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I get frustrated often by the recency bias in Fantasy Football. I'm not sure that's ever been true than last week when people were legitimately concerned about Travis Kelce, who remains the No. 1 tight end in Fantasy Football. But there are times were we need to quickly react to new information. And one of those times is with rookie running backs. Michael Carter is the perfect example.

The Jets came out of their bye in Week 7 and gave Carter a 72% snap share for the first time all season. Then in Week 8, he played 70% of the snaps again. That type of workload will get most running backs into the top 20 all by itself. But Carter is averaging 3.8 yards per carry and plays on one of the worst offenses in the league. I could understand if it wasn't enough to sell you.

Enter Mike White.

White has thrown 77 passes in the past two games and 32 of them (41.5%) have gone to running backs. Even Tom Brady is impressed at that rate of dump-offs. Carter actually leads the Jets in targets with White under center, with 22 in seven quarters.

A running back playing 70% of the snaps and earning more than 10 targets per game is a must-start running back, even if it's a small sample size.

Let's get to the rest of the Week 9 RB Preview:

Week 9 RB Preview
RB Preview
Who's Out

The following players are not being projected to play Week 9 at this time. Here's what it means:

Who's Out
Projections powered by Sportsline
TEN Tennessee • #22
Age: 28 • Experience: 7 yrs.
Adrian Peterson and Jeremy McNichols should split touches in a very tough matchup.
JAC Jacksonville • #25
Age: 23 • Experience: Rookie
Carlos Hyde has a very tough matchup against the Bills if Robinson does in fact miss Week 9.
ATL Atlanta • #8
Age: 30 • Experience: 8 yrs.
Khalil Herbert should remain a workhorse back with 20-plus touches against the Steelers.
RB Preview
Numbers to know
  • 450 -- Adrian Peterson needs 450 yards to pass Barry Sanders for fourth all time in rushing yards.
  • 25.6% -- Michael Carter leads the Jets with a 25% target share over their past two games.
  • 87 -- Khalil Herbert has 87 touches over his past four games. It's hard to sit him even against a tough matchup.
  • 72% -- Elijah Mitchell has accounted for 72% of the 49ers rush attempts since the bye. Only Derrick Henry and Najee Harris have a higher rate for the season.
  • 66 -- Myles Gaskin has 66 carries this season, the most for a running back without a rushing touchdown.
  • 5.2 -- The Texans have allowed 5.2 yards per carry to running backs.
  • 11 -- Mike Davis has 11 targets in the two games Calvin Ridley has missed.
RB Preview
Matchups that matter
Matchups that Matter
Projections powered by Sportsline
MIA Miami • #37
Age: 25 • Experience: 4 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
vs HOU MIA -6.5 O/U 46
OPP VS RB
25th
PROJ PTS
13.5
RB RNK
14th
YTD Stats
RUYDS
279
REC
31
REYDS
165
TD
3
FPTS/G
11.7
JAC Jacksonville • #24
Age: 31 • Experience: 9 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
vs BUF BUF -14.5 O/U 49
OPP VS RB
1st
PROJ PTS
7.4
RB RNK
24th
YTD Stats
RUYDS
140
REC
8
REYDS
54
TD
0
FPTS/G
4.6
CAR Carolina • #30
Age: 22 • Experience: Rookie
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
vs NE NE -4 O/U 41
OPP VS RB
22nd
PROJ PTS
8.7
RB RNK
20th
YTD Stats
RUYDS
391
REC
18
REYDS
119
TD
2
FPTS/G
9.9
DAL Dallas • #20
Age: 25 • Experience: 3 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
vs DEN DAL -10 O/U 49.5
OPP VS RB
13th
PROJ PTS
9.2
RB RNK
30th
YTD Stats
RUYDS
392
REC
16
REYDS
116
TD
1
FPTS/G
10.4
RB Preview
Waiver Wire Targets
Week 9 Adds
JAC Jacksonville • #24
Age: 31 • Experience: 9 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
vs BUF BUF -14.5 O/U 48.5
OPP VS RB
1st
RB RNK
25th
ROSTERED
22%
YTD Stats
RUYDS
140
REC
8
REYDS
54
TD
0
FPTS/G
4.6
Hyde was the least popular of the waiver wire running backs this week and is still available in three-quarters of leagues. If James Robinson is out this week, Hyde may also be the highest-scoring of the waiver wire running backs.
PHI Philadelphia • #24
Age: 27 • Experience: 7 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
vs LAC LAC -1.5 O/U 50
OPP VS RB
21st
RB RNK
43rd
ROSTERED
32%
YTD Stats
RUYDS
57
REC
0
REYDS
0
TD
2
FPTS/G
17.7
An optimistic take on Howard would be that he takes on a larger role in his second week active. If that happens, he could be a legitimate No. 2 running back against the Chargers.
KC Kansas City • #40
Age: 27 • Experience: 2 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
vs GB KC -7.5 O/U 48
OPP VS RB
20th
RB RNK
NR
ROSTERED
21%
YTD Stats
RUYDS
48
REC
1
REYDS
7
TD
1
FPTS/G
4.2
Gore's role is uncertain, but he looked a lot better running the ball than Darrel Williams. Williams isn't leaving on passing downs, so Gore is a better add in non-PPR.
Stash
SF San Francisco • #30
Age: 26 • Experience: 4 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
vs ARI SF -1 O/U 45
OPP VS RB
11th
RB RNK
NR
ROSTERED
17%
Wilson is returning to practice this week and could be ready to play in the next three weeks. Elijah Mitchell is nursing a rib injury as well.
RB Preview
DFS Plays
Top Play
Projections powered by Sportsline
CLE Cleveland • #24
Age: 26 • Experience: 5 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ CIN CIN -3 O/U 47
OPP VS RB
28th
PROJ PTS
12.3
RB RNK
12th
YTD Stats
RUYDS
584
REC
6
REYDS
43
TD
4
FPTS/G
15.1
Chubb is my No. 1 back this week in non and half PPR. This has been a good Bengals defense, but they got exposed a little bit last week and I love the opportunity to play an underpriced Chubb without Kareem Hunt. Expect 20-plus touches and Fantasy points.
Contrarian Play
Projections powered by Sportsline
ATL Atlanta • #84
Age: 31 • Experience: 10 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ NO NO -6 O/U 42
OPP VS RB
2nd
PROJ PTS
15
RB RNK
8th
YTD Stats
RUYDS
268
REC
32
REYDS
333
TD
7
FPTS/G
19.2
Patterson's roster rate could be held down by the Saints' exceptional run defense and the Falcons' low implied point total. But I'm not shying away from a back who has averaged 17.5 touches and 18.3 PPR Fantasy points in two games without Calvin Ridley.
RB Preview
Heath's Projections

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