I get frustrated often by the recency bias in Fantasy Football. I'm not sure that's ever been true than last week when people were legitimately concerned about Travis Kelce, who remains the No. 1 tight end in Fantasy Football. But there are times were we need to quickly react to new information. And one of those times is with rookie running backs. Michael Carter is the perfect example.
The Jets came out of their bye in Week 7 and gave Carter a 72% snap share for the first time all season. Then in Week 8, he played 70% of the snaps again. That type of workload will get most running backs into the top 20 all by itself. But Carter is averaging 3.8 yards per carry and plays on one of the worst offenses in the league. I could understand if it wasn't enough to sell you.
Enter Mike White.
White has thrown 77 passes in the past two games and 32 of them (41.5%) have gone to running backs. Even Tom Brady is impressed at that rate of dump-offs. Carter actually leads the Jets in targets with White under center, with 22 in seven quarters.
A running back playing 70% of the snaps and earning more than 10 targets per game is a must-start running back, even if it's a small sample size.
Let's get to the rest of the Week 9 RB Preview:
Week 9 RB Preview
The following players are not being projected to play Week 9 at this time. Here's what it means:
TEN Tennessee • #22
Age: 28 • Experience: 7 yrs.
Adrian Peterson and Jeremy McNichols should split touches in a very tough matchup.
JAC Jacksonville • #25
Age: 23 • Experience: Rookie
Carlos Hyde has a very tough matchup against the Bills if Robinson does in fact miss Week 9.
ATL Atlanta • #8
Age: 30 • Experience: 8 yrs.
Khalil Herbert should remain a workhorse back with 20-plus touches against the Steelers.
Numbers to know
- 450 -- Adrian Peterson needs 450 yards to pass Barry Sanders for fourth all time in rushing yards.
- 25.6% -- Michael Carter leads the Jets with a 25% target share over their past two games.
- 87 -- Khalil Herbert has 87 touches over his past four games. It's hard to sit him even against a tough matchup.
- 72% -- Elijah Mitchell has accounted for 72% of the 49ers rush attempts since the bye. Only Derrick Henry and Najee Harris have a higher rate for the season.
- 66 -- Myles Gaskin has 66 carries this season, the most for a running back without a rushing touchdown.
- 5.2 -- The Texans have allowed 5.2 yards per carry to running backs.
- 11 -- Mike Davis has 11 targets in the two games Calvin Ridley has missed.
Matchups that matter
Waiver Wire Targets
Hyde was the least popular of the waiver wire running backs this week and is still available in three-quarters of leagues. If James Robinson is out this week, Hyde may also be the highest-scoring of the waiver wire running backs.
PHI Philadelphia • #24
Age: 27 • Experience: 7 yrs.
An optimistic take on Howard would be that he takes on a larger role in his second week active. If that happens, he could be a legitimate No. 2 running back against the Chargers.
Derrick Gore RB
KC Kansas City • #40
Age: 27 • Experience: 2 yrs.
Gore's role is uncertain, but he looked a lot better running the ball than Darrel Williams. Williams isn't leaving on passing downs, so Gore is a better add in non-PPR.
Nick Chubb RB
CLE Cleveland • #24
Age: 26 • Experience: 5 yrs.
Chubb is my No. 1 back this week in non and half PPR. This has been a good Bengals defense, but they got exposed a little bit last week and I love the opportunity to play an underpriced Chubb without Kareem Hunt. Expect 20-plus touches and Fantasy points.
ATL Atlanta • #84
Age: 31 • Experience: 10 yrs.
Patterson's roster rate could be held down by the Saints' exceptional run defense and the Falcons' low implied point total. But I'm not shying away from a back who has averaged 17.5 touches and 18.3 PPR Fantasy points in two games without Calvin Ridley.
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