Fantasy & Reality: Addition by subtraction
Getting ready for that Fantasy playoff push? Our Dave Richard gives some guidelines on who is worth keeping on a roster for the stretch run in your leagues in his latest edition of Fantasy & Reality.
There isn't a ton of advice to impart with two games left in the regular season of Fantasy Football (assuming your playoffs kick in Week 14). But if there's a basic principle that everyone should keep in mind when looking over their rosters, it's this: Be prepared.
What if you lost Adrian Peterson to a high-ankle sprain? Or Jay Cutler to a broken thumb? Or Jeremy Maclin, Julio Jones or Miles Austin to a nagging hamstring injury? Would your roster be ready for such calamities? If it's not, then it's time to get ready. You've got two important games left to play in your leagues, so getting your rosters fine-tuned so that they're ready for the playoff push is mighty important.
You need to have the right guys on your bench -- just in case.
Let's start at running back, where there are all sorts of depth issues to cover. If you did well on Draft Day or played the waivers right, you might be loaded at running back -- so much so that you're making tough lineup decisions among Top-15 players every week. Obviously you're not cutting anyone there; you just need to make good choices from week to week.
Then there are the real-life handcuffs, who are important for obvious reasons too. If Arian Foster is your top back, it makes sense to have Ben Tate or even Derrick Ward, so that if bad news comes you won't have to panic.
Not all handcuffs are created equal, though. Think Toby Gerhart will produce anything close to what Adrian Peterson puts up in a given week? Ditto that for Cadillac Williams in St. Louis with Steven Jackson and the pair of underachieving rushers in Seattle behind Marshawn Lynch. In some cases it might be better to back up your studs with the best available running backs out there rather than their second stringers, though getting both might be ideal.
Here's a look at all the backup running backs in the league as it stands right now. We've ranked them in order of most desirable to least in the event the backup becomes the starter. This way, you can see which starting running backs should be handcuffed, and which backup running backs simply aren't worth adding to rosters in place of other players at the position.
Long story short, if you're carrying any of these backup running backs, there better be a reason for it.
The same logic applies for wide receivers: Know who you're starting and carry a backup or two in case of an emergency. But here's something that might fry your brain: Only 33 wide receivers are started in at least 50 percent of CBSSports.com leagues when healthy (this includes currently injured receivers like Miles Austin and A.J. Green).
Recognizing the dead weight at wide receiver will help. Here's a simple rule of thumb for finding those unnecessary players: Any receiver starting in less than 30 percent and owned in less than 70 percent of CBSSports.com leagues isn't going to help your team unless you're totally weak and need all the help you can get.
Now if you have receivers who fit this criteria, it doesn't mean you must cut them right now. It just means they're candidates to be cut if you want to get help elsewhere, such as adding running back depth. Here are some receivers worth hanging on to based on the kind of league you're in or if you're willing to carry one as a sleeper for late-season success (note that sleepers are worth holding on to in any format unless specified below).
|Worth owning as:||Standard||PPR||Sleeper|
Quarterbacks and tight ends are sort of in the same boat: You know who the studs are and you know who the studs aren't. If you have a stud at either position, is it worth it to carry a backup? For instance, if you're only required to start one and you're not in a league 14 or more teams, does it make sense to have more than one quarterback and tight end?
The answer, in my opinion, lies on the waiver wire. If your league already has a bunch of free-agent quarterbacks and tight ends suitable for starting duty on waivers, then you don't need to hog a roster spot with a backup. Let the waiver wire carry the backup for you.
Pretty much any quarterback regularly started in less than 60 percent of leagues is pretty much a backup, with one very notable exception: Tim Tebow. As long as he stays productive, he's a consideration to start from week to week based on who else you have on your team. Everyone else isn't quite there -- guys like Joe Flacco and Mark Sanchez probably won't start for many of you and are only worth keeping if everyone else in your league is keeping a backup.
The only way it pays to carry a second tight end is if you have no confidence in your first tight end. There are not many reliable No. 1 tight ends this year -- the turnover at the position has come at an alarming rate. Only nine tight ends are regularly started in at least 70 percent of leagues. If you have one of those tight ends, it's a safe bet that he'll be the only one you need. Let's call them Dominant-Tier tight ends.
If you don't have one of them, carrying two from the secondary group of tight ends isn't the end of the world. It's not ideal, because you have to make lineup decisions from week to week and of course spare an extra roster spot.
High- to low-end backup
|Jimmy Graham||Kellen Winslow|
|Rob Gronkowski||Greg Olsen|
|Antonio Gates||Fred Davis|
|Jason Witten||Brent Celek|
|Tony Gonzalez||Jake Ballard|
|Vernon Davis||Brandon Pettigrew|
|Aaron Hernandez||Dustin Keller|
|Jermichael Finley||Ed Dickson|
|Owen Daniels||Jermaine Gresham|
If you own a dominant tight end and another tight end from the second list, it's probably a safe call to cut the second tight end.
Nothing fancy when it comes to kickers and DSTs, people. Unless your league requires you to do so, don't carry any more than one kicker and one DST. Again, the byes are over. Yes, this includes the sneaky Fantasy owners who drafted the Packers DST and poached the 49ers DST off waivers back in September. There's no need to carry two -- pick one and go with them.
Finally, there's an all-encompassing rule I wanted to pass along, a rule I've followed my entire life when it comes to adds and drops. Call it Dave's Law of Drops: If you think the player you're looking at dropping would get picked up in a heartbeat, then he's not worth letting go.
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