larry Fitzgerald $7,500
WR Ty Montgomery $5,300
TE C.J. Fiedorowicz $2,800
FLEX Devonta Freeman $6,500
DST New York Jets $3,400
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